Forward Guidance

Follow @economics for Bloomberg exclusives and inside-track analysis on central banks and the global economy

THREAD 1/ Worried about the fallout from the trade war? A slew of economic data this week will offer insight into the state of the global economy, @simonjkennedy says bloom.bg/2VxGaBV

THREAD 1/With Trump mulling higher auto tariffs, Bloomberg Economics’ @MaevaDebarge takes a look at what’s at stake for the European economy bloom.bg/2TbL5qg

Thread 1/7: British Steel could face a financial hit of £100m or more on 15 March if May can’t get her Brexit deal over the line bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Two Finns, @LiikanenErkki and @ollirehn, are seen to be vying to succeed Mario Draghi as #ECB president. Here's my take on how that could pan out: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… #TicTocNews

Why now is the time for Germany to loosen the fiscal purse strings bloom.bg/2DGi2RR

Germany's economy flatlined in the final quarter of 2018, but the future looks brighter, @JMurray804 says bloom.bg/2DGjymQ

A reminder that the German economy is volatile and that growth in other members used to provide robust buffers against German drag. Still with lower trend growth, the risk of a mere euro-area slowdown turning into a contraction has increased.

My Stephanomic weekend reads: the distinctive economic ills of Japan, Germany the UK and the US - and why we all need to think long and hard about the dignity of work.

THREAD: 1/ In this week’s Bloomberg Businessweek we look at seven possible fixes for American capitalism—from the Left, the Right, and elsewhere. bloom.bg/2Di2uDH

THREAD: 1/ In the race to succeed Mario Draghi as European Central Bank president, Germany’s one-time favorite could yet stage a comeback (via @CraigStirling) bloom.bg/2Dd1eBJ

THREAD: 1/ The economic situation in Venezuela is a mess. Bloomberg’s series on “Life in Caracas” looks at how we got here bloom.bg/2DRDSmL

THREAD: 1/ This week marks Jerome Powell's 1st year as Fed chairman – and he's set host a town hall meeting to educators just a day after he celebrates the anniversary bloom.bg/2DQIObu

THREAD 1/ Davos is about to become a refuge for politicians and executives seeking respite from a 2019 that’s mere weeks old and already proving turbulent bloom.bg/2DnQP7j

THREAD: 1/Emmanuel Macron’s attempt to revive the French economy from a decades-long slumber is fraying at the edges after less than 2 years of trying bloom.bg/2EoR9oc

-Trump renews auto tariff threat as his trade czar aims at China -Less than half of U.S. factories expect tariff price impact -Carney gets apocalyptic in warnings of no-deal Brexit risks Here's a rundown of your top economic news today bloom.bg/2Rod4P6

-Carney goes further than the UK government in gloomy Brexit analysis -Powell opens the door to a possible pullback in Fed rate-hike outlook -Global economy may be slowing more than expected, Lagarde says Here's a rundown of your top economic news today bloom.bg/2RmooeK

-EU governments are discussing sanctions on Russia -Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will meet over dinner Saturday in Buenos Aires -Australia’s economy risks turning Japanese Here's a rundown of your top economic news today bloom.bg/2RiLrak

-Trump, Xi signal readiness for trade talks ahead of the G-20 meeting -U.S. shoppers storm the stores in Black Friday frenzy -China defends developing economy status at the WTO amid reform push Here's a rundown of your top economic news today bloom.bg/2R35TeZ

Euro-area PMI reading is a troubling sign ahead of the ECB meeting, says @MaevaDebarge bloom.bg/2R8xQ5c

ECB can't do anything for Italy, Papadia says bloom.bg/2QBJZzo