Dr. Patty Ann Tublin

With Ukraine now clearly intending to and having the capability to destroy all Russian oil infrastructure within 2,200km of the Ukrainian border, here is what it means for Russia: ​Refining wiped out: 85% of Russia's processing capacity (5.8 million barrels/day) is in the strike zone. Losing these plants means Russia cannot make its own gasoline or diesel, forcing them to import fuel just to keep their military and economy moving. ​$230 Billion revenue at risk: Russia’s entire annual oil export income is now under threat. Even the limited strikes to date have already caused over $12 billion in direct damages and lost profits. ​Export collapse: The main western ports are all within range. This halts 4 million barrels of daily exports, physically cutting off the Kremlin's primary source of international cash. ​Drilling freeze: Beyond the 2 million barrels/day of drilling directly in range, the central pumping stations for "safe" Siberian oil are also vulnerable. If these hubs are hit, Siberian oil becomes trapped in the ground with nowhere to go. ​Permanent destruction: If production is forced to stop during the winter, the oil wells and pipes will freeze and crack. This could permanently destroy 30% of Russia’s total oil supply, as these complex systems cannot be rebuilt without Western parts. The model of "Russian Federation" with Moscow at the center, would no longer exist.