River—海妖 🪼

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River—海妖 🪼

River—海妖 🪼

@east_web3

Bio-hacking |科技 | 投资 与世界先进思想共情 你的心胸要大,才能走的很远很远

Katılım Eylül 2013
441 Takip Edilen1.4K Takipçiler
River—海妖 🪼
River—海妖 🪼@east_web3·
$HYPE 喊到1000刀,意味着什么? 我帮你算一道小学数学题:HYPE总量10亿枚,乘以1000刀,FDV等于1万亿美元。 1万亿是什么概念?比特币现在总市值的一半。超过巴菲特的伯克希尔。高盛市值的6倍多。 让一个年利润8亿、靠监管灰色地带活着的链上衍生品平台,撑起1万亿的估值——这不是情绪溢价,这是庞氏末期的集体幻觉。 再说那个"重新定义金融"的宏大叙事。 HYPE想让你在链上一秒交易美股、黄金、房产?听起来很美。但只要底层锚定的是真实资产,你就绕不开SEC。要合规,就得KYC,就得实名,就得审查。一旦走向合规,它引以为傲的"无视监管、一秒开仓"的核心优势,瞬间归零。 它会变成一个体验更差的链上盈透证券。 所以HYPE面对一个无解的悖论:不合规,机构资金进不来;合规了,现有用户跑光了。 但这里有一个反直觉的真相—— 叙事本身就是燃料。 不管逻辑上有多少漏洞,只要足够多的人相信"HYPE能到1000刀",这个共识本身就能把价格推到你根本想不到的荒谬高度。 所以最清醒的玩法不是嘲笑这个叙事,而是理解它、利用它,然后在大众狂欢的顶点,把筹码派发给那些真的相信"重新定义人类金融"的人。 看懂泡沫的人,不一定不买泡沫。 他们只是知道自己在买什么。
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River—海妖 🪼
River—海妖 🪼@east_web3·
@macrotradecn 华为这套路线是真实的,但"宣告摩尔时代终结"说得太满。 被卡住先进光刻机的华为,被迫更早押注3D堆叠和系统级封装这条路——别人还在把同一层楼的房间做小,华为改成往上盖楼。 这个方向整个行业都在走,台积电、英特尔也在做,华为只是因为没有退路所以走得更激进。
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杰克船长宏观策略
杰克船长宏观策略@macrotradecn·
未来十年的主要路线,华为正式宣告传统纳米制程摩尔时代终结,提出用τ时间缩放新理论,不靠精进先进光刻,转而靠芯片逻辑折叠、晶圆3D堆叠、封装架构重构、系统光互联,通过三维集成与全栈时延优化,在现有制程上持续翻倍提升芯片性能、密度与算力,并且给出了2026–2035年明确技术落地和迭代推进路线。
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River—海妖 🪼
River—海妖 🪼@east_web3·
@iamai_omni PWR和GEV处于这个缺口最直接的位置——一个负责把电送过来,一个负责稳定可调度地发出来。 气候周期叠加AI周期,这两个标的的订单能见度可能比市场现在定价的还要高。
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✧ 𝕀𝔸𝕄𝔸𝕀 ✧
如果担心芯片半导体太高,不妨看看电力设备板块,制造出来的芯片总需要地方部署,长期确定性极强,相关公司的估值相比半导体安全边际高很多。 $VRT 最纯的数据中心基础设施高弹性标的之一,受益于 UPS、热管理、机柜电源、液冷等需求。公司 2026 Q1 销售额同比增长 30%,并上调全年展望。 $ETN 更稳健的电气设备龙头,受益于数据中心配电、开关设备、低中压设备。其 Electrical Americas 12 个月滚动订单同比增长 42%,电气积压订单同比增长 48%。 $GEV 受益于燃气轮机、并网、电气化设备需求。公司披露电气化业务当季获得 24 亿美元数据中心相关设备订单,超过此前全年水平。 $PWR Quanta Services(PWR)做输电、并网、电力基础设施工程,属于“把电送到数据中心”的公司。公司 Q1 2026 剩余履约义务 262 亿美元、总 backlog 485 亿美元。
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子时
子时@silverfang88·
看了大半天 一堆没赚到A9 C9 也大概率没有A8 C8的人 如何通过移民避税和炒美股 兄弟们 先把钱几把赚兜里了再考虑这些吧 等你有钱了 自然也整明白自己的避税路径了
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River—海妖 🪼
River—海妖 🪼@east_web3·
$80M inflows sound impressive, but worth noting the context: total HYPE FDV at current prices already implies a valuation rivaling major traditional exchanges. Institutional buying a narrative early doesn't mean the narrative survives the next regulatory cycle — especially for a protocol whose core edge is operating outside KYC frameworks. Strong inflows into an ETF wrapper is also somewhat ironic for a "decentralized" exchange thesis.
