ec
14.9K posts

ec
@eclcrypto
cto @arcadiagtm prev corporate finance
Katılım Ocak 2022
792 Takip Edilen19.2K Takipçiler

🚨 BREAKING:
🇺🇸 FED ALMOST CANCELED INTEREST RATE CUTS NEXT MONTH
ODDS HAVE JUST DROPPED BELOW 0.1% AND INFLATION KEEPS RISING
IT LOOKS LIKE KEVIN WARSH IS TRAPPED...

Kalshi Finance@Kalshi_Finance
JUST IN: Kevin Warsh officially sworn in as new Fed Chair
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🚨 THIS IS NOT GOOD
Oil just collapsed.
Prices dropped over 6% in the last 30 minutes.
Reports say Iran sent a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
But here’s the problem: nothing is confirmed. No deal has been signed.
The market is pricing peace before peace exists.
Billions of dollars wiped out.
We are approaching an extreme statistical event.
Something that almost never happens without serious consequences.
More value erased in minutes than the annual GDP of most European countries.
We have officially entered the FORCED LIQUIDATION PHASE.
This is what a liquidity vacuum looks like.
Funds are being margin-called.
They’re selling oil just to survive.
And if this peace headline fails, the reversal will be violent.
Do not hand them your wealth.
Remember, I’ve been in finance for more than 15 years.
When I EXIT the markets completely, I’ll say it here publicly, like I always do.
Many people will wish they followed me sooner.

Kalshi Finance@Kalshi_Finance
BREAKING: Oil falls as Iran sends a new proposal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz 50% chance traffic returns to normal next month
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🚨 INSIGHT: US spot ETFs have seen near-daily outflows since May 7, adding sustained supply pressure, per @glassnode.

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@BullTheoryio beyond market prices, what re the implications in the near future?
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🚨 CHINA MIGHT HAVE JUST DESTROYED THE CHIP SCARCITY NARRATIVE THAT BUILT NVIDIA.
Wall Street has priced Nvidia, TSMC, and the entire AI hardware supply chain on one single assumption, that advanced chips will remain scarce, expensive, and controlled by the West.
Huawei just directly attacked that assumption.
China built a completely new way to design chips that delivers the same computing performance as the most advanced Western chips by 2031 without buying a single piece of restricted Western equipment.
The US sanctions were designed to freeze China out of the advanced chip market permanently.
Instead they pushed Huawei to engineer a different path to the same destination.
This is the exact same thing DeepSeek did to AI software last year. DeepSeek proved you could match OpenAI's performance at a fraction of the cost. Nvidia lost $600 billion in market cap in a single day.
Huawei is now doing the same thing to hardware.
If China can produce advanced computing power cheaply and at massive scale, the scarcity premium that justifies Nvidia's $5 trillion valuation and TSMC's margin story disappears entirely.
Every AI infrastructure company is priced on the assumption that the hardware bottleneck lasts for years.
Huawei's announcement directly challenges how long that bottleneck actually holds.
Trillions of dollars in tech valuations have not priced this in yet.


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Three of the biggest companies in the world are going public at the same time.
The market has never seen anything like this.
And this is how major bubbles peak.
SpaceX is targeting a June 2026 IPO raising up to $75 billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation, the largest IPO in human history, bigger than Saudi Aramco's $29 billion raise in 2019.
OpenAI is filing with the SEC targeting September 2026, raising at least $60 billion at a $1 trillion valuation.
The company is losing $14 billion this year alone and won't be profitable until 2029.
Anthropic just raised $30 billion in February 2026 at a $380 billion valuation.
Its valuation has increased 15x in just 14 months. It is now preparing what could be a $900 billion private round before going public.
Combined, these three IPOs could pull $200 billion from global capital markets. That is real. That is unprecedented.
And here's the real risk.
OpenAI is projected to lose $44 billion cumulatively before reaching profitability.
Anthropic's valuation has risen 15x in 14 months on the same underlying business.
Both companies are being priced for perfection at a moment when the first companies to actually deploy their products at scale are blowing their AI budgets and cancelling licenses.
The real liquidation pressure from these IPOs doesn't even arrive at listing day.
It arrives 180 days later when lock-up periods expire and early investors and employees can finally sell. That is when the real rotation happens.
The S&P 500 concentration risk is genuine. The Magnificent 7 now represent 36% of the entire index, higher than the dot-com peak in 2000.
If any of these companies disappoint, the index follows.
That is not a conspiracy. That is basic math.
Three historically unprecedented IPOs. $44 billion in projected OpenAI losses.
An AI capex cycle that must deliver ROI. Lock-up expirations six months after listing.
That combination is what you must pay attention to, as it often break cycles.
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🩸CRASH
$ESPORTS crashed -93% in a single day, wiping out over $110 MILLION in market cap and liquidating $4.72 million in longs.
There is a speculation that the majority of $ESPORTS supply was controlled by the team.
Here's how it happened:
- 60M tokens were quietly unlocked from a team-controlled multisig wallet.
- Connected wallets then dumped 178-197M tokens at once, which is 43% of the entire circulating supply.
- They cashed out roughly 19,049 BNB ($12.7M -$13.6M) into the liquidity pools.
- The selling wiped out all buy liquidity and sent the price toward zero.
Retail was left holding a token worth almost nothing.

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