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@elvetica46

Mostly about JP Ent/Idol (◢⁴⁶ )/マンガ/アニメ/BL Multi-fandom. ID/EN ok, JPまだ勉強中。薬剤師さんです。

バリ島 から 👩🏻‍🏫 LUG, CH Katılım Mayıs 2010
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by (/bɪ/) 🌺💟@elvetica46·
Welcome my ovulation slope
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Panda
Panda@wil3681·
Loving anime doesn’t mean I ignore Japan’s past.
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🫪💮
🫪💮@nobauchida·
New japanglish word for your consideration: low気がする (lowkey ga suru)
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alia
alia@3liaFM·
Me in the mirror when I realize my adult features are forming and I won't be a teenage girl forever
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L✩🫦
L✩🫦@juzt_lizi·
half of twitter is horny and the other half is suicidal
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Pope Leo XIV
Pope Leo XIV@Pontifex·
With particular affection, in the light of the risen Lord, we remember today Pope Francis, who, on Easter Monday of last year, returned to the Lord.
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Big Tee
Big Tee@societyhatestee·
the rich aunt is not rich. she just doesn’t have any kids.
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Menteri Pekerja RI
Menteri Pekerja RI@MenteriPekerja·
PERBUDAKAN MODERN YG DILEGALKAN NEGARA 2026 : -FREELANCE FULLTIME -GURU HONORER -KEMITRAAAN -MAGANG -VOLUNTEER -HARIAN LEPAS -PROBATION 6 BULAN -PRAKERIN -PKL -OUTSOURCING
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Kris Antoni - Toge Productions
Indonesia Game Rating System is labeling adult sexual content games as suitable for 3+ yo while award winning games such as Claire Obscure and Metal Gear Solid Delta are labeled not fit for distribution in Indonesia
Kris Antoni - Toge Productions tweet media
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Mado
Mado@madokafc1·
In short Indonesia actually living on their own bubble, have their own pace, unbothered and almost shielded from any global shock entirely. There is also trade off, Indonesia would always unable to catch high speed economy build up like most of East Asian industrial exporter countries like China, Japan and South Korea in the past which can easily gain 7 percent economic growth per year or more in case of China. Indonesia becoming the largest unseen country in the world is not for nothing apparently 😂😂
Pink Bourbon@pinkbourbon8898

They're right for Japan, Korea, and Singapore. Those guys source 75% of refined products from the Persian Gulf. Hormuz closes, they bleed. But Indonesia is a different story entirely. Yes, Indonesia imports refined products. Pertamina's refining capacity doesn't fully cover domestic demand, so Pertalite and Solar get bridged through imports. The Hormuz shock hits that. Real exposure. What makes Indonesia different is this. Indonesia's actual risk from this isn't supply. It's fiscal. If oil prices spike because Hormuz stays closed, the government's subsidy bill for Pertalite and Solar expands. Wider deficit, rupiah pressure. That's the bear case for Indonesia, and even that's manageable. The bull case is what nobody is talking about. Indonesia runs B40 right now. 40% of every liter of diesel consumed domestically is palm oil biodiesel, not petroleum. When oil spikes, the incentive to push toward B50 or B55 gets stronger overnight. Import volume drops. Indonesia self-hedges using its own CPO supply. No other country in Asia has this. Not Korea, not Japan, not Singapore. Then there's coal. When Hormuz disrupts LNG and oil flows into Asia, the fastest lever available to power generators in Japan, Korea, and India is gas to coal switching. Indonesia is the world's largest seaborne thermal coal exporter. ADARO, ITMG, PTBA, BUMI don't suffer from this scenario. Export volumes go up. Realized prices go up. Royalty revenue to the government goes up. Same logic on LNG. Indonesia exports from Bontang and Tangguh. When Middle Eastern supply gets disrupted, the spot premium on non Gulf LNG widens. Indonesian cargoes price up. Same logic on CPO. High oil equals strong biodiesel demand globally equals strong CPO prices. Indonesia and Malaysia control 85% of global supply. You see, Indonesia pays more for refined product imports. Fiscal subsidy pressure rises. Rupiah is a watch item. Those are real negatives. But Indonesia earns more on coal exports, earns more on LNG spot, earns more on CPO, and reduces net petroleum import volume through accelerated biodiesel blending. The terms of trade move in Indonesia's favor, not against it. The conventional take is "Indonesia is a net oil importer so oil shock is bad." The correct take is Indonesia is a net energy exporter in the commodities that directly substitute for disrupted Persian Gulf supply. A sustained Hormuz closure improves Indonesia's aggregate energy trade position, not deteriorates it. Happy Sunday and Happy Easter.

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Pink Bourbon
Pink Bourbon@pinkbourbon8898·
They're right for Japan, Korea, and Singapore. Those guys source 75% of refined products from the Persian Gulf. Hormuz closes, they bleed. But Indonesia is a different story entirely. Yes, Indonesia imports refined products. Pertamina's refining capacity doesn't fully cover domestic demand, so Pertalite and Solar get bridged through imports. The Hormuz shock hits that. Real exposure. What makes Indonesia different is this. Indonesia's actual risk from this isn't supply. It's fiscal. If oil prices spike because Hormuz stays closed, the government's subsidy bill for Pertalite and Solar expands. Wider deficit, rupiah pressure. That's the bear case for Indonesia, and even that's manageable. The bull case is what nobody is talking about. Indonesia runs B40 right now. 40% of every liter of diesel consumed domestically is palm oil biodiesel, not petroleum. When oil spikes, the incentive to push toward B50 or B55 gets stronger overnight. Import volume drops. Indonesia self-hedges using its own CPO supply. No other country in Asia has this. Not Korea, not Japan, not Singapore. Then there's coal. When Hormuz disrupts LNG and oil flows into Asia, the fastest lever available to power generators in Japan, Korea, and India is gas to coal switching. Indonesia is the world's largest seaborne thermal coal exporter. ADARO, ITMG, PTBA, BUMI don't suffer from this scenario. Export volumes go up. Realized prices go up. Royalty revenue to the government goes up. Same logic on LNG. Indonesia exports from Bontang and Tangguh. When Middle Eastern supply gets disrupted, the spot premium on non Gulf LNG widens. Indonesian cargoes price up. Same logic on CPO. High oil equals strong biodiesel demand globally equals strong CPO prices. Indonesia and Malaysia control 85% of global supply. You see, Indonesia pays more for refined product imports. Fiscal subsidy pressure rises. Rupiah is a watch item. Those are real negatives. But Indonesia earns more on coal exports, earns more on LNG spot, earns more on CPO, and reduces net petroleum import volume through accelerated biodiesel blending. The terms of trade move in Indonesia's favor, not against it. The conventional take is "Indonesia is a net oil importer so oil shock is bad." The correct take is Indonesia is a net energy exporter in the commodities that directly substitute for disrupted Persian Gulf supply. A sustained Hormuz closure improves Indonesia's aggregate energy trade position, not deteriorates it. Happy Sunday and Happy Easter.
HFI Research@HFI_Research

Goldman on oil.

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