Elijah

775 posts

Elijah

Elijah

@eliknows_

Data driven analysis, probability based plays Swing trades & Day trades NFA Staff with Blazen Capital see link in bio

707 Katılım Şubat 2015
484 Takip Edilen271 Takipçiler
Elijah retweetledi
lukeoncapital
lukeoncapital@lukeoncapital·
We were also in $NVDA puts for the pop, btw this is a free discord. Peep the #Wild, take em vs the #Avalanche. Winner of Avalanche vs. Wild plays #Montreal for Finals and winner determined in 7 games.
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lukeoncapital
lukeoncapital@lukeoncapital·
LIVE TRADER INTERVIEW WITH ROBLESH: Tomorrow at 2:30pm ET we will be hosting Roblesh of @TradeWellX for an interview about his trading. Roblesh has done interviews with prop firms like Tradeify, and has found great success in futures trading! We will be covering what he trades, his trade style, risk management, how he's found success, and much more, so be sure not to miss it! It will be held in the Founded on Financials discord, this is a free event, link below⬇️ discord.gg/McF9bwsvyd @FractalExchange @yooser321 @MilkRcg @Russell_2070 #fractals #trading #interview
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Elijah retweetledi
Russell
Russell@Russell_2070·
HOOD tends to normally be between the red/green average bands its dropped down beneath the green band and ideally it has reversion and gets back between the red/green zones. @FractalExchange #HOOD $HOOD
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Elijah
Elijah@eliknows_·
This is why data is king, the #1 MFFU futures trader is using the fractal to crush the market, why aren’t you?
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Elijah retweetledi
lukeoncapital
lukeoncapital@lukeoncapital·
Below is the $QQQ Monday/Tuesday splice graph. Over 1,000 days $QQQ 629.65 hasn't pushed above with a close above 628.60 simultaneously. Knowing where the market closed on Friday at 648.85, if we maintained and got a close below pivot it would require us to close Monday below that 628.60, a $20 move. We are also at an H5 which is getting into outlier territory from a time perspective. We have had 6 occurrences of an H6, and only one H7. You could have taken this data and taken a lotto on Friday using the P635 which closed at 0.24 ($24), a small risk for a potential large return since if we close below 628.60, they will be worth 6.40 ($640). The risk on this is a close above forming an H6. If this occurs, your loss was minimal, and now we know that Tuesday is in high probability to close below Mondays close to form an L1, giving us a solid expectation for close into Tuesday which we can use to capitalize on. Also, if you do the math, taking setups like this that are higher risk but higher reward while being cheap contracts, it allows you to have many chances for it to yield a return. Think of it like this: If you take 3 contracts on each attempt, and using the numbers we already have, so each contract costs $24, so $72 for 3 contracts, and if you hit your target, your minimum return is $640 per contract so $1,920 total profit. That means, that if you divide $72 each time you try it into the amount you gain if it plays out just one time which is $1,920, so $1,920/$72=26.67 tries to get it right. That means to breakeven you need it to hit just once every 26 attempts. I like those odds. This is the power of using high leverage contracts with data backed behind it. This is also exactly the same type of play I used a couple weeks ago for the "100%" statistical win rate on the $QQQ calls. @FractalExchange #fractals #qqq #data
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Elijah retweetledi
lukeoncapital
lukeoncapital@lukeoncapital·
1000%+ on $ROKU, what a way to start off the first week in the new discord. Quality over quantity. Thank you #Roku, now maybe I'll actually go buy one.
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lukeoncapital
lukeoncapital@lukeoncapital·
Below directly demonstrates the power of fractals over regular linear charts such as on TradingView. The black boxes in each image on $QQQ both represent the same period of time from the start of the fractal pattern on September 4, 2025, to current day April 13, 2026. The wave 7 daily fractal graph clearly shows the compression coming to an apex where the trendline meets the pivot. When price got daily closes above vector from March 31-April 2, that was an entry into swings to our open states. Now look at the TradingView chart and tell me if you can see any kind of clear pattern that would indicate such a strong move to the upside with such precision. Hint: There isn't. On the fractal graph this pattern had been building up since early September. Months. The linear chart showed no such pattern. @FractalExchange @yooser321 @Russell_2070 @MilkRcg #fractals #data #patterns #qqq
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Elijah
Elijah@eliknows_·
Here’s why I’m taking this trade based off the probabilities 👇 Earlier this week I bought HOOD 74C because the w1 daily Wednesday splice was showing 5% odds we close below $70 by Wednesday with a 80% chance of our H1 printing around $75 So knowing that I bought 74C for .48 on Monday & .22 at Tuesdays lows The next day they opened up at 4.00 and I hit sell for a gain of 770% on my initial buy & 1500% on my second buy That’s the power of the splice tool from @FractalExchange
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Elijah@eliknows_

$TSLA Contracts getting cheap here Going to try 4/10 367.5C for .32 fill

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lukeoncapital
lukeoncapital@lukeoncapital·
$NVDA is forming an H6 today on the wave1/daily if it closes above 182.08. Over the past 500 days, we have had 2 other occurrences of H6s, with no waves exceeding it. We also have the ceiling for tomorrow’s expiration April 10 at 184.63, with the PML at 174.89 and the floor at 162.42. That being said, I see either pin into the ceiling tomorrow which can adjust slightly, or a reversion potentially down to the PML. Puts are cheap enough we can take a swing at this without putting up a lot at risk. I’m looking at the P180 currently for 0.27 ($27), as a PML reversion would put them at 5.11 ($511). I see it as a plausible risk to risk $27 to target a possible 1,800%. This is not financial advice and this may go to 0 so do not play this with money you can’t afford to lose
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Elijah retweetledi
lukeoncapital
lukeoncapital@lukeoncapital·
$TSLA has an interesting statistic based on both Thursday splicing and Friday Splicing. Only once on Thursday splicing have we exceeded L7 and only once have we exceeded L6 on Friday splicing. This implies a close above 360.59 by tomorrow (Thursdays) close, and a close above 361.83 by Friday close. We can watch the C360 and C362.5 for more leverage. $TSLA has sold off strongly this morning and continued selling could allow for a cheaper entry into this. With a minimum H1 value of 370.02 for Friday splice, the C360 would be worth a minimum of 10.02 ($1,002) and the C362.5 would be worth 7.52 ($752) by Friday close. If contracts get really cheap may be even better to take a C367.5 as the price will likely be below 0.20 ($20) for one contract if we continue selling today, where you can risk less and see a potential gain up to a minimum value of 2.52 ($252). Credit to @eliknows_ for finding this trade setup.
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Elijah retweetledi
lukeoncapital
lukeoncapital@lukeoncapital·
Tonight's reaction to the markets may just be the beginning. We do not care what news comes out or developments are made, we care only about what the data is telling us. In this case it is telling us we have many open states above pivot, and we have a large trendline to the downside that is now going to have broken when we open tomorrow morning. This means $QQQ has the potential to push up into the 613-620 range, followed by an ultimate target of 627-630 over the next 1-3 weeks. We do not know for certain if this will play out, we only have what the data tells us. If it does not work out then we move on to the next trade, and if it does work out then great we make money.
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