
EricMack.eth
8.4K posts

EricMack.eth
@EricCMack
Practicing decentralization @MetaMask @JournoDAO @Forbes sr contrib \ Off-Grid @ Our Uncertain Future \ Monitoring the situation @ https://t.co/4z6pLSTuEZ
New Mexico Katılım Temmuz 2008
3.9K Takip Edilen9.5K Takipçiler

All eyes on the Middle East for good reason, but this week I'm very interested in the California governor's race where Eric Swallwell's departure saw Tom Steyer soar into the lead on @polymarket, but meanwhile pundits cautiously call the race a toss-up. The divergence between the crowd and experts on this one is huge at the moment. polymarket.com/event/californ…
English
EricMack.eth retweetledi

The work that keeps Ethereum safe is about to be backed at scale.
Our first round goes live soon, with over $1M dedicated to Ethereum security.
Today is the last day to apply if you want your project accepted or rejected before the round starts.
Apply here: qf.giveth.io/qf/apply
Giveth@Giveth
English

@owocki I resolved in 1996 to follow a career path that never required me to learn how to tie a tie by myself. Three decades of happily maintaining this willfull ignorance speaks volumes on how far we've come as a society.
English

i used to worry that to do BD or advance my career id have to become some phony who does things he do not geniunely enjoy - like golfing or networking under flourescant lights in a cubicle farm
i'm glad to report that this was wrong. by being in a frontier that actually interests you, its totally possible to be plenty successful at relationship building just by curiousitymaxxing, earnestmaxxing, vibemaxxing, and valueshare-maxxing
English

24 hrs after LP6 published: @Polymarket's US-Iran permanent deal by June 30 jumped from 59% to 69%. Markets are more optimistic about Islamabad round two than the diplomats are publicly. lowpass.substack.com
English
EricMack.eth retweetledi


@EricCMack What do you think the actual odds are of that happening?
English

Some very spice debate continuing in comments on this disputed resolution as people continue to buy lottery tickets on the long shot that it is overturned and no new forces enter the country before April 30 - polymarket.com/event/us-force…
English

Full issue now live for paid subs - open.substack.com/pub/lowpass/p/…
English

LP#6 preview nugget: If the Islamabad talks produce a deal this week, BTC likely breaks $80K. If they collapse, the $60K downside returns. Crypto is a ceasefire bet right now, and nothing else.
English

Perspective and compartmentalization have always been critical tools for me when it comes to being able to track and work in news closely without losing my mind. It probably helps that I was never the most ambitious journalist. However, it does seem now that the task of staying informed but not going insane is harder than ever. @JohannaDeBiase put together this guide for avoiding information overwhelm in a world that is at once exciting and terrifying in new ways.
open.substack.com/pub/johannadeb…

English

The @Polymarket "Trump ends military operations against Iran" curve dumped overnight.
Apr 15: 19% → 7%
Apr 30: 52% → 41%
Jun 30: 82% → 78%
The ceasefire market resolved to 100%. The end-of-war market went the opposite direction. Trump is threatening attacks "bigger than anyone's ever seen" while claiming victory on the deal. The money is listening to the threats, not the victory lap.
English

Hungary election this weekend and there's clear divergence between polls and @Polymarket .
Independent polls see Tisza/Magyar winning popular vote by 15-20 pts. But the money only gives Magyar a 68% chance of becoming PM.
The gap implies there could be structural manipulation or fraud severe enough to overcome a double-digit deficit. Either the market knows something the pollsters don't, or bettors are over-indexing on "Orbán always wins"
Clearest market-vs-polls test in the portfolio right now. Will be watching at lowpass.substack.com
English

The ceasefire market resolved. The war didn't end. More in the next Low Pass: lowpass.substack.com
English

2/ And that was before Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz this morning in response to Israeli strikes on Lebanon. The central concession that made the deal possible was reversed within 24 hours. Iran's parliament speaker is already claiming three clauses have been violated. x.com/mb_ghalibaf/st…
English

The @Polymarket Iran ceasefire contract resolved to 100%. A deal exists on paper. But look at the market right next to it — Trump announces end of military operations — and the picture changes fast.
April 15: 19%
April 30: 52%
June 30: 82%
The money is saying there's an 81% chance this war is still formally ongoing a week from now.
English

The market is still showing as in review, but the vote on UMA is essentially over with 99.9% backing "yes" - so this is an instance of an edge case not accounted for the market rules leading to a resolution that's odds with the general understanding of the same market. Am I wrong?
EricMack.eth@EricCMack
About 5 hours left on the dispute resolution clock
English

