elevenify

I am the best FPL manager over the past few years. Decision-making, not data models, is what determines your outcomes. I wrote some reflections on what fantasy sports teaches us about that. decidership.com/p/decision-ski…

On average most football coverage talks about “taking risk” in a shallow way. Fans deserve the deeper conversation that is on offer. The risks that players take are only interesting (or even understandable) in how it relates to game state + the teams current objective.

@ogbueshindu He was top of page 2 on this set of numbers. Full list is on the website page live-updating all the time.

@elevenify Hi. Thanks for sharing. Out of curiosity, any reason — or reasons — why Dembele doesn’t make the “simulated goals and assists” list?

#FIFAWorldCup Semi Finals Predictions 📊 Here is a first look from me at the goals, assists, clean sheets, and win % for the semi finals. Broadly aligned with consensus, main difference is I have England a bit more likely to win than others.

#FIFAWorldCup Quarter Final Predictions 📊 10,000s of you have visited the site this World Cup to enjoy these entirely ad-free predictions. If you want to show your appreciation, then consider donating to a charity or doing a good deed for someone else. 💜

Coincidentally very relevant for juniors in sports analytics. I see the best and brightest on here are largely go ignored because: 1 - no one cares (poor/no storytelling) 2 - no one understands (poor data communication) 3 - no one sees the value (not intent-based)

#FIFAWorldCup Round of 16 Predictions 📊 Goals, Assists, Clean Sheets, Win%.

#FIFAWorldCup Round of 16 Predictions 📊 Another quick turnaround between rounds so I am posting data as it currently stands. Match Predictions: Goals, Clean Sheet, Win% Player Predictions: Goals + Assists Website will update with full RO16 data tomorrow morning. 💜

Another one with big implications for fantasy/sports analytics. Much of the decision-making process is consuming data (especially explicit prediction data). We should all get better at vetting our sources and being consistent in how we consume and apply the data given to us.

#FIFAWorldCup Knockout Stage Match Predictions 📅 First look at the knockout fixtures now they have all been confirmed. Player predictions (Goals+Assists) also live on the site and will continue to update until first match tonight.

#FIFAWorldCup Knockout Round Player Predictions 📊 And here is a similar look at the player predictions from the confirmed matches so far. Final post here today. Website will continue to live-update. Enjoy the matches and full updates will come tomorrow! 💜

USA - Bosnia had an error, updated version below.

#FIFAWorldCup Knockout Round Match Predictions 📊 Here is an early look at the predictions for the confirmed knockout matches so far. I will aim to have the full predictions (including player goals+assists) live on the site in approx 24 hours.

@PeterPu93034390 Hiya - good spot! Thanks. Just checked and there was a fixture mapping error on that one. Updated version of that fixture in this image. It will still be different from market odds (because I am not the market!)

@elevenify How is USA cs odds so far from the market odds?

@NiallWorthing67 Hi Sorry I won’t be doing that, I’m trying to limit the amount of time I spend on this tournament I think the win% gets you like 95% of what you need from a decision-making POV I would recommend @MC_of_A website, he has the best sicko-mode comprehensive WC prediction content

@elevenify Would you consider including chance of progression rather than win % here?

@FPL__Fran You’re welcome

@elevenify Thank you sir

Trossard I am going to need you to actually deliver me something for once in my fantasy football career

Sharing your goals with others is one of the best ways to make your life easier and improve the likelihood you get what you want. Full article from the blog:

#FIFAWorldCup MD3 Player Predictions 📊 Here is an early look at where the goals and assists are likely to come from next round. Very volatile. Round 3 often a minutes massacre so adjust for your own beliefs etc. Rest of the list free on the website.

This article is also a strong case for why engaging with others improves fantasy results. The more other people know what you're trying to do (e.g. chip plans / transfer targets) the more chance you have of them giving you relevant information (e.g. fixture / injury news).