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Hyperliquid Daily
Hyperliquid Daily@HYPERDailyTK·
🔥 hyperliquid:native ETFs are seeing strong institutional interest right now. Bitwise’s BHYP and 21Shares’ THYP have pulled in over $80 million in total net inflows since launching earlier this month — with multiple days topping $10M–$25M. Wall Street is clearly buying the Hyperliquid story: fast-growing revenue, on-chain activity, and real DeFi utility. This kind of early demand is a solid signal for continued institutional adoption.
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River—海妖 🪼
River—海妖 🪼@east_web3·
@qinbafrank 柴油发电机应急过渡能理解,但长期成本和排放都是隐患。SMR方向我在关注但还没深入研究, 微软亚马逊提前卡位这个动作本身挺说明问题的。 标的上我还在学习阶段,你觉得现在布局电力链条,哪个环节的确定性最高呢 ~
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qinbafrank
qinbafrank@qinbafrank·
说到很到位,不过现在电网改造太慢了、都是尽可能接入现有电网或者自建发电站、Xai的两个数据中心都是买了还是要发行柴油发电机。800vhdc我推文也说到了是配电环节。大型核电早读并网、小型核心还略早期。我推文也是说800vhdc是机房配电环节。但是把他当作都是糊数据中心大电力版图的一块。不知你有看好哪些标的呢?
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qinbafrank@qinbafrank·
AI电力卡在哪些环节?从发电厂到GPU机柜,一张图聊聊AI电力链条上卡脖子环节的逻辑。Serenity今天开始喊800VDC了x.com/qinbafrank/sta…,其实英伟达力推的800VDC属于大电力环节中的数据中心机房配电环节。要配好电电,得先有电。最近电力紧缺趋势越来越严重,5月中以来美国最大电力市场PJMInterconnection的电价出现「不可逆转」的大幅上涨,涨幅高达 76%。PJM覆盖的区域包括弗吉尼亚、马里兰、宾夕法尼亚等超过十个州,恰好是美国AI基础设施最密集的区域之一。马上进入夏季,又是整个用电能换消耗的高峰。梳理下 1、电力卡住数据中心脖子的逻辑 数据中心 18–36 个月就能建好,但输电、变电站、大型变压器、燃气轮机、可调度电源的建设周期动辄 4–8 年,甚至更长。负荷高度集中、负荷率极高、可靠性要求极严,这就把矛盾彻底激化了。 IEA l数据表明:全球数据中心用电 2024 年 415 TWh → 2030 年 945 TWh,净增 530 TWh,折算平均功率约 60.5 GW。按 85–95% 高负荷率+冗余设计,实际对电网和设备链的压力接近 80–100 GW 级接入容量。 美国同期增量在149–404TWh,对应新增平均功率17–46 GW,按 LBNL 50% 利用率口径,2028 年总功率需求可能达 74–132 GW。 2、数据中心的建设能能带动一大批电力相关产业链条 每 100 MW AI数据中心园区拉动: • 100–150 MW 公用事业接入容量 • 多台主变+备用变压器 • 高压/中压开关站 • UPS、PDU、母线、备用发电机 • 数万米电缆 + 大型冷却系统 + EPC 一个 100MW AI数据中心园区就是120 MW 表计负荷(PUE 1.2),一年接近 0.95 TWh; 1GW数据中心直接 9.46 TWh——相当于一个中小国家全年用电。AI 不是买服务器,是在建一座小型电力系统。 AI数据中心对电力需求不是简单多发多少度电,而是要在极短时间内完成发电-输电-变电-配电-园区电气-备电-冷却一整套系统工程。 3、电力行业的逻辑已经发生变化: AI数据中心的竞争,已经从芯片、服务器,打到了电力资产。谁能拿到稳定电力,谁就能更快把数据中心建起来。 谁有电网、储能、并网和现场供电能力,谁就会被重新定价。 投资核心逻辑就一句话:最稀缺的不是电,而是已有并网点 + 已有可调度电源 + 能快速交付电网设备的组合。 详细的可以看推文配图、应该是比较清晰全面的了。 本条由@bitget_zh赞助,「Bitget 买美股:秒级入场,丝滑交易 」
qinbafrank tweet media
qinbafrank@qinbafrank

AI正在重塑美国的电力版图,昨天AI电力领域的大新闻就是NextEraEnergy宣布以670亿美元收购DominionEnergy,创下美国历史上最大的公用事业并购纪录。这两家都是什么公司?为什么要花这么大代价? Dominion弗吉尼亚最主要的电力供应商。那里正是美国数据中心最密集的区域之一,被业内称为“Data Center Alley”,数据中心走廊。这里集中了全球密度最高的数据中心群,AWS、微软、谷歌、Meta 的大量服务器,就藏在这片看起来平平无奇的土地上。据估计,全球约 70% 的互联网流量每天都要经过这里。 Dominion已经连接了几百个数据中心,数据中心用电占它弗吉尼亚电力销售的比例很高。同时Dominion手里握着超过51GW的数据中心合同需求——51 GW,这是个什么概念?大约相当于 50 座大型核电站的装机容量,而且这个数字还在持续增长。 NextEra本身又是美国最大的风能和太阳能发电商有发电、储能、输电和新能源开发能力。这就是NextEra愿意掏出670亿美元的核心原因,不是为了买一家传统电力公司,而是为了买下 AI 时代最稀缺的资源——接近算力核心的「供电权」。 这次收购 Dominion,不只是简单的规模扩张。相当于把 NextEra 的清洁能源和储能能力,叠加到 Dominion 在数据中心走廊的市场地位上,这才是这笔交易真正的战略价值所在。 电力行业的逻辑也在发生变化,谁控制数据中心最缺电区域的接入权、输配电权、发电开发权和监管关系,谁就能享受最大的估值溢价。 而前两天5 月 16 日,一份来自 Monitoring Analytics 的报告揭示,美国最大电力市场 PJM Interconnection 的电价出现「不可逆转」的大幅上涨,涨幅高达 76%。PJM 覆盖的区域包括弗吉尼亚、马里兰、宾夕法尼亚等超过十个州,恰好是 AI 基础设施最密集的区域之一。 这样意味着电力紧缺也是越来明显,特别是马上进入夏季用电能源消耗的高峰。其实可以关注下电力领域的。 AI数据中心的竞争,已经从芯片、服务器,打到了电力资产。谁能拿到稳定电力,谁就能更快把数据中心建起来。 谁有电网、储能、并网和现场供电能力,谁就会被重新定价。

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River—海妖 🪼
River—海妖 🪼@east_web3·
@silverfang88 制裁是天花板,但压死小米股价的还有三座山:整个中国科技股2021年后的估值重置、手机市场见顶、以及造车带来的巨额开支和不确定性。地缘政治只是其中一条线~
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子时
子时@silverfang88·
