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What if Ukraine breaks before the front does? The standoff in Kyiv and the shock from Iran are converging to push the war into a more dangerous phase, one with growing consequences for Europe and the global economy. open.substack.com/pub/finformant…

Drones, Brinkmanship, and a War Without Compromise A grinding conflict defined by drones, budgets, and politics —with both Ukraine and Russia converging into militarized, authoritarian systems that could outlast the battlefield. Read the full finformant finformant.com/p/drones-brink…

Kyiv Reels as Air Defences Strain Moscow's strategy is clear: attrition plus winter grid pressure to force concessions. Near-term peace prospects are fading as battlefield leverage and urban terror are outpacing diplomacy. 1/2

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… multi-year consolidation-and-growth mix. Expect issuance tactics (maturity mix, syndication use), BoE QT pace, and November’s fiscal arithmetic to drive whether 30-year yields settle back—or entrench near late‑1990s levels. 2/3

Markets Fret Over UK Fiscal Situation The UK’s challenge is less about market access and more about price and credibility: elevated term premia and heavy net supply will keep long yields sticky unless policy signals deliver a clearer, ... 1/3

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Expect the West to double down on air defense, electronic warfare resilience, and grid support for Ukraine after the GPS incident. Modest Russian battlefield gains keep the odds of peace slim unless front-line pressure permanently abates. 2/3

Xi, Putin, Modi Pitch a New Order Breaking the tight Russia-China-India triangle with tariff and sanctions pressure alone will be a slow process and may prove counterproductive, especially if it pushes India to hedge harder. 1/3

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Even worse, once those positions are vacated, Russia could easily provoke a new escalation, advance deep into Ukraine in a renewed blitz, and reclaim the very territories supposedly "traded for peace." 3/3

Kyiv Under Fire, Diplomacy at Risk Portraying Zelenskyy as illegitimate allows Moscow to shift the blame if talks fail. Meanwhile, a shift in public opinion in Europe further erodes Kyiv's leverage. Economically, a winter grid war will sap Ukraine's output and morale. 1/3

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While there are some signs of a weakening US economy, markets may be ahead of themselves expecting Powell to be dovish tomorrow. It seems more likely that he takes his chances to get into history books by pushing back against the pressure applied on him.

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Talks Without Teeth: Russia Buys Time, Ukraine Bleeds finformant view The day produced headlines, not solutions. This was a big PR stunt, and not a triumph for Zelenskyy, who did not want to agree to give up any territory, especially unoccupied areas. 1/3

The root causes of the war remain unaddressed. For Europe and the markets, that means lingering uncertainty. 3/3

Given Russia's responses, they are just buying time and will continue the war. However, Putin is getting closer to ensuring that Trump will blame Zelenskyy for the failure. 2/3

Kyiv faces stark domestic constraints—constitutional red lines and public resolve—while negotiating under fire. Much depends on today's meeting, but the war will almost certainly continue. 13/13

finformant view Putin is ahead on points: he avoided new sanctions, convinced the US to accept his approach, and maintained battlefield momentum as leverage. 12/13

After Alaska: Putin Sets the Terms, Kyiv Braces After Alaska, Trump drops his ceasefire demand and echoes Putin's "deal first" line; no new US sanctions. 1/13