john f roberts

'What the US is doing at the moment is degrading that capability of Iran, and I think that's very important,' NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said, backing US-Israeli strikes on Iran

Iran’s strike last night wiped out 17% of Qatar’s natural gas export capacity, repairs are expected to take three to five years -Reuters (Based prewar market estimates, Iran managed to destroy ~3.5% of global LNG capacity in a single strike.)

The Iranian theory of the war boils down to "everyone else has a lot more to lose than we do". A question that should follow: what if that's true, but it doesn't end up mattering on a timetable that's helpful to the regime? There's a scenario in which the world staggers out of this with a prolonged energy crisis that does enormous damage to the global economy *and* things end very, very badly for the regime and Iran as a whole.

I still think Trump will TACO—because he *has* to TACO. Oil loss it too big, too politically untenable. While the damage is already extensive and recovery will already be a months-long ordeal, it can get so, so much worse and this is fundamentally a crisis of lost time. People will push back and say it isn't up to Trump anymore. But while there are two other major parties in this war, Trump remains the 1) most important, and 2) most movable by external pressures (like, say, oil prices), so it's gotta be him.

It’s over guys

Iran is firing MORE and they are hitting MORE per shot than during the first days of the conflict. Not good..

Very bad for Britain, which is uniquely susceptible. 1/ The Iran war sent British wholesale gas prices surging — up nearly 90% in a month. This hits Britain with unique force because the nation remains 75% dependent on fossil fuels for its primary energy needs. 2/ As gas sets the marginal price for all electricity, a spike in the Middle East becomes an immediate, unavoidable tax on every British business and household. 3/ The reality is crushing. Analysts warn of household bills hitting £2,500 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for more than six weeks. 4/ As energy-driven inflation surges, hopes for interest rate cuts have vanished. Britain is now servicing a £2.9 trillion debt mountain with £114 billion of interest expected to be paid this year. That’s nearly double the nation’s entire core defense budget. 5/To make matters worse, Britain has no supply buffer. Westminster based its storage needs on optimistic assumptions of frictionless global markets. It has a maximum gas storage capacity of just twelve days. Compare that to Germany’s 89 days, France’s 103, or the Netherlands’ 123. 6/ Unable to stockpile, Britain is forced to buy gas at the worst possible moment. European gas futures have already surged above €60 per megawatt-hour, roughly six times the US price. 7/Britain’s main gas provider, Norway, is at maximum capacity, and Qatar (the UK’s swing supplier) had already declared force majeure, halting shipping after the unprecedented shutdown at Ras Laffan. Now, missile attacks on Ras Laffan, and threats by Trump to pull out of the Strait of Hormuz.

We’ve just put our latest issue to bed. Christopher Caldwell has written the cover. He argues that the Iran war will likely mark the end of Trumpism:

A source in the region tells me that the Israeli strike on the Iran gas field was *not coordinated with the U.S. Israeli officials said the strike was coordinated with and approved by the Trump administration.

إيران الآن | خاص | مصدر دبلوماسي في الخارجية الإيرانية لشبكة إيران الآن: - للمرة الثالثة اليوم أرسلت واشنطن رسالة، عبر إحدى دول المنطقة، طلبت فيها وقف الحرب - الطلب الأمريكي أُرفق هذه المرة مع تهديد بزيادة وتيرة الاغتيالات داخل إيران في حال عدم تجاوب طهران - إيران أكدت أن موقفها لم يتغيّر، فلا وقف للحرب قبل تحقيق أهداف طهران المُعلنة على لسان مسؤوليها