full armored

340 posts

full armored

full armored

@elfulldearmor

polymarket enjoyer

Toronto, Ontario Katılım Ekim 2020
139 Takip Edilen52 Takipçiler
full armored
full armored@elfulldearmor·
Everyone is sleeping on this absolute banger: Fed December meeting — crowd just flipped to 55% NO CUT (up from 27% last week). Inflation data hotter than expected. I’m loading No Cut shares hard
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full armored
full armored@elfulldearmor·
🚨 Polymarket alpha alert 🚨 My early play: “Trump agrees F-35 sale to Saudi by Nov 30” → 81¢ Yes Reason: Saudi delegation in DC this week + Trump already told advisors he wants the deal done before Christmas. Feels heavily undervalued
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rwlk
rwlk@sherlock_hodles·
Guys if you’re broke, just focus on making $30 a day. $20 x 7 = $140 a week $140 x 30 = $4200 a month $4200 x 52 = $218,400 a year Whatever it takes, making 6 figs ain’t that hard.
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gemchanger
gemchanger@gemchange_ltd·
Found a Money-Printing Machine on the Weather Markets $2.4M is being bet on weather events right now. Here’s a universal manual on how to analyze ANY weather market and profit from it. On Polymarket, there are markets for hurricanes, temperature records, droughts, snowfalls. Smart traders don’t guess the weather - they trade the gap between crowd emotion and real data. Universal System for Analyzing Weather Bets Step 1: Find the Objective Resolution Source Open the market’s conditions. Find where the resolution data comes from. The best markets use: - NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) - NASA GISS (temperature indices) National meteorological services - WMO (World Meteorological Organization) Government data sources = minimal manipulation. Avoid markets that resolve based on "media consensus." Step 2: Real-Time Core Tools - Tropical Tidbits tropicaltidbits.com Not just for hurricanes. GFS and ECMWF models for any weather pattern - cold fronts, heat waves, rainfall. Updated every 6 hours. - Climate Reanalyzer climatereanalyzer.org Universal tool: air and ocean temperature, rainfall anomalies, pressure - all in real time with historical context. - Windy windy.com Interactive maps: wind, temperature, rain, snow, waves. Switch between 10+ models. Perfect for local events. Step 3: Historical Data and Probabilities - NOAA Climate Data Online ncei.noaa.gov/cdo-web/ Web interface for historical climate data by location. Want to know how often Chicago hits >40°C in July? Over 100 years of data here. - NOAA Climate API ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/webser… For developers: temperature, precipitation, snow, wind - all downloadable by station. Build your own probability models. Example: Market: "Snow in Miami in December 2025" = 5%. History: 0 cases in 150 years. Real probability ≈ 0.01%. -> Sell at 5%, hold until expiration. Step 4: Forecast Models - Your Main Weapon - Tropical Tidbits Models tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/model… Professional access: GFS (US model) ECMWF (European, most accurate) CMC (Canadian) When 3+ models agree -> high confidence. When they diverge -> high uncertainty (and volatility). - NOAA Weather Prediction Center wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Official forecasts for precipitation, temperature anomalies, extreme events (1–7 days). Perfect for short-term markets. - Climate Prediction Center cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Long-term forecasts (weeks to months): ENSO, temperature anomalies, droughts. For seasonal markets. Step 5: Specialized Tools - For temperature markets: OISST Database: ncei.noaa.gov/products/optim… - Ocean temperatures drive air temperatures. NASA GISS: data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ Global temperature anomalies. - For rainfall/drought markets: NOAA Drought Monitor: drought.gov Real-time drought maps. - NOAA Precipitation Data: water.weather.gov/precip/ Accumulated rainfall data. - For snow markets: NOAA Snow Data: nohrsc.noaa.gov Snow cover, analysis, and forecasts. - For extreme events: NOAA Storm Events Database: ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/ Historical records of tornadoes, hail, floods, etc. Trading Strategy Emotional Market Cycle: Normal conditions -> market priced fairly Models show a threat -> panic, odds spike Event weakens or doesn’t happen -> odds collapse Repeat Weather markets are inefficient because 90% of participants trade headlines, not data. You’re using the same tools as meteorologists and climatologists. You’re not predicting the weather - you’re finding where the market is wrong. Retail traders buy fear at high prices. You sell them fear - and buy back reality cheap. NFA. DYOR. Trade on Polymarket
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Pepesso
Pepesso@0xPepesso·
#Ethereum is done Massive bearish breakout incoming Get ready bears!
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Ansem
Ansem@blknoiz06·
why is filecoin up 84%
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Crypto Rover
Crypto Rover@cryptorover·
BITCOIN IS PUMPING 🚀
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Coin Bureau
Coin Bureau@coinbureau·
🚨BREAKING: The crypto market added $156 BILLION in the last 7 hours. Altcoins alone accounted for $81 BILLION.
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