Ivan Murphy

Delighted to be Non-Executive Director and Co-Founder with Ivan Murphy (@eyemurph) of 1947 Oil & Gas PLC (@1947plc). A REAL US OIL PRODUCER!

Chevron CEO warns oil prices to jump over summer as supplies dwindle ft.trib.al/Am6E657

@CommodMkt @1947plc

You cannot print molecules. You cannot print the rigs $BORR that lift them either. In a gold rush, the money isn't in the gold. It's in the picks and shovels. Shale is likely finished as a source of growth. The remaining short-cycle barrels now sit in shallow water — and the Middle East has spent fifteen years drilling its way offshore as its onshore fields deplete. Saudi, the UAE, Qatar: all the growth is offshore now. That barrel needs one thing above all else: a jack-up fleet. However, there are zero new orders and zero new-yard slots for years. Unsurprisingly the global fleet only shrinks — a third of the rigs on the water are over thirty years old and aging out. At $BORR they average seven. A newbuild theoretically costs $300m, and the dayrates haven’t come close to justifying one — rates must double, and lengthen, before a single rig gets ordered. Now layer the demand. The buyers are National Oil Companies (NOCs) in countries GDP is heavily exposed to the barrel — the most inelastic clients in any market. The fleet was already above 90% utilized and rising before the war. After the fighting stops: pent-up Gulf tenders, field declines to offset, shut wells to bring back. And the order book already tells you where this goes — energy-security pushing work in Vietnam, Malaysia, Suriname, Gabon. The security premium is no longer theoretical. It’s in the contracts. Either Hormuz reopens and pent-up demand from Saudi Arabia and the UAE skyrockets, or oil pushes into uncharted territory and the international NOCs pick up the tab. Few other energy assets are this exposed to both tails. Low-breakeven shallow-water barrels are the supply the world needs to meet the coming crunch. And pick-and-shovel maker gets paid whether or not the miner strikes. Now the part the market is missing. The whole enterprise trades at roughly forty cents on the cost of replacing its own steel. Enterprise value is about $4bn, split almost evenly — half debt, half equity. The debt is fixed. It does not re-rate. So every dollar the fleet gains as it runs toward newbuild parity falls straight through to the equity. That is the engine. The debt does not move; the steel does. Re-rate the fleet to what it would cost to rebuild, and the equity does not double — it quadruples. The equity does not track the steel. It multiplies it. The 4x leverage is not the risk in this trade. In the upcycle, the 4x is the trade. You can buy an irreplaceable strategic asset at less than half its replacement cost — with the leverage thrown in for free. The market is selling the quarter. We're buying the decade. $BORR is down 14% today on a delayed rig start-up and a one-time receivable provision — operational noise, not structural damage. Utilization held at 97%. Full-year coverage rose to 71%, and the back half of the year jumped from 48% to 65% booked. Nothing in the supply, the demand, or the steel has changed. The one thing that did move — the Middle East conflict — barely touched the financials and made the multi-year case stronger. Every affected rig is back at work. Tenders keep progressing. Management is more confident on 2027 and 2028, not less. The market is selling the noise and ignoring the signal. The dislocation is the entry. Get long. Buckle In. HALO.

@CommodMkt 1947 !

Ivan Murphy @eyemurph , President & Founder of 1947 Oil & Gas plc, alongside Executive Chairman Tim Duncan and Non-Executive Director & Founder Jeff Currie @CommodMkt , is hosting a series of analyst and institutional meetings in Houston this week following the Company’s successful US$10m pre IPO raise and ahead of its planned IPO later this summer. Participants including James Midgely (Cavendish), Brendan Long (Oak Securities) and David Mirzai (SP Angel) will attend meetings at Petroleum Club of Houston, offshore tour and reserve discussions with NSAI.

We are at the NSAI office in Houston with analysts studying the reserve report of 1947 Oil & Gas plc assets ahead of the planned #IPO this summer. Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc. (NSAI) is a worldwide leader in petroleum property analysis for industry, financial organisations and government agencies. Great to see such strong interest around the opportunity. @CommodMkt

A great week in Houston with analysts, institutions and industry leaders as excitement continues to build around 1947 Oil & Gas plc.  Special thanks to The Petroleum Club of Houston for hosting us. @CommodMkt

Everybody talks about the Magnificent 7, but my focus is on the  “Munificent 7”. Who are they?   They are oil companies and asset-heavy businesses generating real free cash flow yields in an AI sector that is trying to achieve breakout despite increasing constraints by energy, materials and physical scarcity.   Those oil company yields are 15.5%, whereas the AI hyperscalers are 0%. Read that back again.   The Munificent 7 are named that for a reason.

You can’t print molecules (or atoms or joules). $Abaxx is a physically settled commodities exchange that will drive true price discovery and the flow of commodities globally. As the picks and shovels play of the most asymmetric trade in financial history, $ABXX has exponential volume growth and a game-changing technology that can enable tokenization of real world assets. The Abaxx Exchange has been setting new trading volume records, highlighted by its first 50k contract day. The 50k volume level positions ABAXX as an emerging global benchmark exchange while signalling that operating breakeven economics are within reach. Additionally, $ABXX will be uplisted to the Toronto Stock Exchange this Thursday, opening up potential index inclusion in the weeks or months ahead driving more liquidity and lower cost of capital. Volumes were primarily driven by the Singapore #Gold Kilobar (SGK) & our emerging flagship #LNG (GOM, NPA) benchmarks. CEO Josh Crumb and I will be on an ATB client call this Thursday at 11am ET. Please contact your ATB representative for details.

Thank you to @SquawkBoxEurope for inviting me on this morning to discuss the structural shifts reshaping commodities and energy markets, as well as a deeper dive into AI and the problems we face with the commodities that fuel it. A lot covered off but a pleasure as always Steve Sedgwick and co: cnb.cx/4fpHZsb