Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي

My interview for @syriawise. We discuss the current war in #Gaza, my views regarding intern'l politics & a lot more. #Syriawise is an independent outlet aiming to expose the lies & propaganda on what has been happening in #Syria. Honoured to be part of it. syriawise.com/koulouriotis-a…

🧵Thread The first round of negotiations between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors began in Washington two days ago, coinciding with an increase in Israeli airstrikes targeting positions and members of the Hezbollah militia in southern Lebanon, as well as the advance of Israeli forces further along the Litani River. Meanwhile, Hezbollah's reliance on suicide drones is growing, a development that is beginning to worry the Northern Command of the IDF. This is an analysis of the ongoing, albeit quiet, war on the Israeli-Lebanese border, between the negotiations in Washington, Baabda Palace in Beirut, and Islamabad. 1/

The bottom line: While everyone is watching Trump's decision following the end of his visit to Beijing, and in light of statements from Trump himself and officials in his administration confirming that negotiations with Tehran in Islamabad have reached a dead end (something I personally expected a day after the ceasefire was announced), it seems we are closer than ever to a decision from the White House to launch a new military operation against the Iranian regime. On the Lebanese-Israeli border, the scene is increasingly tending towards a full-scale war. Hezbollah is redeploying its forces north of the Litani River, hoping to make any new ground operation by the IDF north of the river costly. Meanwhile, Netanyahu's administration is preparing to expand its target bank in Lebanon with the start of the new military operation, which may include political figures and facilities belonging to the Lebanese state. As for the Washington negotiations, they are doomed to fail before they even begin. The Israeli administration knows this, Hezbollah knows this, the Lebanese government knows this, and even Washington knows this. What is actually happening is a waste of time until Trump makes his decision regarding war or peace with Tehran. A new American-Israeli military operation against Iran is imminent, and a new Israeli military operation against Hezbollah is only a matter of time. 🧵

Third, Hezbollah, as a militia or political party, although based on the Lebanese Shiite community, does not have the authority to make decisions regarding war and peace. Its leadership is part of Khomeini's strategy to export the Islamic Revolution, with an ideological allegiance to the doctrine of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist (Wilayat al-Faqih)in Tehran. Therefore, is it in Tehran's interest to abandon Hezbollah, a card that has consistently proven effective as both a supporter and a deterrent? In practical terms, the September 2024 war, which resulted in the temporary weakening of the militia, paved the way for the Israeli administration to launch the 12-day war last year, and made Washington and Jerusalem's decision to initiate the latest war less complicated. Thus, it is illogical to expect that Tehran will abandon Hezbollah, especially given the IRGCS's de facto control over decisions regarding war and peace, and their strong adherence to the regional deterrence strategy developed by General Soleimani. Ultimately, the decision to keep Hezbollah in Lebanon and to retain or surrender its weapons rests with Tehran, and Tehran is not currently prepared to burn one of its most important regional assets. 7/

🧵Thread About twenty-four hours after Trump announced the launch of what he called "Operation Freedom," the American president reversed course and announced its suspension. Trump justified the move by citing progress in talks in Islamabad, where US and Iranian officials were exchanging messages. Many observers see this as an indication of a weakness in the American position, while others believe Iran has yielded to US pressure, especially given the IRGC’s announcement yesterday of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is a brief reading of the diplomatic scene between Washington and Tehran, while Israel remains focused on the Lebanese arena and stands by, awaiting Trump's decision on peace or war. 1/

The bottom line: As observers, we find it difficult to predict the next move of any of the parties to the conflict. In Washington, no American or non-American politician or political analyst can predict the next step of the United States. The matter rests in Trump’s hands, one of the most unpredictable American presidents, whose thoughts are impossible to anticipate. In Iran, meanwhile, Aragchi announces the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, only for the IRGC to attack ships attempting to cross the strait hours later. Amid this division, Tehran's next move is equally difficult to predict. In Israel, while the Netanyahu administration keeps the door open for negotiations with Lebanon, explosions rock Beirut's southern suburbs following the assassination of the commander of the Radwan unit. At the same time, within the Security Cabinet in Jerusalem, the Iran file, along with images of the IRGC commander and other military leaders, awaits a decision from Netanyahu, who may conclude that strategic patience is not in Israel's best interest. In this frenzy, logical and rational political analysis becomes increasingly difficult, and predicting the future of the Middle East begins to resemble Schrödinger's cat experiment: outcomes cannot be known until they actually occur. 🧵

The fourth scenario: the final strike In this scenario, Trump adopts a decision to deliver a final strike against Iranian energy infrastructure, or the operation escalates into a ground military campaign targeting the islands of Qeshm and Kharg. Following this, Trump would declare the end of the war. 11/