Two top Iranian officials were killed overnight in separate strikes. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani and Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani.
@epawawx@NWS_MountHolly Lower Macungie got it bad with the winds. Lots of fire calls for trees and wires. I think it's raining with some sleet mixed in right now
Friend sent me this - not sure the source, so if you know from where I'll give them credit. But this is South Allentown between Lehigh St. and Mack Blvd. This had to be some serious wind that did this...
@NWS_MountHolly not sure if you were given this info, but I was born/raised there (Allentown) and I clearly recognize the location... this damage is the intersection of Downyflake Lane and S. 12th st. in South Allentown.
You hear meteorologists talk a lot about instability and how the sun helps with that. Very true. But every now and again you get a dynamic system that is synoptically driven. That is what we're witnessing this evening. It is 11:00 p.m. in March, instability is crap, but shear is through the roof... and we're getting wind gusts 55-70mph (observed) from a squall line that is the culmination of a strong cold front on the lead of a very deep and negatively tilted trough. This is synoptics. This is physics. This is thermodynamics.
The tornado threat appears to be lowering, so we've started cutting back the watch from northwest to southeast. The risk still exists along and southeast of I-95 for the time being. That having been said, the front late tonight may yet produce strong damaging winds late this eve
The threat for severe thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon and evening as storms spread from west to east across the area. If you observe any severe weather or damage, please submit your reports here. Only report when it is safe to do so!
#PAwx#NJwx#DEwx#MDwx
Since I shared this [normally private] proprietary severe outlook yesterday, this is the update to it today. Basically the best severe timing window bumped up 2 hours for most areas. Probability-based approach.
If anyone comes at us in hindsight saying we hyped this day, you're gone. If nothing else, for not understanding how probability works and for being a moron.
⚠️⛈️🌬️ Severe thunderstorms & strong southerly winds will develop this afternoon & evening. Storms beginning as early as 2 PM, but peaking between 5-11 PM from west to east. Scattered tree damage & power outages possible. Stay weather aware today! #PAwx#NJwx#DEwx#MDwx
I don't know who needs to hear this, but SPC risk levels don't necessarily imply higher wind. Just higher "probability" of severe gusts (58mph+)
I'm seeing some correlate slight risk with 60-70mph, enhanced risk 70-80mph, moderate risk with 80-90mph. Not how it works. At all.
𝗦𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝟭𝟲𝘁𝗵:
These are our proprietary outlooks, independent of the NWS Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow, Monday March 16th. Rather than regurgitate SPC information and passing it along which benefits no one, this is what a weather consulting firm does behind the scenes using our own proprietary methods. Typically this information is available only to forum and text alert members and private clients of EPAWA, but today is a freebie.
The self-explanatory probability chart is the most valuable information in this case, with timing and chances to see the severe/on-severe parameters listed. If your location isn't on the chart, pick the closest one to you.