知道为什么小米股价 一直都被卡的死死的吗? 这次可以拿出来说说了 在造车之前 2021年1月特朗普政府马上要结束 美国国防部将小米列入 中国共产党军事公司名单 主要限制美国投资者 购买或持有小米证券 小米股价阴跌到和拜登政府和解 2025年1月底 特朗普又回来了 小米股价当即见顶跳水 短暂拉回后继续阴跌至今
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River—海妖 🪼
River—海妖 🪼@east_web3·
V神:以太坊基金会要"瘦身"了 少卖$ETH,少管闲事,把真正重要的事做好。 基金会不替整个生态背锅,也不替所有方向买单。 技术方向上V神提了三件事:用AI辅助做到"可证明无漏洞"、共识层可用性、以及去中介化。 他还特别点了一句:以太坊不靠速度竞争,那是走向平庸的路。 言下之意很清楚——Solana们可以继续卷TPS,以太坊要守的是抗审查、隐私、安全这条护城河。 做得少,活得长。这是以太坊基金会给自己选的路。 😂
vitalik.eth@VitalikButerin

Some of my perspective on where the @ethereumfndn is going. First of all, this is only my own view. The board is not just me, and I have no extra special powers on the board that the other board members do not. @aerugoettinea is the one executing much of this transition. My input has been largely on technical questions. The board is in the process of expanding, and my own power within the org will continue to decrease, which is honestly what I want. The 2025 era brought many important improvements to EF and its ability to execute. Many issues were resolved, and EF continues to benefit from its improved efficiency and greater focus on concrete goals to this day. And so with those problems resolved, early this year, the largest remaining hole that I perceived was something different nagging at me: I would regularly spot people saying things like "vitalik says these beautiful things about ethereum needing to be decentralized, and have privacy, and be a sanctuary technology, but why do the EF's actions not reflect that?" Now, you may have been hearing something different. You may not have been sensing a feeling of crisis at all, and maybe were hearing people saying that finally we were taking execution and BD seriously and the main task for us is to keep going that way and be even better and faster. Then probably there is genuine difference between you and me, in what kinds of criticism I take most seriously, and what kinds of critics through their criticism are most able to make me feel pain. As an analogy, let's briefly switch over to a different domain. One belief you can have about Google is that it is a success story, and has brought a lot of good to humanity in organizing the world's information. Another belief you can have about Google is that they had a beautiful idealistic beginning, but at some point the corruption of mainstream corporate attitudes seeped in, and they slowly bit by bit completely abandoned the "don't be evil" slogan. My belief on Google specifically is probably somewhere between the two. BUT, if you had taken me back in time to ~2008, and offered me a button to press to make Google one or two standard deviations more "dogmatic", eg. give Richard Stallman permanent veto power over some key policies, I would immediately press it. Why? Because a choice for one company is not a choice for the world, or even one country. Google existed and exists in the context of a technology industry generally drifting away from early idealistic don't-be-evil roots and toward greed for financial gain, totalizing visions of accelerated superintelligence, infiltration by sociopaths, and craven capitulation to (or worse, active participation in) government pressure for ideological control, surveillance and war. And so *one company* doing something different, positioning itself to be what George Bernard Shaw calls the Unreasonable Man, resisting the trend of the times, would have been better for freedom, balance of power and stability of society as a whole, than *all* large companies