Anton Gerashchenko@Gerashchenko_en
Today, Ukraine has become a few steps closer to complete Victory over Russia and complete return of its territories, including Crimea.
A vile, but useful in this case monster - Prigozhin, raised an armed rebellion against Shoigu and Gerasimov, captured the headquarters of the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation, and now his advanced groups are heading towards Voronezh, and then towards Moscow.
In fact, this is a rebellion, not against war criminals Shoigu and Gerasimov, but against Putin himself, whose place Prigozhin has long wanted to take and create his own regime in Russia.
What are the true motives of Prigozhin that prompted him to launch an armed rebellion? I think that he, as a person who has known Putin personally for more than 30 years, treats him with contempt and sees that Putin, having unleashed a bloody massacre against Ukraine, for the sake of his illusory greatness, no longer controls the situation.
In addition, Prigozhin, who has already participated in military coups in Africa for 10 years, decided that if it was possible to seize power in Sudan or the Central African Republic, then it is possible to do it in Russia as well, which Putin has lowered during his 23 years of rule to the level of puppet tropical dictatorships .
An interesting question - what exactly was the reason for the mutiny? Yesterday at 7:30 p.m., Prigozhin published a video showing footage of a rocket attack on the rear camp of the "Wagner" military unit, as a result of which his fighters were allegedly killed.
I am convinced that this provocation was organized by Prigozhin himself, because there was no sense for Shoigu and Gerasimov to attack one of the dozens of military camps of the "Wagner" military group.
If they really wanted to solve their problem with the bloody clown, they would have to eliminate him himself, not attack some tent in the forest and give Prigozhin an excuse to start a riot.
Prigozhin had been preparing for this mutiny for a long time. It is for this reason that he has been raising his profile for the past six months by accusing Shoigu and Gerasimov of sabotage, and gaining the trust of the Russian military, who are not satisfied with the way the criminal war against Ukraine is being waged. It was for this reason that he opened Wagner centers in all subjects of the Russian Federation and recently toured half of Russia.
Prigozhin has crossed his Rubicon, and will not turn from his path until he is physically destroyed or he achieves his goals.
In my opinion, what are the further possible options for the development of the situation?
The first: Putin's power today and tomorrow will crumble like a house of cards. Prigozhin's troops will enter Moscow, seize the Kremlin, the Ministry of Defense and all power, and Prigozhin will appoint himself the military dictator of Russia, on the basis that Putin cannot perform his duties due to a sharp deterioration in his health.
The second: Putin will give an order to physically destroy Prigozhin, which has already been effectively declared an outlaw, with a blow from "Kinzhal" or "Iskander", as well as to destroy from the air the PMC convoys that are now heading from Russian South towards Moscow. I say from the air, since it is unlikely that any ground unit of the Russian army would dare to engage in open combat with the experienced and strictly disciplined mercenaries of the Wagner Army.
The third option: Putin will abandon the plan to physically destroy Prigozhin and try to come to an agreement with him, fulfilling his demands to remove Shoigu, Gerasimov and other ineffective war criminals, replacing them with Prigozhin's proteges, in order to increase military pressure on Ukraine and our allies.
This will still mean the actual transfer of power to the hands of Prigozhin and the departure of Putin from power, and in the future the possibility of being shot together with Kabayeva for treason, as the Ceausescu couple was shot in 1989, on the second day after the beginning of the uprising.
You can choose which of the three options is the most beneficial for Ukraine, or write your vision in the comments.
In my opinion, all three options that I mentioned above only strengthen Ukraine's position and bring our Victory closer.
If Prigozhin seizes power in the Kremlin, it will with a 99% probability lead to the collapse of Russia, which I have predicted since 24 February, 2022.
Kadyrov and the leaders of other national subjects of the federation in the Caucasus, Povolzhie (Volga region), and Siberia, know that Prigozhin considers all of them second-class people and will easily give an order to shoot and destroy any of them. Therefore, they will negotiate with the local commanders of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, the Russian Guards, the FSB, and declare their independence from Prigozhin.
An armed war of clans will begin for power, for resources, there will be such chaos and disorder, compared to which the year 1917 will seem like a fairy tale.
If, after all, Putin gives the order and Prigozhin is eliminated, then the Russian army, which was still somehow holding on due to the belief in some improvements, will completely lose the remnants of faith in the possibility of winning in the confrontation with us and our NATO allies.
Next will be our successful offensive, the total overthrow of the remnants of the Russian front, and the Russians and together with their henchmen will run and stop only after crossing our borders.
Onwards to Victory!
