Neil Morrison

I have the Kremlin rattled.

European reluctance to side with the U.S. on Iran is directly connected to recent U.S. threats of using military force to seize the territory of a European Union member-state. So yes, look at Greenland 🇬🇱

@mattyglesias @codybrown He engaged in a polite manner, why not choose to not reply rather than block.

@codybrown Iran’s navy and Air Force were total jokes, the fact that you’re raising this point suggests to me that there is no value in engaging with you on the topic so I’m going to block you now. Have a nice day.

Financial markets’ conviction that this whole Strait of Hormuz thing has been solved is really puzzling me.

Great scoop here. "Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave the Islamic republic a powerful new capability to target US military bases across the Middle East during the recent war, according to a Financial Times investigation." ft.com/content/1fddd2…

How pivotal Qassem Soleimani was to Iran project, as told by him: He sat with Putin for 2 full hours, laid Syria’s military maps on the table, detailed every scenario & what was needed. Putin decided to intervene in Syria then & there: “I’m now convinced”

When President Trump talks about a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a way to "kill Iran's economy," we need to remember who stands behind Iran's resilience. Above all, it is China, and not only as a buyer of oil, but as a strategic partner that benefits from Iran remaining a destabilizing force in the Middle East. Russia, of course, as well, but Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. Iran is a tool. For China, Iran serves one simple purpose: to keep the Middle East in a state of chronic instability, which costs the US money, attention, and reputation. ◾️ First, the Iran war is pulling American potential away from Asia right now. The US has deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, two destroyers, two naval task forces, and Patriot and THAAD systems to the Middle East, depleting its stockpile of Tomahawk cruise missiles, which are critical for a potential Taiwan scenario. ◾️ Second, the crisis translates into a blow to the American authority and concessions. Every Middle Eastern war weakens the trust of Asian allies in the United States. Japan and South Korea are already experiencing delays in deliveries of ordered US weapons. Taiwan is watching as Washington trades off its security for the sake of a summit with Beijing: Trump delayed a multi-billion-dollar arms package to Taiwan so as not to jeopardize the summit with President Xi. ◾️ Third, China is the sole beneficiary of the oil blockade of Iran. Despite sanctions, Iran earned $54 billion in 2022 and $53 billion in 2023. Where does this oil go? To China. More than 90% of Iranian oil exports are absorbed by the Chinese market, primarily through networks of small independent oil refineries in Shandong province. The scheme is worked out down to the last detail. Iranian tankers turn off their transponders, transfer oil "ship-to-ship" off the coast of Malaysia, relabel the cargo as Malaysian or Indonesian, and settle payments in yuan through small banks outside the dollar infrastructure. In 2025, these shadow tankers made over 1,500 voyages from Iran to China. ◾️ Fourth, Iran is increasingly serving as a testing ground for China's indirect military-technical support. According to US officials, the Chinese company SMIC supplied Iranian military structures with equipment for chip production and, likely, technical training. Ships carrying sodium perchlorate - a key component of solid rocket fuel - were set to depart from Chinese ports. Iran was also nearing a deal to purchase Chinese CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missiles, which pose a direct threat to US ships in the Gulf. And US intelligence is now recording possible preparations to transfer MANPADS to Iran via third countries. Some claims regarding deeper support, particularly concerning BeiDou and Chinese air defense systems, remain disputed, but the overall direction is clear: China is helping Iran not only survive under pressure but also raise the cost of the US military presence in the region. Therefore, a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not pointless in terms of pressuring Iran, as it could physically cut off a significant portion of exports that ultimately go to China. But it is a crude instrument: it hurts not only Iran and China, but the entire energy system of the region, global prices, and US allies. That is precisely why this move is both powerful and strategically toxic.

@smithkstead Films like Boy never got made.

NZ produced some incredible local films, but peter jackson got john key to gut the film unions and now everything is an overseas production using "the mexicans of the south pacific", which is what hollywood types now call NZ film workers (according to friends in the industry)

I personally find it difficult to find common ground with Marjorie Taylor Greene, a full-throated pro-Iran, pro-Russia, Islamophobic, antisemitic lunatic who has engaged in 9/11 trutherism and QAnon conspiracies.

They’re so mad.

@PronouncedHare Are you suggesting that judicial discretion should be limited?

This needs to stop and the law should be reformed if required. The law should not produce different outcomes to privilege higher status careers over lower ones. If the guy has to find work is a lower profile field so be it.

@PronouncedHare What if the lesson Trump learned from Venezuela wasn’t a military one but his control over the largest oil reserves and that he knew Iran would try and close Hormuz. There’s plenty of speculation since we don’t know what’s bouncing around Trump’s mind. But if he did have plan…

Donald Trump is a self-absorbed Promethean neo-Pelagian.

@PronouncedHare Given the amount of resources Putin invested in making this election anything but free and fair I think it’s reasonable to see this as a form of colour revolution.

it would be good if Western leaders could stop treating free and fair elections that result in governments they find more appealing as if they were colour revolutions in the former Soviet Union.

@PronouncedHare He opposed the exploration of migrant workers and doesn’t support Putin so I’d regard that as a substantial improvement.

It's really telling about the narrativisation of media that this is being hailed as some great repudiation of populist politics when, to tip Orban out, the Hungarian opposition had to resort to this guy:

„by Israel's own admission, the majority of those attacked in Lebanon were low-level commanders and ordinary operatives, the kind there are thousands of. Is it possible to justify such extensive harm to the civilian population in order to strike at targets like these, which can easily be replaced?“

also ehrlichgesagt.. solche posts sind einfach nur dumm. u.a. auch deswegen, weil jcpoa dem iran eine massive stärkung der iranischen milizen ermöglichte. obama hatte die idee, das wird immer unterschlagen, dass iran durch das wirtschaftswachstum, das nach jcpoa entstehen kann, sich in die weltgemeinschaft zurückentwickel. werde. das geld landete in aufrüstung. iran hat damit seinen krieg in syrien finanziert. die machtübernahme im irak und waffenproduktion der houthis im yemen. dass die houthis im roten meer schiffe beschießen können ist auch eine folge von jcpoa und dem, was es ermöglicht hat. und da reden wir noch nicht über libanon, in dem die hisbollah eine miliz zur durchsetzung iranischer interessen massiv aufgerüstet wurde.

@PronouncedHare As long as all the required mining gets done overseas.

Someone needs to make an Inverse Hickey ETF like they have for Jim Cramer.

@PronouncedHare My impression is that those who are extremely cynical are also extremely naive. Both sides of wanting simple stories, or if you’re Greenwald - money, or both.

I believe that every person has the same level of cynicism on them. And that’s why people who are completely cynical about the United States and Israel are completely naive about Iran and even the PRC. Or the other way around.

@PronouncedHare Let them pick grapes

And as for the people who need the jobs? Well they can train them instead to play paleontologists or spies in old movies and television shows. Those are much better paying jobs anyway.

For those who don’t know, this is what #Iran and Hezbollah did to Homs while supporting the Assad regime against the Syrian people 🇸🇾. Entire neighborhoods were reduced to rubble. #Syria

Kaja Kallas: "If you think about Russia now helping Iran, if you think about some of the Gulf countries that have been helping to circumvent the sanctions we have against Iran, that they are now able to attack these countries... If we were in it together as our adversaries clearly are, then we would be much stronger."

The deal is going to wind up being that the Trump family gets cut in on the tolls, isn't it?