bending to dominant trends. This is a part of my version of pluralism. This line of thinking is not just mine, but I also is not too far off from what Aya and others had in mind with the Mandate. Now how does this all get to the role of the EF? EF is not a "center of Ethereum", rather EF is "one node, with a defined purpose, alongside other nodes". We've always said that the EF should be the latter, but many in the Ethereum ecosystem (and even within the EF) wanted us to be the former. Now, we are taking action to ensure that we will be the latter. This is particularly important because EF is a limited organization, with limited resources and limited organizational capacity. The EF has only ~0.16% of all ETH (less than many other individual ETH holders), whereas among other blockchains it's common for "the central foundation" to have 10-50%. Fiscally, the EF was originally designed to fulfill a limited work scope defined in the token sale docs and other pre-launch materials (building the chain software; getting through Frontier, Homestead, Metropolis, Serenity), which was fully completed in 2022; it was not designed to be an eternal steward. And so today, the EF is choosing to use its remaining resources to pursue longevity over breadth (yes, this means we sell less ETH). The EF focuses *specifically* on those activities critical to the success of ethereum as a censorship/capture-resistant, open, private and secure system, that would not happen otherwise. This means making hard choices, and in some cases even activities that we highly approve of and people that we highly respect becoming outside of the EF. People of great technical talent, public respect and even alignment with the mission and CROPS being outside of the EF is in fact necessary if we want important tasks to be able to attract outside capital. This also means the EF taking opinionated stands culturally. This is all intended in cooperation with all other parts of ethereum. We recognize that many other parts of the ethereum world highly respect CROPS and related values. But highly respecting is not the same as choosing to specialize and totally dedicate to a domain (Compare in a different domain: I think reducing animal cruelty is important, and I like vegan food, but am not full unconditional vegan myself) EF is still in a transition period, and we expect its new long-term form to stabilize over the next few months. What are the guiding principles of this new form? Again, I am only one person, but I can give my answer from a technical perspective (there are also critical non-technical aspects). At the core, *Ethereum must be impressive*. We are living in an age of highly intelligent AI and all kinds of other technological acceleration. "Status quo EVM, with a hard fork or two a year to optimize for short-term needs of users" is not interesting. To some, "impressive" means: 250ms latency and 1M TPS. I think Ethereum trying to go that route is a mistake. Being as fast and as scalable as possible, and only a small epsilon more decentralized than the others, is a route to mediocrity, and if we try it we will lose. I think Ethereum should scale. But I think Ethereum should strive the hardest to be deeply impressive in a different dimension: the CROPS dimension. This means things like: * Provably bug-free Ethereum. This is a goal that all cybersecurity researchers would have thought is absurd and impossible, up until roughly 6 months ago. Now, it's