@gummibear737 Please stop. At least be honest. This war has nothing to so with the security of Europe.
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em_gorilla
75 posts
em_gorilla
@em_gorilla
EM credit guy. Here for the conversation not your subscriptions.
Katılım Mart 2022
632 Takip Edilen37 Takipçiler
What really pisses me off is that what's at stake is a nuclear armed Iran with ballistic missiles that can hit Paris
The result would be Europe (and the world) held hostage by Iran because mutually assured destruction doesn't work as a deterrent when one side embraces martyrdom
Batya Ungar-Sargon@bungarsargon
The chutzpah is staggering: Europe is whining about not being able to rely on the US at the exact moment Europe is demonstrating that the US can’t rely on them, depriving us of even minimal assistance in a battle against a global enemy of the West—which includes Europe, though they seem to have forgotten it. My column: "The War in Iran Was a Test for Europe. It Failed." batyaus.substack.com/p/the-war-in-i…
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@stevehou Then US looses power that is the issue, not the potential toll that Iran will charge.
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I’d be ok with this scenario tbh. Handing the Strait of Hormuz to Iran and let them charge a reasonable toll.
Marko Jukic@mmjukic
Iran is not going to drive oil prices to $200/barrel if Trump just walks away. They are going to be confused for two weeks and then will just charge everyone a small fee for transit, which everyone will gladly pay. If they get attacked again, they will re-close the Strait.
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What is worse is that Israel and the Jews, who owe their existence to Iran, are allowing Trump to get away with this. The Israelis should never have accepted the no-kill list that America gave them. They’d have saved the United States from making its last and worst mistake.
Jason Reza Jorjani@Jason_Jorjani
When will you realize that Trump is deliberately keeping the regime in power so that America can hold Iranians hostage, punish and humiliate them, devastate Iran, and loot its resources? If the regime changes, and Iran becomes a US ally, he can’t do any of that. We were betrayed.
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Yes, despite all the Xperts on the law of armed conflict, targeting bridges, power plants, oil and gas facilities, airfields, and other dual-use infrastructure like factories, communications nodes, and rail lines that serve both civilian and military needs may be lawful. The law does not decide targets just by calling something civilian infrastructure. It looks at what the object actually does. An object counts as a military objective when by its nature, location, purpose, or use makes an effective contribution to military action and its total or partial destruction, capture, or disabling offers a definite military advantage in the circumstances at the time. 🧵1/6
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Not new but yes this is the plan.
Trita Parsi@tparsi
This is a MUST read article by @smeslami & Zeynab Malakouti! It reveals how Tehran's calculations re the Straits have changed. Rather than use this leverage to negotiate an end to the war, Tehran is looking to establish a permanent transit fee mechanism and use its leverage to reestablish economic relations with countries who - due to US sanctions - have more or less ended their ties with Iran. responsiblestatecraft.org/strait-of-horm…
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"We were going to get regime change..really close... but then the Kurds stole the weapons"
LOL
Conflict Radar@Conflict_Radar
BREAKING: Trump says Kurds kept weapons sent to Iranian protesters "We sent Protesters a lot of guns. We sent them through the Kurds. And I think the Kurds kept them. We sent guns to the protesters, a lot of them. And I think the Kurds took the guns"
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@gummibear737 Please guys you need to decide. Was it to block energy flow to China, to block Iranian nuclear weapons (which were obliterated) to block Iranian terrorist fianancing, to save the world, to save Middle East from the Iranian threat. Decide and stick to one point.
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This was a "War of Choice" is the current popular talking point
Okay, but then be honest enough to explain the choices
Option 1: Iran stockpiles ICBMs that can hit the entire eastern hemisphere to establish sufficient deterrence to build nukes
Option 2: Deny Iran these weapons
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@liuah37340 @TMTLongShort Thats the right way of thinking. Since we have renounced any political correctness , it’s better to be brutally honest and not talk about defending freedom and democracy.
