Fergus Cumming

Thanks to @Mirasovic and colleagues for a warm reception at @MoFmv. A fascinating meeting where @fergusac (@FCDOGovUK Deputy Chief Economist), Camilla Sugden (Deputy Head, FCDO South Asia Regional Department) and David Perkoff (FCDO South Asia Economic Analyst) learnt so much.

Great to welcome back @FCDOGovUK Deputy Chief Economist @fergusac to 🇱🇰. Productive discussions on how we can enhance our shared prosperity. The 🇬🇧 remains open for business and Sri Lanka is an important part of the UK’s growth mission.

@Claudia_Sahm So sorry to hear this. We only met once when I visited the Board but our meeting had a lasting positive effect on me. All the best for recovery.

I'm writing emails to macro guy friends/mentors about this tonight. I can't sleep. Shockingly, they aren't on social media. I have annoyed a few (yeah, bipolar me, sigh). I love having to add "please read" to the subject lines. Some won't. That's ok.

No guinea worm cases have been detected in the first three months of 2024 - worldwide! If this continues, we could soon achieve global eradication of the third disease in history. Here's how much guinea worm has declined since the 1980s. Note: log scale.

❓ What is the evidence for symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens of public health concern? #EpiTwitter 📄 Review now published in @RSocPublishing #Interface ✍️ Authors: Phoebe Asplin @RebeccaMancy Tom Finnie @fergusac @MattJKeeling @EdMHill 🔗: doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2…

Had a discussion with Dr. Fergus Cumming, Deputy Chief Economist of the Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office and HE Andrew Patrick, British High Commissioner in Sri Lanka on current economic trends, their implications, several emerging challenges and opportunities, particularly in the context of post-crisis recovery efforts. We further discussed on the IMF programme translating to outcome along with reforms going beyond the programme and the importance of staying in course with reforms. Exchanged views on strengthening tax administration practices.

Dr @fergusac Deputy Chief Economist of the FCDO met Ministers from the Economy, Trade and Finance Ministries plus economic experts from civil society & the opposition to discuss how the 🇬🇧can better support 🇽🇰economic development. Lots of potential for further collaboration here.

Happy to exchange on 🇽🇰's progress, economic potential & exciting opportunities for 🇽🇰-🇬🇧 cooperation with #FCDO D/ Chief Economist @fergusac on his first visit to 🇽🇰. Happy that 🇬🇧Foreign Sec. Cameron's visit on 3 Jan sparked new connections for promoting economic cooperation.

1/ 📢 New preprint! 📢 What is the evidence for presence/absence of symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens of public health concern? #EpiTwitter ✍️Authors: Phoebe Asplin @RebeccaMancy Tom Finnie @fergusac @MattJKeeling @EdMHill @medrxivpreprint: doi.org/10.1101/2024.0…

BU post looks at how house prices changes affect mortgage LTVs, and feed through to mortgage pricing. Explores how falling prices and rising LTV spreads might affect repayment costs. bankunderground.co.uk/2023/11/23/why…

@t0nyyates Yes please, Tony!

I have a lot of codes now thanks to kind donors, who wants to go to the other place?

Monetary policy is more effective when people take out more debt relative to their income. In the September 2023 issue, by Fergus Cumming @fergusac and Paul Hubert zurl.co/uK2s

🤔 How to ensure sustainable funding & future-ready planning in #PublicHealth? Gain insights from the expert Dr. Fergus CUMMING, Chief Economist of the @UKHSA: 👉 hubs.ly/Q021Wjjq0 @ASEF_PHN #ASEF #ASEFPHN #PHN #PublicHealthNetwork

@ChrisGiles_ My pitch for an increasingly important contribution going forward is this: academic.oup.com/restud/advance…

😬 What do people think is the cause? a) Housing market? b) Childcare? c) Who wants kids anyway? d) Other

@SMHopkins @UKHSA As the current incumbent, I can confirm this is an excellent job! If you are interested in it, I am happy to chat about it. My email is in the job advert.

Amazing oppo to join @ukhsa as Chief #Economist & leading advanced analytics. Bgd: academics, individuals with economic & analytics background working in govt, policy think tanks, working in industry. Cost effectiveness & modelling critical to all we do. healthjobsuk.com/job/v5494309

In the past, monetary policy shifts have affected places very differently. What about this time around? In a new article, @fergusac and Andrew Paterson examine the implications of rising interest rates on regional inequalities. 🔗 oecdcogito.blog/2023/02/10/are…

NEW research finds evidence for “substantial” monkeypox transmission before symptoms appear or are detected bmj.com/content/379/bm…

@UKHSA #ukhsa22 come join us in Wellington rooms for more science updates on Monkeypox

The role of vaccination and public awareness in medium-term forecasts of monkeypox incidence in the UK Paper: doi.org/10.1101/2022.0… Code: github.com/SamuelBrand1/M… Authors: @SamBrand101, @JoeBHilton, @LGuzmanRincon, @TAH_Sci, @MattJKeeling, @nokesdj #JuliaLang #EpiTwitter