0xEmil retweetledi
a drunk Chinese friend who works as a quant slipped me a napkin with 8 words on it
we were at a rooftop in tel aviv. he was three cocktails past the professional filter.
i mentioned prediction markets. he laughed. grabbed a napkin from the bar. scribbled in english.
"disposition. category. velocity. cross-market. news. volume. whale. theta."
i asked what it means.
"eight signals. every mistake on these markets is one of them. we run detectors in parallel. enter only when three or more fire"
i asked how long it took to build.
"two years. fourteen quants"
i asked if i could just do it myself.
he laughed harder.
"with Claude? tonight probably"
i don't think he meant to say that part. he looked at the napkin like he regretted writing it.
too late. i pocketed it.
went home. opened Claude at 11PM.
typed the eight words.
"build a parallel detector grid on prediction markets. 8 signals. enter only when 3 or more fire simultaneously"
Claude needed a backbone. i gave it:
github.com/warproxxx/poly…
610 stars. market making bot. order book execution on both sides. position sizing. the foundation for anything that needs to place real orders fast.
terminal was live by 2AM.
the radar lights up 14 times per hour. most signals fire alone. rare ones stack.
last week:
> BRICS summit - 74c. 4 signals. +24c in 3h.
> Artemis launch - 63c. 5 signals. +33c in 5h10m.
> Helium-3 demo - 68c. 3 signals. +14c in 48m.
> Waymo public - 67c. 4 signals. +8c in 6m.
sentiment feed reads 4 platforms:
- X/CT: 56% bearish
- Reddit: 53%
- Telegram: 17%
- Discord: 75%
when sentiment diverges from flow pressure by 20%+ the contrarian signal fires. 83% win rate on those.
cross-market delta catches gaps:
BTC 92K vs Kalshi 7.7c
Fed cut vs PredictIt 7.2c
AAPL>180 vs Manifold 5.7c
oracle delta tracks NOAA, AP, CoinGecko, Reuters. when a feed moves before the market adjusts, the bot enters on the lag.
6 wallets copied by dominant category:
> 0xe41f8...b2 - $483 profit. 83% wr.
> 0xa22c3...d9 - $890. 67%.
> voltwhale - $593. 55%.
> 0xf88d2...c4 - $830. 73%.
412 trades. 76% win rate. avg hold 5h22m. best $232. worst -$37. 9 consecutive wins.
+$12,640. from a $900 seed. 4 weeks live.
copytrade setup: @1743116" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@1743116
i haven't seen him since that night.
the napkin is still in my drawer.
i don't think he remembers writing it.
Hanako@hanakoxbt
English
