@RichardMNephew Because you really do want to see it. The algorithm knows all.
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Daniel Sternoff
62 posts
Huh. Every time I check Twitter today, I get this ad. I click "don't want to see it" and yet it keeps coming back. Huh.
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Or is it something even stranger: the Houthi Alpenfestung, a national retreat for the day when Sanaa and the Red Sea coast is gone, and the Houthis need to take everything that maters underground.
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Interesting how much preparation the Houthis have been putting into this - something I suspected for a long time due to the inexplicable amounts of steel, wood and other construction materials being imported (at a time when Yemenis are deeply food-insecure). 🧵
Basha باشا@BashaReport
The tunnel system @VleckieHond spotted near Dhahyan, Sa’dah—the Houthis bastion in North Yemen—is massive maps.app.goo.gl/pkt9rQnZdxF4ke…
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@DsrPrivate Fiscal conservative scream and yell but Trump strong arms them, we get wider deficits
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@DsrPrivate Scenario C) House passes a bill, Senate passes its bill. Conference is a mess, deal needs to be cut by Trump, who complicates the negotiation. Compromise: Congress uses current policy not current law as the baseline for a $4.5ish T headline.
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@DsrPrivate So Senate still pushing two bill approach. My contacts think once Trump discovers House bill doesn’t give him what he wants, he pressures fiscal conservatives to loosen up. That and they are trying to bake in a high GDP assumption to pick up more revenue
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@DsrPrivate At $4.7T, the House framework will not allow Trump to get his new priorities (no taxes on tips/overtime, etc) and I understand $880bn in cuts in the House framework (IRA provisions) will not pass a Senate Byrd bath, per parliamentarian ruling.
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@DsrPrivate Impossible to know if the fiscal impulse is going to expand or contract
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@DsrPrivate I find the math impossible…don’t know what tariffs may raise. Don’t know DOGE effects. House Rs can’t agree a tax top line so we will see the Senate move first on energy/immigration/defense reconciliation and punt taxes until later.
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@DsrPrivate Can make a legit case for wider deficits (trump insists on no taxes on tips and some other priorities, refuses to touch Medicaid/medicare, Congress baseline for a tax bill is current policy not current law) as for slightly narrower deficits (the case you lay out).
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@DsrPrivate "several" members wanted a cut in July (I read "several" = as at least 4) and there was no dissent. Assume Powell will figure out how to split this baby
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@DsrPrivate How do you think equities would respond to an above expectations CPI print? obv 2s retrace some recession probability but what would spoos and Russell do in your opinion?
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@DsrPrivate Agree with that…my main Q is if they’re ok with taking three+ quarters via 25s at each of the next 8 meetings to get to that zone
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@DsrPrivate The question for me is not 25/50 in Sept but how fast do they need to move toward neutral and how will that be signaled. Thoughts?
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The new "supercore" services employment: services payrolls, excluding government, retail, wholesale, healthcare, utility and temporary help sub-sectors 🤔
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla
PANTHEON: S&P services #PMI employment index “plunged to 47.3, from 51.5 in March, and now is well below its average in the 2010s .. It signals a clear risk of an outright drop in private services payrolls, excluding the retail, wholesale, healthcare, utility and temporary help sub-sectors .. its current weakness should be taken seriously ..” @PantheonMacro #NFP 🇺🇸
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