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@em_gorilla @TMTLongShort Taiwanese here. We don’t expect American to save us out of generosity or love. Being a pariah state in the world for decades we know realpolitik better than any country, maybe except Israel. But we know when interests cross it’s real and it takes commitment. Hence success of TSMC
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If this is the lengths we will go to in order to rescue a single American soldier what kind of lengths should we go to in order to ensure China can’t continue to build its military with the express intent of targeting American sailors defending Taiwan. What about the 100s of thousands who have died from fentanyl.
If the risk is the SPX goes down so be it. If the risk is Europe de-industrializes so be it.
Every American life is precious. Don’t let the demoralized and defeated outsiders convince you otherwise. 🫡
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@AndreasSteno Didn’t you call for lower oil imediately after the begining of the war ?
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The amount of insults I have received based on this tells me that we are very very close to peak oil here
Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno
Markets typically bottom, when the rate of change improves
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@piersmorgan @realDonaldTrump The hypocrisy of thinking things were normal before that.
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This is embarrassing, Delete it, President @realDonaldTrump - unless you want everyone to think you’ve lost your marbles.
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@macrokurd Indeed I am quite unsure about the timing of this realization.
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Time to 'declare victory' and move on?
More important question is how Iran behaves post that point.
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz
Trump’s Iran Ultimatum Has Boxed Him In The prospect of a negotiated agreement with Iran, at least under current conditions is close to nonexistent. In practical terms, talks are not even underway. And the terms that would make a deal possible from Tehran’s perspective are politically untenable in Washington: a halt to U.S. military pressure, credible guarantees against future attacks, tacit recognition of Iran’s position in key maritime chokepoints, and likely some form of compensation. This is precisely why the familiar “carrots and sticks” framework is unlikely to succeed. It assumes a willingness to trade concessions for relief. But Iran’s leadership today does not see itself under sufficient pressure to compromise. On the contrary, it views the current moment as one of strategic advantage. That reality raises a more troubling question: Is the president being presented with a clear-eyed assessment of Iran’s posture? The U.S. government has no shortage of seasoned Iran experts. Yet recent public statements suggest a persistent gap between Washington’s expectations and Tehran’s calculations. Mr. Trump’s ultimatum reflects that gap. By setting terms Iran is almost certain to reject, he has narrowed his own options to two unattractive paths. He can escalate, risking a sharp disruption to global energy markets and potentially severe damage to the international economy. Or he can step back without an agreement, a move that would hand Iran a narrative of resilience and erode the credibility of U.S. pressure. A third option, delaying the deadline under the pretense that progress is imminent may buy time. But it would come at the cost of further undermining U.S. credibility, both with adversaries and allies. There is, in short, no easy exit. And absent a fundamental reassessment of Iran’s strategic mindset, Washington risks making decisions based on a misreading of the other side, one that could prove far more costly than anticipated. #iran
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@macrokurd Declaring victory and moving on means US faces a strategic loss nobody is ready for that.
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em_gorilla retweetledi
He is desperate for a deal before markets open, but if I was the IRGC, with the my leverage being markets, I would deny him this off-ramp…
Polymarket@Polymarket
JUST IN: Trump says he believes he'll be able to get a deal with Iran by tomorrow.
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@em_gorilla The latter. I have many flaws but wrapping our actions as anything other than self interest isn’t one of them.
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Hilarious take. US provided security and got in return hegemony, which in simple terms means I tell you what to do. You also had the privilege of paying all these things with the de facto reserve currency the dollar which you can print. Nato apart from security is also projecting US power across the world. So this was a balanced trade. If US suddenly realized that globalization is squeezing the middle class (which is a global phenomenon) you should look at other places for the causes.
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Europeans don't understand that America has been the world's daddy for the last 80 years out of idealism, not self-interest. Americans genuinely believe in defending freedom and democracy, and they elected Trump because they're tired of receiving only hate and contempt in return for their sacrifices.
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Russia evacuates 198 more staff from Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant, agencies report | Reuters reuters.com/world/russia-e…
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Not its primary out of generosity and naivety 😂
Julia Macfarlane@juliamacfarlane
Too many Americans (especially those formerly in politics and who should know better) keep talking about NATO like it’s only about subsidising allies’ defence and not also about enabling US to forward project closer to its hegemonic rivals.
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