Peter Fader

I can't wait to catch a Las Vegas A's game here in the not-too-distant future!

The most fun I've ever had in a podcast interview: linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…

@ktulrich Amazing! What a privilege to meet him! A true living legend.

I ran into one of my heroes at the breakfast buffet! Donald Knuth made algorithms into a rigorous science and wrote the canonical treatise on it, and invented TeX along the way. DEK remains whip smart at 88, and very much engaged with AI developments. He was attending Gathering 4 Gardner (wizards, math, magic, and more).

Dumb guy on the Schuylkill...

Here's a must-listen for anyone interested in #CustomerLifetimeValue or #CustomerBasedCorporateValuation. Many thanks to @brett__gordon for letting Daniel McCarthy and me talk about one of our favorite papers.

In this episode of "How I Wrote This," Dan McCarthy and @Wharton's Peter Fader break down their groundbreaking JMR paper on "Customer-Based Corporate Valuation," a strategy that's already getting buzz from @HarvardBiz and Wall Street. Listen on Spotify: bit.ly/4s1M3mv

It happened again, but the third time isn't a charm...

@TheiaResearch Glad to chat -- email me...

100% true but I am at least happy to have the choice What would you recommend as a good Monte Carlo workhorse for fat tail distributions that are Lognormal? Also how do I learn from you? I am basically poking around in the dark with LLMs trying to go beyond my Introduction to Probability (Blitzstein Hwang) foundation in order to expand my toolkit for running Monte Carlos on Cursor.

Hold on! Before we give up on gamma distributions, etc., let's also consider model parsimony, robustness, comparability, and inference. The scenario described below will lead to horrendous overfitting and all kinds of associated problems. Occam's Razor still applies!

niche post but so much of undergrad probability / stochastic processes is working with distributions that subpar representations of a certain model but have quite nice analytical properties (eg Gamma) I suspect this requirement is gone with Cursor and we will focus on purely computational models that maximize fit to reality versus analytical tractability. This has probably been the norm among engineers for many years (? I suspect but am not sure) but will now become the norm across all mathematical disciplines thanks to Cursor like "Okay just sample from Lognormal 75% of the time and Pareto(a=3.5) 25% of the time and let me see what that looks like" This may be completely obvious to engineers but is a huge upgrade for those of us who studied economics / any modeling discipline pre-2020 and had to solve these things by hand and were extremely limited in the models we could build as a consequence

@TheiaResearch Hold on! Before we give up on gamma distributions, etc., let's also consider model parsimony, robustness, comparability, and inference. The scenario described above will lead to horrendous overfitting and all kinds of associated problems. Occam's Razor still applies!

Last Meal: linkedin.com/feed/update/ur… Inspired by @Petercontibrown: petercontibrown.substack.com/p/last-meal

▶️ Watch now: youtu.be/oWMpmqgYvYo @Wharton Professor @faderp, in Customer Centricity, argues that “the customer is always right” is outdated. Even giants like @Starbucks grow sustainably by focusing on the right customers, not all customers.

You know it's fall in Philly when you dive into your first bowl of french onion soup at Parc. Nothing better!

@faderp @EA @SarahEToms Thanks Peter — great to see EA’s success through the long arc of customer-centric thinking

@faderp @EA @SarahEToms At ~$50B, EA actually looks cheap: ~$93 per account or $250 per MAU. Netflix ~$975/sub, Roblox ~$288/DAU. Player relationships are still undervalued

Today's news about Electronic Arts (@EA) is a nice validation of all the ways I've been praising them for many years -- thanks to the great work started by Zachery Anderson (@Zachelicious) nearly 20 years ago. Back in 2018, when Sarah Toms (@SarahEToms) and I wrote "The Customer Centricity Playbook" (lnkd.in/eZnRU7A), we emphasized EA's long-run success, in part by showing the rise in its market value. It is instructive to see that the consistent trend shown in the book has continued since then. This is #CustomerCentricity in action. Plenty of people dislike EA, and that's OK. More importantly, there are plenty of gamers who love them. And the number of them (and the #CustomerLifetimeValue they bring) continues to increase steadily. We might not be able to see these numbers any more (as EA goes private in the largest leveraged buyout in history), but I'm confident that CEO Andrew Wilson will stay focused on his customer base as carefully and effectively as he has done for over a decade now.

Hey @AmericanAir, how come you don't do this? We need to have a talk about #CustomerCentricity... linkedin.com/posts/jasongol…

@tangotiger @fangraphs Four Phillies in top 20!

The top pitchers in WAR from @fangraphs , since the debut of Paul Skenes (2024-05-11) fangraphs.com/leaders/major-…