FieldofOne

Theres #9 from the sheet. ✅Aaron Judge +210

@EV_Dingers I’ve been looking for a +EV dinger all day. A couple of long shots are close.

If you had a bad week of homers, we'll yeaaa I didn't start consistently making money on homers until late May, early June last year. We're dealing with a volatile market as you can see below Better days ahead evsharps.com/trends

NBA MARKET PLAY 🎯 🏀 Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs ⏰ 8:30 PM ET This move wasn’t just injury news. That’s what makes it interesting. Market originally opened Minnesota +14.5 Before any major Anthony Edwards confirmation hit, respected money already pushed this number down: +14.5 → +13.5 → +12.5 That tells me sharp money already believed the opener was inflated. Then Edwards was cleared… …and the second wave hit: +12.5 → +10/9.5 That’s the market repricing Minnesota’s true ceiling with their star active. Now add in the splits: ✅ 60% of bets on MIN spread ✅ 66% of money on MIN spread ✅ Only 19% of ML tickets on MIN ✅ But 70% of ML money on MIN That ML split is loud.👀 Small bettors are mostly staying away from the upset price while larger money is taking shots. This feels like: early sharp correction + lineup correction + respected dog money Best number is gone. But +10 is still enough cushion for me to fire. Timberwolves +10 (-110) ⭐️⭐️ Process > public narratives.

MLB PLAYS Market update ⭐⭐⭐ MIA/PHI o8.5 (-110) - line stable ⭐⭐⭐ BAL/NYY o8.5 (-106) - Now -115 ⭐⭐ CHW/LAA u7.5 (-105) - stable ⭐ LAD/HOU u9 (-109) - Now -105 #MLBPicks

MLB PLAY POST — MAY 4 Still riding medium confidence overs @ 66% for the season. Adding a low confidence under in the sweet spot running 🚨🔥 at 79% over the last week. And one market market mover. RLM signal started horribly but has won 6 of the last 7. ⭐⭐⭐ MIA/PHI o8.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐ BAL/NYY o8.5 (-106) ⭐⭐ CHW/LAA u7.5 (-105) ⭐ LAD/HOU u9 (-109)

@TheDegenWeekly Damn you got me literally trying to press the button on my screen. I think the Sixers if healthy are live to win this series but I see either 6 or 7

This line is so disrespectful. The oddsmakers are essentially saying it’s Knicks in 5. That’s crazy. A healthy Sixers team that just took down the Celtics can’t win 2 games?? I might have to take the bait here and press that O 5.5…

@FWJXiong @invisiblestats We will know pretty quickly which version of Ant we’re getting that’s for sure.

@fieldofone @invisiblestats Ant will ball hog and make those, JD, Shannon jr get less shots., those guys go back to nobodies and min will lose easily since ant will likely be 6-20 fg.

What is going on with tonight’s Wolves/Spurs game…? Wolves 24hr ago: +14.5 Wolves 8hr ago: +13.5 Wolves now: +9.5 Anthony Edwards is expected to be back, that’s what’s going on… Overreaction?

Talk about a rabbit hole. The wind at Wrigley pissed me off so bad I ended up building a HR prop model because of the bad beat.

7 of 12 lineups confirmed. Model HR Picks ✅Francisco Alvarez +400 ✅Juan Soto +210 ✅Jordan Walker +350 Best Value vs Line ✅Tyler Freeman +1100 ✅Victor Scott +1200 Disclaimer: I do not play HR props but since that’s what #bettingX seems to enjoy I’ll at least build and run a model.

Alvarez is showing +400 at one book. Our model says fair odds are +889. The book is implying 20% HR probability. We're implying 10%. One of us is wrong. We're tracking every play for 30 days to find out which. Data doesn't lie. Bookmark this 🧵, or follow @fieldofone

Today's HR Prop Board — NYM @ COL #1 Francisco Alvarez Barrel%: 20% | P Barrel%: 12.9% Park: Coors 120% | Wind: 8mph out Model implied: 10.1% Fair odds: +889 #2 Juan Soto Barrel%: 13% | P Barrel%: 12.9% Model implied: 8.0% Fair odds: +1155 Only 2 of 12 lineups confirmed yet. Full board posts as lineups come in.

Wind blowing out at Wrigley at 32mph killed my Under last week. Two outs. Two strikes. Bottom of the 9th. Walk-off two-run bomb directly into the wind. One pitch from a win. I already track market signals and model projections for every game. But weather? I was checking it manually. Too late. Too slow. So I automated it. And once I had automated weather for every stadium at game time... I realized I had everything I needed to build a HR props model. Barrel rate × Pitcher vulnerability × Park factor × Wind. Built it in 2 hours. Here's exactly how 🧵

MLB Totals Model Results - May 3

1030am Sharp Signals update. Sharps fading the wind at Wrigley again.

SHARP MONEY UPDATE 📊 Our RLM signal tracker through May 3: Early season (Apr 30 - May 1): 1W-5L — rough start Last 8 days (May 2-3): 6W-1L (85.7%) 🔥 What changed? The scoring environment normalized and the signal found its footing. Sharp money moves lines for a reason. We track it every morning. Full slate analysis @fieldofone