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fahadhmalik
37 posts

fahadhmalik
@f3_zhd
I’m on the other side of your trade. OTC Liquidity | GCC markets | 4+ years UAE crypto desks. Documenting the institutional side publicly.
United Arab Emirates Katılım Ekim 2016
112 Takip Edilen14 Takipçiler

The bitcoin faucet is back.
04.06.26
btc.day
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A client once asked me why OTC rates vary between desks for the same asset.
The answer reveals everything about how this market actually works:
You’re not buying USDT.
You’re buying the desk’s liquidity network, counterparty relationships, and settlement reliability.
The asset is just the vehicle.
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Sovereign BTC liquidation through QCP Capital in $5M-$10M batches is textbook institutional OTC execution.
They’re not hitting exchanges because a government dumping $120M on spot markets would move price against themselves before they’re 20% done.
Batch sizing, market maker relationships, timing — this is a treasury operation, not a sell-off.
What’s interesting is the spike in transfer frequency.
When sovereign sellers accelerate their cadence it usually means one thing — they need liquidity faster than planned.
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According to Arkham, the Bhutanese government has net sold ~$120M in BTC this year, reducing its holdings by ~1,700 BTC.
Bhutan typically liquidates in $5M-$10M batches, sending funds to exchanges or market makers like QCP Capital. Recently, its transfer frequency has spiked, having just moved another 123.7 BTC (~$8.5M) to a freshaddress.
x.com/arkham/status/…

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$65M across four OTC counterparties in one week.
What most people miss here isn’t the size — it’s the structure.
Four counterparties means they deliberately split the block to avoid concentration risk with any single desk.
That’s not just a sale. That’s a sophisticated liquidity strategy.
Managing four simultaneous OTC relationships at that size requires a level of counterparty infrastructure most projects simply don’t have.
The execution tells you as much as the number does.
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226M WLD moved in a single OTC transaction through Wintermute.
This is exactly why large token treasuries use OTC instead of dumping on spot markets.
Hit a DEX or CEX with $63M in one go and you crater your own price before you’re half filled.
OTC lets you move size without becoming your own worst enemy.
The block size, the counterparty choice, the timing — all deliberate.
This is treasury management, not a token sale.
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Worldcoin has sold 226.43M $WLD via OTC over the past 9 days, receiving 63M $USDC.
They also deposited 35.8M $USDC to Circle for cash-out.
For about 2 years, Worldcoin has been selling $WLD through platforms like Flow Traders and Wintermute, doing so every few days.
This time, they sold 226.43M $WLD($63M) in one go via OTC.
intel.arkm.com/explorer/addre…
intel.arkm.com/explorer/addre…


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Binance OTC volume hitting 25% of 2025’s full year total in just 2 months tells you everything about where institutional appetite is right now.
The BTC OTC share jump from 4.91% to 45.81% in a single month isn’t noise — that’s a structural shift in how institutions are allocating.
They’re not buying through exchanges. They’re calling desks.
Stablecoin inflows rising alongside it confirms the pattern — capital is being pre-positioned for large block execution.
The institutions aren’t coming. They’re already here and moving size.
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According to Binance Blog, Binance OTC volume in the first two months of 2026 reached ~25% of 2025's total, showing strong institutional demand. BTC's OTC share surged from 4.91% in Jan to 45.81% in Feb, while stablecoin/fiat inflows rose from 21.43% to 48.95%, signaling accelerated institutional crypto allocation.

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Disagree on the timeline. Agree on the direction.
5 years assumes custody infrastructure, regulatory clarity, and liquidity depth across all major markets move in sync.
They won’t.
The tokenized equivalents will exist in 5 years. But the OTC liquidity rails to make them actually tradeable at institutional scale will take longer.
The product is easy. The infrastructure behind it is not.
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Goldman calling a cycle bottom is notable — but OTC desks don’t wait for Goldman.
Block order flow tells you where institutional conviction is before any analyst report does.
When large buyers start moving size quietly through OTC channels — that’s your real bottom signal.
Goldman confirms what the desks already knew weeks ago.
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Goldman Sachs says crypto prices may be nearing a cycle bottom after months of declines, with the drawdown close to historical averages.
Crypto-related stocks are down about 46% from their October 2025 highs, with valuations becoming more attractive. Goldman highlights Robinhood, Figure Technologies, and Coinbase as top picks. However, it warns trading volumes could decline further, potentially weighing on 2026 revenue (-2%) and profits (-4%), with low-volume periods typically lasting around three months.
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BNP Paribas offering crypto ETNs to retail clients under MiFID II is the clearest signal yet that institutional infrastructure is normalizing crypto exposure.
What’s interesting from an OTC perspective — as regulated products like this grow, so does the demand for large-block underlying liquidity.
Retail gets the ETN. Institutions are moving the BTC and ETH behind it.
The product is new. The OTC demand it creates is not.
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BNP Paribas, one of Europe’s largest banks, is expanding its trading offering to include six crypto-linked ETNs tied to Bitcoin and Ether for retail clients in France. The products allow investors to gain crypto exposure via securities accounts without directly holding BTC or ETH, under the MiFID II regulatory framework. The ETNs will be available from March 30, 2026, with plans to expand access to wealth management clients.

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If you’re moving $500K+ USDT in the GCC and still executing through retail exchanges —
You’re paying more than you should. Every single time.
The spread difference between retail execution and institutional OTC on a $1M block alone covers what most people think OTC costs.
I’ve spent 4 years building verified liquidity relationships across GCC markets specifically for large-block USDT execution.
No market footprint. Verified counterparties. Clean settlement.
If that’s relevant to you — DMs are open.
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