Flavia Krause-Jackson

I write in @FT that Iran is playing the long game. In war, geography matters as much as technology. Iran commands the entire northern shore of the Gulf, looming large over energy fields on its southern shore and all that passes through its waters. Its Houthi allies are perched at the entrance to the Red Sea and along the passage to the Suez Canal; Iran is thus perfectly positioned to squeeze the global economy from both sides of the Arabian Peninsula. Those in command of Iran today are veterans of asymmetric wars in Iraq and Syria. They are now applying the same strategy to fighting the US on the battlefield of the global economy. Drones, short-range missiles and mines setting tankers and ports on fire can have the same effect IEDs had in Iraq, only with greater impact — disrupting global supply chains and sending oil prices higher. Iran could sustain its counteroffensive more easily and for far longer. Furthermore, a ceasefire alone will not lift the shadow of risk that Iran has imposed over the Gulf, which is now experiencing its nightmare scenario. That is why Iranian leaders are saying they will not accept a ceasefire until Washington fully grasps the global economic cost of waging this war. Businesses, investors and tourists may not return to the Gulf states if they assume that war could resume again. Unless the US is prepared to invade Iran to remove the Islamic republic’s leaders and then stay there to ensure stability and security, confidence in the Gulf will only return if the US and Iran arrive at a durable ceasefire. Iran says it will only accept a ceasefire with international guarantees for its sovereignty, which would probably mean a direct role for Russia and China. It may also demand compensation for war damages and a verifiable ceasefire in Lebanon. The US would then have to agree to some form of the nuclear deal it left on the table in Geneva in February and commit to lifting sanctions. Iran’s leaders entered this war with the goal of ensuring it will be the last one. Either it breaks them or radically changes the country’s circumstances. They are betting on surviving long enough and squeezing the global economy hard enough to realise that goal. Read full article ft.com/content/93b7b6…

Scoop: The UK is seeking to determine whether Trump has the power to derail its Chagos Deal amid fears that he intends to block it Some in government say that if the US does withdraw its support, it would likely be enough to unravel the agreement bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Russia Ramped Up Civilian Killings in Ukraine Amid Trump’s Peace Push >>>

An inspiring read from the wonderful @rosmathieson about the art of letting go and holding on. #fridgemagnets bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

SCOOP: the Green Party is climbing in UK polls, and has been criticised for not “getting” the economy. Now a Green-linked think tank is launching to help them create policy that’s radical, but still makes sense to the mainstream. Story: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

I'm helping launch a new think tank - aligned with the Greens but independent of them, helping do the preparatory work for a transformative programme and government ahead of the next election. Bloomberg have the story...

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK raked in more donations that any other British political party in the third quarter bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Exclusive: Recent intelligence assessments show Vladimir Putin still has no intention of reaching a peace deal with Ukraine, former MI6 chief Richard Moore says. “Under current conditions — I’m basing this on access I had a few weeks ago to our understanding of the intelligence — he’s not ready to do a deal,” Moore tells Bloomberg’s @MishalHusain. “For me, the answer to that is he needs to be put under more pressure, so he is prepared to do a deal.” “It’s our responsibility to convey exactly what the intelligence is telling us,” Moore said. “It’s telling us, for example, that Putin has no intention of doing a deal, that this is not an issue for him purely of territory, this is about dominating and turning Ukraine into something that looks rather like its neighbour, Belarus.”  Moore said he saw an “evolution of thinking” about Putin in Trump’s administration. “Clearly Putin is trying to play us. He’s an intelligence officer. I recognise the type. He’s trying to manoeuvre us into a place which is convenient for him, and we need to pin him down and not allow him that manoeuvrability.” The ex-spy chief says Xi Jinping is watching Ukraine. “There’s a real danger that if he sees us being weak on Ukraine, then he will draw conclusions on his own behaviors around the South China Sea, and potentially on Taiwan.” This is how Moore says the West must help Ukraine now: “More pressure on the battlefield. Ukrainians have an under-capitalised defence industry. They have spare capacity that cash would solve,” he said. “There is more that we can give them in terms of permission to use long-range weaponry, for example, as well as giving them the basics of air defence. And there’s an opportunity to put a lot more pressure on Putin at home. “I don’t pretend that is going to give immediate results. We have to be patient. We have to be prepared to see this off,” he added. “I’ve talked about the seminal importance of this for the Western alliance — that we do not lose this contest of wills.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

From Morocco to Indonesia, young people are taking to the streets to protest against inequality and a lack of jobs. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

"Everyone says I should get the Nobel Peace Prize," Donald Trump told the UN last week. Will the Norwegians on the receiving end of his brash lobbying agree? bloomberg.com/news/features/…

Mexico’s first woman president has turned AMLO's mañanera - her predecessor’s signature press event - into her own bloomberg.com/news/features/…

Wes Streeting calls for Angela Rayner to return to government “We want her back. We need her back” Some more interesting messaging to the Labour grassroots after recent comments on Trump, Gaza, and so on

Migrants fearing Trump’s deportations are rushing to send money home, sparking a remittance boom bloomberg.com/news/features/…

Germany’s chancellor is trying to tug power back to Berlin — and keep it from accumulating in Brussels bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Before her sudden resignation, Angela Rayner was a top contender to succeed Keir Starmer as Labour leader. In Liverpool, she's missed. "We want her back." Watch this space. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

NEW with @EllenAMilligan Keir Starmer’s cabinet is completely divided on Tony Blair’s proposed role in Gaza Cabinet ministers and aides tell Bloomberg it’s unwise and potentially badly damaging to Starmer at the next election if it goes wrong, tying his govt to the fate of the plan and a former PM who is unpopular in Britain One compares it to the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, warning that Blair’s private interests will now face extra scrutiny However senior Blairites in govt are in favour and pushing the plan, touting Blair’s Arab and Trumpworld links and his record on Northern Ireland and Kosovo But @SarahChampionMP says: “Tony Blair has history in the Middle East and that means he does not come to the table in a neutral role, but with baggage. It should be up to the Palestinian people to decide if that makes him a good or bad advocate.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

What will UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer do at his annual party conference speech to reverse his own political fortunes? On Tuesday, Labour members hope the big reveal will be generous handouts to parents. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

NEW: Rachel Reeves tells Bloomberg she will not raise the headline rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT at the budget She recommits to the manifesto on the big three and corporation tax as well Dispels speculation this week Also rules out wealth tax To @lizzzburden

What Was Behind David Bowie’s Genius? His Archive Holds the Answers. nytimes.com/interactive/20…