on the cusp of being possible, thanks to AI-assisted formal verification. So we should be frontrunners in doing this. * Available chain consensus. Ethereum is, and with lean consensus will cotninue to be, the ONLY chain that has both (i) traditional-BFT style properties that it's safe under asynchrony up to a high level of fault tolerance, and (ii) the bitcoin PoW-style property that under synchrony it's safe up to 49% attackers. As far as I can tell, literally no other chain has this or is planning for it; bitcoin goes for (ii) only and most other chains go for (i) only. Some will remember I fought hard for this, Unreasonably insisting that it is not OK for ethereum to rely on social consensus and hard forks to rescue ethereum from 34% of nodes going offline. It's OK for chains like hyperledger, bnb, solana, tempo, etc. It's not OK for bitcoin or ethereum or eg. zcash. * Intermediary minimization. The fact that smart contract wallets, protocols like railgun, etc have to send transactions through intermediaries to get included onchain is honestly embarrassing, and it's a constant point of fragility. Hence the work on FOCIL and EIP-8141 (and 7701 and years of work before) to make transaction sending intermediary-minimized with public mempool and strong inclusion properties, in a truly general-purpose way, that covers not just eg. secp256r1, but also privacy protocols and much more. Kohaku is pushing intermediary minimization at the user layer, pulling Ethereum away from the dystopian status quo world where our wallets don't even verify the chain, send our private data out to a dozen third-party servers, and toward a brighter CROPS future. Some of these goals are Unreasonable - maybe Ethereum would be "fine" getting only 50% of the way - what if we depend on intermediaries, but make it easy to switch? But going 50% of the way would not make Ethereum Deeply Impressive in the CROPS way. So we push for 100%. Fortunately all these goals are compatible with high TPS, this is a major focus of research (esp. on scaling the state). Well-designed L2s can also help, especially L2s optimized for specific applications (eg. high-volume trading, privacy...). These goals are even compatible with significantly lower slot times, thanks to Raul's work on erasure-coded P2P, and many other optimizations. The most high-value "product" of the ethereum blockchain, financially speaking, is ETH the asset. Ethereum secures $250 billion of ETH. The types of properties of Ethereum that I mentioned above are very good for ETH the asset. Nearly 90% of my net worth is in ETH, and most of the remainder is ~$40m of onchain fiat of which every dollar has already been allocated for some open-source biotech or software or hardware initiative. That said, there are aspects of supporting ETH the asset - *necessary* aspects even - that are outside the scope of the EF. This is where we need other heroes (some of whom hold more ETH than the EF does) to step in and help. EF has been recently thinking more about how it will relate to other such organizations, and give them needed initial support. EF will be a smaller ship than in previous years, a more opinionated one - in some cases more opinionated in ways that might be difficult to comprehend - but a longer-lasting one, and one suited to making sure that ethereum brings something meaningful to the world. We are grateful to all those inside and outside the EF who are helping to make this happen.

