Fictitious Capital

Qatar’s Prime Minister: There should be a rebuilding of trust—a trust that has unfortunately been destroyed by this aggression. We must remember that, in the end, we share the same geography. We also share a history with the Iranian people, and we do not want such hard feelings between Iranians and Qataris, or among the peoples of the region. We want our people to live in peace.

6. Been making this argument for a while that particular nation-states are more directly by-products of the post-WW2 system -- and hence these states should be highest on the list to keep an eye on. 🇵🇰🇪🇬 Israel is on top of it. It is has accelerated it's own destruction so that's pretty apparent now. For me, Pakistan & Egypt are the big ones. Two countries with large, young populations, impregnated over decades with the seeds of socialized violence, religious conflict, and false hope, all of which is going unleash an energy that will cause havoc. Egypt probably has more runway than Pakistan because of all the Arab $$ and US attention it is getting (much like Pakistan did in the 2000s), but Pakistan is fucked. The embedded nature of violence, the increasing social divisions, the exploitation of the working class & natural resources by the elite to squeeze every ounce of blood, the inherent instability of the "nation" in its very founding, geopolitical instability in its neighborhood, high ecological risk, etc. -- the list is quite long. All this was somewhat contained by the global system functioning as it was supposed to, but now with that imploding, the rug is going to be pulled very soon.

🇸🇦🇮🇷⚡️– Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud: "Today, two refineries in Riyadh were attacked. What's the purpose of that? The Iranians will have to understand that this has consequences."

I was, unfortunately, in the right ballpark: Qatar Energy just announced they may have to declare Force Majeure on long-term contracts **FOR UP TO FIVE YEARS**. As I wrote, we're deep into worst-case scenario territory.

Worst of times, best of times. Looming fertilizer shortages push the world into a new hunger crisis. But for the concentrated fertilizer market the war on Iran is an extraordinary profit opportunity. Stocks are shooting up.

Israel's gameplan is working. Soon, many of the Muslim regional states will be sucked into this war and be hammering each other black and blue.

Israel just struck South Pars in Iran, the largest natural gas field in the world… We previously told Israel not to target it. Iran is now going to respond by hitting energy facilities in the Gulf States, further alienating our allies.

If the war ends today as it is right now, it simply is a massive loss for the Gulf and there's no other way to spin this, they now live with an existential risk next door and essentially a societal repricing of all their assets as a result. Its the uneasy situation Kuwait was in as well from 1991 to 2003. But unlike Kuwait 1991, America does not come out of this war looking like a hegemonic unstoppable military machine that can keep you safe, instead it looks like a highly incompetent actor that cannot keep you safe and gets your city rained on with ballistic missiles.