@hannah_tdo@FossGregfoss For "debt spiral" to be guaranteed in this model is seems necessary not just to have total debt in dollars increasing, but also debt to GDP ratio not able to decrease so the debt also gets harder to repay.
@hannah_tdo@FossGregfoss I agree the size of debt would get bigger in dollar terms, but the debt to GDP ratio would be decrease so long as GDP was higher than 3%. If nothing else changed, in the long run it would become trivial to repay all debt. No guaranteed debt spiral.
Total global debt to GDP is 4x
If average interest rate is 3%, then global GDP needs to grow at 12% annually just to keep pace with the organic growth of the debt
Is 12% GDP growth likely (not even considering new deficits?)
The debt spiral accelerates. Pure #math.
#btc
@drewrobb@FossGregfoss The gdp does not compound, it is linear growth. The debt is always compounding. That’s the difference. After two years, GDP might be $106, but debt is $424.36
@FossGregfoss GDP is $100, debt is $400. After a year GDP is $103 and debt is $412 ($12 interest at 3%), debt to GDP is still 4x. This is stable without some other term in the model, is it not? What am I missing?
@FossGregfoss If GDP growth is just 3% matching the interest rate, the Debt/GDP would stay constant at 4x, assuming no new debt other than interest, as both the numerator and denominator are growing at 3% per year. What are the other assumptions here that make a debt spiral?
@SF_emergency@Jason@LondonBreed Could you please try to make the binding orders consistent with the recommendations? If the SIP order is still active, then you are offering guidance that encourages breaking the law.
@Jason@LondonBreed No, SIP isn't over yet, but we know people have the need to see and check in on family and friends. These are some best practices if you do meet with others for your mental health.
The safest thing you can do to protect yourself from COVID-19 is to stay home, but we recognize that people may choose to begin seeing their friends and family again.
Here are steps you can take to reduce the risk for yourself and those around you: sf.gov/safersocializi…
If you're a runner or cyclist, heading out for an impromptu workout can be a gamble: You'll likely find yourself dodging traffic on a path punctuated by stop lights. Strava's new tool hopes to remedy that, by building routes based on your finger swipes. wired.trib.al/fZAPFpy
@RheingoldRiver i remember @drewrobb telling me his friend was like a world champion arimaa player and was wondering how that game holds up in the post alpha-zero world