Chris

@econchart Bolivia getting a deal done at those levels felt like the clearest sign yet that EM credit markets have turned overly exuberant. Sovereign spreads across EM look increasingly disconnected from the macro and political risks ahead.

Bolivia’s new 2031 bonds did not even get a honeymoon. Issued at a 9.75% yield, they are already trading above 10.1%. That is the market’s way of saying the optimism around fresh external financing is conditional, fragile, and reversible. The problem was never just access. It was credibility. Bolivia managed to reopen the door, but investors are already asking whether the adjustment program behind that access is politically durable enough to matter. In a country still trapped between FX scarcity, fiscal stress, fuel subsidies, and weak governability, a new bond can buy time. It cannot buy confidence.

@kiguel Show me your reserve accumulation and I’ll show you the money.

Muy buena suba de los activos argentinos hoy. Bonos y acciones y el riesgo país bajó a 519 puntos

@Cat_lucy1 This is the type of bottoms up research I wish I could do.

@Cat_lucy1 What’s the mood like? How’s attendance?

Well I knew they called him ‘The Tiger,’ but I didn’t expect dancing tigers. This a political rally for Albelardo de la Espriella - one of Colombia’s presidential candidates…

@Cat_lucy1 after this you should attend a rallly for the other candidates and report back. Please! 🙏

@NGurushina Agree. COP offers the least favorable risk/reward ahead of the election.

A market-unfriendly election outcome in Colombia does not seem to be reflected in either the central bank survey or COP/$ NDFs

How can Latin America and the Caribbean boost their economic competitiveness in a rapidly changing global context? How can partnerships promote sustainable financing for development? Find out at the International Economic #LACforum2026 ➡️ brnw.ch/21x2Bqy

The average tax-to-GDP ratio in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) rose to 21.7% in 2024. Across LAC countries, levels ranged from 9.2% in Guyana to 33.7% in Brazil. Find out more in the latest #RevStatsLAC report: brnw.ch/21x2Bh7

Cc. @CACIFGuatemala when they say that the tax rate is close to the LatAm average.

@SleepyHawk8521 @NGurushina Actually the JPM chart shows that YTD 26 fiscal is not deteriorating vs. 2025. So neutral for the fiscal impulse so far. COLTES belly is at 15%. Markets are now too pessimistic on the election.

@NGurushina COLTES VS Bonos Soberanos, staggering

Colombia - Fiscal charts from JPM’s Juan Goldin and Diego Pereira tell a troubling story - a widening primary gap and an evaporating Treasury cash buffer. Elections matter.

🎙️ First Calvo Lecture We are pleased to launch the Calvo Lecture Series with @IvanWerning (MIT), introduced by @SFGaliani: “On Inflation: A Look From Above, Backwards and Forwards” 📅 May 22 ⏰ 12:00 PM (EDT) 💻 Live on Zoom (no registration) 🔗umd.zoom.us/j/7244863058?o…

@TheStalwart Child’s play. Go check out Colombia’s government yields (local currency).

Japanese bond yields just keep rising

@SleepyHawk8521 We hit 15% on the 30s. Buy Coltes for your kids, wife, and dog.

@SleepyHawk8521 At near 15% it’s a buy.

COLTES cratered especially at the belly, with massive steepening, ahead of jumbo gov't auction of 3tn pesos ($790 mn)

@NGurushina @BancoRepublica was hoping for a slowdown in activity to offset inflation, but this data print shows that the output gap is more positive than they projected. Hence, this is a double edge sword for monetary policy and could also be good for the left wing campaign.

Colombia’s upside Q1 GDP surprise – good news or a double-edged sword? The solid reading - together with low (vs. history) unemployment, strong COP, and “manageable” inflation - could bolster the case for the “continuity” presidential candidate

@cryptobasenji Yes. At 15% downside is capped even if Cepeda wins. Upside/downside looks compelling. Thought only pension funds would hold for 32 years 😂.

🇨🇴🗳️There is a significant asymmetry in Colombian sovereign debt right now that smart money is quietly exploiting.🐾 15% yield on 32-year government bonds. That's not a normal rate. That's a political risk premium. The market is pricing a meaningful probability that the next government continues Petro's fiscal expansion. More spending. More debt. More populism. If Paloma or Abelardo win, that political risk premium collapses. Bond prices surge. Yields normalize. And whoever bought at 15% locked in a extraordinary instrument for 32 years. The interesting part: this is the exact same mispricing I've been documenting on Polymarket. Two completely different markets and same underlying error. Both overpricing the probability of petrismo continuity.

@Cat_lucy1 Would be curious to know what you hear about Abelardo’s tacky campaign with the dancing AI tiers. Yep, truly an odd election.

@econ_CM I literally have no idea who is going to win this! Such varying and diverse opinions!

I was in a taxi in Bogota yesterday. The driver seemed quiet, but I mentioned the upcoming presidential elections in Colombia to test the waters to see if he'd share his opinions. We then talked non-stop for 30 minutes. He was unsure who to vote for. In 2022 he voted for Petro as he liked his speeches and wanted a change, but quickly felt let down. He worries Ivan Cepeda is more extreme than Petro, but likes some aspects about him. Paloma Valencia is just more establishment and a continuation of Uribe - and he thought Albelardo de la Espriella was all about performance politics, a little extreme, and a Bukele wannabe. He told me the pros and cons of each, and by the end of the journey had made his mind up he'd likely vote for Espriella. He'd tried the left, he was bored of Uribismo - so Espriella was a change. He told me around 90 percent of taxi drivers he spoke to wanted to vote for him. Security and the economy, unsurprisingly, were the two dominant themes. I love talking to taxi drivers. For journalists, they're useful sources as they speak to so many people and tell you what the conversations are going on, and what people are saying.

@NicWirtz Welcome back my good friend

Err, that seems lenient for suspected drug smuggling. Not that I wish the #Guatemala prison system on anyone.

@Tommix____ Who said government deficits were bad? If you want a practical understanding with enough substance read macroeconomics for professionals by Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler

Just wanted to know why government deficits are bad…how is this economics?! lol