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Lewis 追远 | 学AI
Lewis 追远 | 学AI@discipleship88·
@east_web3 币圈的估值逻辑跟美股还是不一样的。 币圈一个有真实收入,有用户的项目,真的很难得,而且还靠谱100%回购,太稀缺了。整个币圈的人都会买,给推上去了。市值就高的吓人,所以在币圈创业还是简单的。 但是在美股个个都是有利润的,有用户,就太多了,得靠AI这种风口来吹大市值了。
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River—海妖 🪼
River—海妖 🪼@east_web3·
$HYPE 现在的价格,买的不是公司,买的是故事。 它一年赚8亿美元,听起来很厉害。 但纳斯达克、CME这种掌控全球交易命脉的巨头,市值也就500到1000亿。而HYPE一个只有100万用户的链上衍生品平台,凭什么给出同级别的估值? 凭叙事。凭"干翻中心化交易所"的情绪。 这不是不可能成真,但得清楚自己买的是什么。 还有两把悬着的刀: 一是代币还没解锁完。未来一两年,天量筹码陆续出来,如果没有足够的新钱接盘,就是慢慢阴跌的钝刀子割肉。 二是监管。它现在吃的是监管真空期的红利——合规通道被堵死,资金无处可去,才涌进来。这个窗口不会永远开着。一旦SEC盯上链上衍生品,"丝滑体验"可以在一夜之间消失。 所以结论很简单: 情绪溢价是真实存在的,牛市里它能把价格推到你根本想不到的高度。 但情绪溢价是用来在顶部出货的,不是用来梭哈定投的。 看懂叙事,不等于要成为叙事的燃料。
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River—海妖 🪼
River—海妖 🪼@east_web3·
黄仁勋:什么是 AI 时代真正的“聪明”
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River—海妖 🪼
River—海妖 🪼@east_web3·
如果你觉得坚持没有动力: 1994年,一本叫《哈利·波特》的书稿,被12家出版社退回。 每一封退稿信,都写得礼貌而冷漠。 第13家出版社的编辑,把书稿带回家。 他8岁的女儿读完第一章,跑出来说:“爸爸,我还要看下一章。” 就这样,这本书全球印了5亿册。 罗琳没有改手稿。她只是没有停下来。 在Web3和投资的冰河期里,12次被忽视,从来不是例外,而是标准配置。 平庸的共识永远无法在早期识别真正的独角兽。 无论是发掘新兴的链上机会,还是在无人问津的震荡行情中死守 BTC 真正把你带过奇点的,从来不是去讨好那12个傲慢的裁判, 而是找到那个能读懂你第一章的“同频疯子” 大多数人死在第12次拒绝里。 少数人,活到了第13次。
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River—海妖 🪼
River—海妖 🪼@east_web3·
沃什刚上任,没有蜜月,只有精准的下马威。 第一刀,来自内部 就在宣誓前一小时,美联储理事沃勒抛出鹰派信号:加息与降息概率相当, 不排除加息可能——原因是伊朗战争引发的能源冲击正在持续,推高通胀。 数据支撑了他的强硬:4月美国CPI达到3.8%,核心PCE攀升至3.3%,为两年多来最高水平。 这不是常规的预期管理,这是在给新任主席划底线——在你还没开口之前,市场的定价已经替你说了话。 第二刀,来自白宫。 特朗普把沃什送上位,公开表态希望他能推动降息。但在恶性通胀的现实面前,这个算盘被直接砸碎。 沃什现在面对一个完美的两难困局: 不加息,他立刻被定性为白宫的提线木偶,美联储的独立性信誉归零; 强硬加息,他亲手刺破高估值泡沫,得罪把他送上台的政治中枢。 无论怎么走,都像毒药二选一。 但真正的玩家,不会等着被绞杀。 沃什的剧本大概率只有一种写法:用最鹰派的姿态,做最冷血的动作。 在通胀数据与市场逼空的双重夹击下,6月议息会议打出一发防御性加息25bps的概率正在上升。 逻辑很简单:先用一次加息的鲜血,向华尔街证明美联储的绝对独立性,才能在下半场的衰退周期里换取真正的操作空间。 这招以退为进,不是认输。 对习惯在温室里寻找确定性的多头,这是一场灾难的开场白。 对嗅觉敏锐的交易员,旧的叙事已经被撕裂——当美元流动性的底座再次被架在火上烤,真正的筹码洗盘才刚刚开始。 不要再幻想美联储的仁慈 市场永远只惩罚那些在通胀周期里,还在幻想软着陆的人。😂 #美股 #BTC
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River—海妖 🪼
River—海妖 🪼@east_web3·
@silverfang88 同阶段多偶,还是不同阶段多偶,差别有很大。感觉在 某种层面上还有很长的路要走
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子时
子时@silverfang88·
之前一个妹子给我看了 她各种推特小红书私信 舔狗之多以及舔语之密 看完我才意识到这世界 到底是有多么的性压抑 也明白了为什么她单身 男女都找不到合适对象 因为女的选择真太多了 男追女的形势也很压抑 有钱男的大部分是多偶 导致了性压抑大战里面 多了这不该存在的对手
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