Ellaella
150 posts


@TiloJung Impressions are not hypotheses. It’s always better to let your audience think for themselves rather than labeling someone "strange."
You say he’s built a world to avoid his blind spots, but you might be doing the same, using storytelling to avoid your own blind spot: journalism.
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@ellaellaeeh2017 Thanks for posting. We on this thread are just starry eyed amateurs with rose colored glasses. You set me straight. I’m out.
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@Moneymanrupert No need to lead with insults. Yes it is undervalued but 5b or 10b right now? I’ve seen some bombastic numbers and others claiming outrageous claims about shorts (same as we saw with AMC). It’s too early for that.
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@ellaellaeeh2017 FACTS=Trading at cash levels, extremely undervalued compared to peers by multiples... ur talking like this is trading at 10x cash levels... smh
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@Ceazar_Black Are your revenue numbers based on gross list price or realistic net sales after rebates, discontinuations, and real-world attrition?
And why apply a 3–5x peak sales acquisition multiple to a preclinical CRC program as if it’s already a de-risked commercial asset?
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$ALLR let's do the CRC math properly because i don't think people are thinking about this right. 150,000 new US CRC cases per year, but patients don't disappear after year one, they accumulate, so the revenue pool builds every single year as new starters add to the existing patients still on drug. three scenarios: conservative (10,000 new patients/year, 18 month avg duration, roughly 15,000 steady state patients on drug = $2.7B annual revenue), base case (25,000 new/year, 24 months, roughly 50,000 steady state = $9 B annual revenue), bull case (50,000 new/year, 30 months, roughly 125,000 steady state = $22.5B annual revenue). the duration assumptions aren't pulled from thin air either, in the ovarian cohort two heavily pretreated 3L+ patients are still on drug past 30 months, DRP-selected CRC responders could look similar. pharma acquires oncology assets at roughly 3-5x peak sales, so the conservative scenario alone implies an $8-13B asset value, base case is $27-45B. current allarity market cap is about $20 M. the market is pricing exactly zero CRC optionality right now. the ovarian mid-2026 readout is still the primary catalyst and nothing changes that. but the CRC program is a free option sitting on top of it, and the Indiana Biosciences AACR abstract is the first hard data showing that option has real underlying value. long and biased, do your own work. 1/
Ceazar@Ceazar_Black
$ALLR for valuation context. lynparza did about $2.7B in revenue in 2024. mostly ovarian and breast. a CRC approval for stenoparib, even narrow and DRP-selected, in a market 7x the size of ovarian, would be a commercial opportunity that dwarfs anything the current market cap is reflecting. 15/
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@Ceazar_Black Isn’t citing two long-duration ovarian patients a weak basis for assuming CRC responders will have similar average duration, given they’re different tumors and different treatment settings?
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@Ceazar_Black Why are you using 18–30 months average time on drug in CRC when approved refractory mCRC drugs typically show treatment durations measured in months, not years?
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@Ceazar_Black How are you getting from ~159,000 total new U.S. CRC cases to 25,000–50,000 new treated later-line patients per year for ALLR, when stenoparib’s CRC data are still preclinical and not even human efficacy data yet?
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@Ceazar_Black Hello 😊 @Ceazar_Black what was your last “diamond in the rough”?
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$ALLR The bar is just so low..it's just timing.. and now we're in the final countdown.
Go look at their data.. they literally added like 4 months OS versus standard chemo.. and their drug is a intravenous combo w chemo with a whole host of side effects
We on the other hand have easy oral delivery and over 30 months on a monotherapy with no chemo when on BID dosing.. also DRP biomarker shows stenoparib works w over 70% of patients
Bio/Tech@BioTechCash
$ALLR $20M mkt cap is retarded.. Min $500M(25/shr) should be price now in ph2 w fast track..once we get good data we should be $5B..why any diff than $CORT(and don't forget their drug is 💩💩w chemo)???
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Ben Shapiro—after telling his audience for months that bombing Iran wouldn't lead to a wider war, and then claiming the war was just going to be a quick bombing campaign—is now telling Americans to prepare for a long war.
"There is no way to extricate ourselves from this situation right now."
Americans only got "tired" of Vietnam after 50,000 troops died, he says.
"Our" military members are "heroes" because they're willing to "sacrifice" their lives "for a greater good"—a future world where "energy will become cheap again because the Strait of Hormuz will be free again."
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JUST IN 🇮🇷🇺🇸: Netanyahu started this war on Iran, and is now pushing for it to become a world war.
He wants European and Arab countries to enter, have them all become destabilized, and have their economies destroyed, so Israel can become a superpower. This was always his plan.
Ryan Rozbiani@RyanRozbiani
JUST IN 🇮🇱🇮🇷: Israeli Media is Turning on Netanyahu Im telling you guys, Israeli society will REVOLT soon. They cant live like this much longer.
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@nahal0211 @MEMRIReports I trust them tho. Cant say the same for the children r$ppixt turned k*iiers
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@MEMRIReports It doesnt feel infinite in israel. Had a good night sleep. Attacks are dropping rapidly. They had one trick and its failing. Please dont ask fir ceasefire. You are doing great. Believe in yourself and take example from Khamenei 😂
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@SaraDrake381689 @MEMRIReports everything he said is true though. they have just taken the THAAD systems from south korea in a desperate act leaving south korea open to attacks from north korea. point out a single thing he said that is false
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Michael Burry appears to be shutting down Scion Asset Management.

Cassandra Unchained@michaeljburry
Me then, me now. Oh well. It worked out. It will work out
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