Amos Adie
47K posts

Amos Adie
@eraadie
Oil and Gas Engineer,Father 🏎 🏒 Gunners RTs not endorsement

SAM ALTMAN: “WE SEE A FUTURE WHERE INTELLIGENCE IS A UTILITY, LIKE ELECTRICITY OR WATER, AND PEOPLE BUY IT FROM US ON A METER.”



Kenya’s national electricity peak demand is currently around 2,440 MW. Electricity growth is 8.5% per annum and this year we need to add equivalent energy from approx. 207 MW. In the last 7yrs when we had the new power plant moratorium (plus the 2-3yrs needed to move a quick project from PPA negotiations to Commissioning), we needed to have added a minimum of 1200 MW base load generation - which was unfortunately missed out. Regarding the “new narrative” about wind and solar….. Remember most of these variable renewable energy sources have 20yrs worth of site data since feasibility study and 10yrs years 24/7 data since operations. For two decade we have always known that the average capacity factor for utility-scale Solar plants in Kenya is: ~20–30%. The Average Kenya utility-scale wind is between 35–50% with LTWP reaching 55%. So technically you can only confidentially talk of 1/4 of the Solar and 1/2 of the Wind. With Data running for 10-20yrs plus an extremely good AI forecasting tools plus the tracking factors that affect wind speed, temperature and cloud cover, it’s not to difficult to project/forecast the amount of energy expected from VREs in the next few days. All in all, we need an adequate and resilient network - generation capacity and grid - with enough spinning reserves. Existing Wind and Solar plants - built years ago - are totally innocent 😇 in causing a current load shedding. Wind and Solar has never changed performance from the 10-20yrs available data.























