Chris Fitzpatrick
3.9K posts
We launched Amy Poehler’s new video podcast for @ringer today - two episodes with Tina Fey and Martin Short. It’s a good hang! You can watch/listen on @Spotify.
open.spotify.com/show/1z20EiwuK…
English
@gelliottmorris How do you not have a running forecast still? Like what could possibly be the justification at this point?
English
About Kennedy dropping out: Our polling average model looks at the difference in polls that do and do not include him as an option. In this adjustment RFK takes 1.3 points from Harris and 1.5 from Trump. RFK dropout net effect is small — reduces Harris’s margin from +3.3 to +3.1
English
@BrendanBuck @NateSilver538 Does 1. actually work if you see who’s been nominated lately? It half feels like people get nominated so that opposition would be afraid to impeach if it led to VP getting the main job…
English
For a VP pick, here are the considerations I think matter, in order of most important, on a ten point total scale:
1.Experience/competence to be president (4 pts)
2.Ability to articulate a message during campaign (3)
3.Complimentary vibe (2)
4.Helpful geography (1)
English
@hobie_tweets Grandchildren count treble. Religious patriarchs just coming in with 200 votes a clip.
English
He’s not framing it that way bc he’s not thinking about retirees at all
Steven Godofsky@sgodofsk
Actually this is a good idea and I like it. Frame it a little differently: people with dependents get additional votes. He's framing this as an attack on the childless but actually what it does is dilute the retiree vote.
English
@What46HasDone Wasn’t he…. Right this whole time? And regardless, who does it better? Would like to follow…
English
@What46HasDone So basically deleting the account. Godspeed, person.
English
@fitzlax23 Making Kamala prez and having her go thru all the administrative tasks in setting up her govt and run the country instead of solely focusing on campaigning seems like a bad idea?
English
The issue with @NateSilver538 is he’s a compiler of polls, a clerk. He has no fundamental basis in history and elections. If we bounced presidents based on perceived physical ailments we would have bounced FDR, Reagan, and JFK.
Nate Silver@NateSilver538
None of the 13 keys is that the president is unable to reliably complete a sentence, but that seems salient to diagnosing his chances for reelection.
English
@NateSilver538 How about RESIGN THE PRESIDENCY AND MAKE KAMALA THE INCUMBENT. Nothing would make her a stronger candidate. Nothing.
English
This is totally incoherent. If Team Biden is worried that someone other than Harris would be nominated, they should just endorse Harris, in which case she'd almost certainly win since they have 99% of convention delegates.
.@GregTSargent
Former senior Biden official makes an interesting point to me, worth thinking about: At this point, suspicion that the remove-Biden camp wants to also pass over Kamala Harris has itself become a big obstacle to getting Biden to step aside:
English
@What46HasDone @NateSilver538 Isn’t this just unproductive? I love your account. I follow it. Biden does have a great resume and people weren’t respecting that. But voters are telling us they don’t think he can do the job because of how he’s aging. That’s it. It’s not anything Biden did wrong. It just is.
English
This is a pretty incoherent answer including a non-sequitur complaing about a New York Times poll, which he incorrectly claims had him down 10 points before the debate (it was actually 3 or 4 points, depending on which version you look at).
umichvoter@umichvoter
Forgive me for who I'm getting this clip from, it's the first one I found. But what happens to his voice when everytime he's on TV
English
@joshtpm There’s no truth to this. Harris was chosen by Biden to be on the ticket. In modern American politics the vp is completely an afterthought, and voters understand the pick to be a way to target swing voters and turn out
English
4/ Harris was chosen by the American people to take over for president if he can’t serve. Millions of Democrats just voted de facto to nominate her again as veep. It is more than just a poli sci problem to say, welp those votes don’t matter we’re going to do something totally …
English
I think Jon’s argument here is to a degree a straw man. He says at the bottom that the half dozen or so stakeholders in this conversation need to pick the best candidate. And if it’s Harris, he says, great, off to the races. His argument here seems to be…
Jonathan Chait@jonathanchait
How (and why) to pick a new Democratic nominee fast nymag.com/intelligencer/…
English
@JoanieVee1 But the premise here is so bizarre. We aren’t comparing him to his peers. To average 82 year olds. We’re judging his fitness for the toughest job in the world. The 95th percentile 82 year old might not be up to the task?
English
Weighing in on Biden’s fitness as someone that works w families of & cognitively impaired clients w a related social-work background:
Biden is not “cognitively impaired” beyond what is across board typical w his age.
Thread:
English
A recent article for @HeavyOnSports suggests that in order to get Lauri Markkanen, the Knicks would need to trade Julius Randle with 5 or 6 first round picks attached.
Absolutely insanity.
English
@hobie_tweets Oh sorry it’s Vikes first. Their o/u is 6.5 wins next year. More variance, but still a top… 8 pick? Less straightforward but if pats are full tank, an extra pick helps
English
@fitzlax23 Wait the Pats aren’t giving up their pick they would be getting our pick or the Vikings in this example
English