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Forced Alpha
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Forced Alpha
@forced_alpha
Mapping the chokepoints behind the chokepoint. Supply chain intelligence that finds mispriced assets before the market connects the dots.
Katılım Şubat 2026
96 Takip Edilen780 Takipçiler
@pepemoonboy The demand for non china supply chain magnets is about to go nuts. Defense regs change Jan 1st, they'll probs get a time exemption but supply chains still need to move. It's not just robots, its defense + ai + robotics + quantum. MP is indeed the best positioned re reshoring.
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$MP is one of the strongest U.S. pure plays on rare earth magnets.
Rare earth magnets are a key component in humanoid robots because they power the high performance actuators needed for precise movement.
If humanoids scale globally over the next decade, demand for these materials could explode.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Who could have thought China was holding all the cards over humanoid mass production? Really if America sees a future in $TSLA or Figure robotics programs. Maybe it’s time to start pouring more funding sovereign rare earths supply chains. Whatever we’re doing now isnt enough.
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@CommodMkt Yup. Physics doesn't shift reg of capital. Mag 7 capex wave routes into a short list of choke nodes for physical infra. Grain oriented electrical steel, natural gas + LNG, large frame gas turbines, and high voltage transformers. The Munificent 7 are whoever sits on those nodes.
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Everybody talks about the Magnificent 7, but my focus is on the “Munificent 7”. Who are they?
They are oil companies and asset-heavy businesses generating real free cash flow yields in an AI sector that is trying to achieve breakout despite increasing constraints by energy, materials and physical scarcity.
Those oil company yields are 15.5%, whereas the AI hyperscalers are 0%. Read that back again.
The Munificent 7 are named that for a reason.
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@aleabitoreddit We have no choice. China made decisions 20 years ago for which they're collecting the dividends. Processing magnets won't be done at any kind of scale until 2027 in the US and still the gap is way too big for the 3 pronged demand of robotics, defense and AI.
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Who could have thought China was holding all the cards over humanoid mass production?
Really if America sees a future in $TSLA or Figure robotics programs.
Maybe it’s time to start pouring more funding sovereign rare earths supply chains.
Whatever we’re doing now isnt enough.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
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China has made moves 10-20 years ago that are paying dividends now. Countries are slowly coming to the right consensus that this needs to stop. The problem is without huge capital allocation, tacit knowledge of processes, understanding qualification timelines all of this is dead in the water. China has already planned for the fact the countries would wake up and kick them out. It’s just plan 2 of 100 now.
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🇦🇺 Australia is finally waking up and reclaiming its strategic assets from Beijing's grip.
Giving up sovereignty over critical minerals that underpin modern defense, semiconductors, and high-tech supply chains was one of the dumbest self-sabotaging moves ever.
Especially for a country that was whacked with unprecedented trade and tariff retaliations during covid simply for calling for an independent investigation into covid origins.
The pattern is clear: from Trump pressuring Panama to roll back Chinese ownership over canal ports by forcing divestment to a US company, to allies now securing the critical minerals supply chain.
The era of naively handing leverage to the CCP is over.
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Finance moves fast, matter moves slow. But operator knowledge embedded in highly skilled labour driven quasi monopolies move the slowest. You can tax credit the supply chain development but not the decades of knowledge needed to operate it. The knowledge gap is tacit. The operator who hears a failing pump through the floor. That was never written down, so there’s nothing to train on. It’s dying with the people, not sitting in a dataset. It’s an under appreciated labor moat AI cannot overwrite so easily.
🇦🇺Craig Tindale@ctindale
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The price action only looks confusing if you’re treating MP like a commodity miner. US and allied defense magnet demand alone is already 3–4k tons a year against ~1.8–2k tons of total Western NdFeB capacity. Defense by itself is 55–65% over the entire Western supply, before robotics and EVs even start pulling from the same pool.
The crux of it is that the bottleneck isn’t the magnet plants, it’s NdPr separation upstream. Every US magnet maker depends on Western separated feedstock, and that’s the step still concentrated in China.
You can build all the plants you want, they don’t move the needle until separation scales. The market is pricing a commodity cyclical. But what’s actually there is one structurally short node with three demand curves stacking on it.
We map this whole chain end to end. The above is just a extract from our graph.
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Demand for rare earths will at least double over the next 5 years… it might even triple… in my base case $MP is doing at least $1B+ of EBIT in 2030… with a reasonable shot at $1.4B+
Split the difference and this could easily be a $30B company in the next 4-5 years.
Recent price action is confusing to me especially since US based rare earth companies are a hedge against China banning exports not to mention the US government has a big stake and we saw how that worked out for $INTC.
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Today’s news is far bigger than most people realize. The United States doesn’t even have enough domestic magnet capacity for defense contractors… let alone the broader commercial market. $MP $USAR $ALOY
Starting January 1, 2027, Chinese-sourced magnets will effectively be banned for U.S. defense supply chains, and contractors know there simply isn’t enough domestic supply to fill the gap. They’re already pushing the government to extend the deadline. This isn’t something that can just be reversed overnight with an executive order.
Meanwhile, the few companies actually trying to solve this problem have been absolutely crushed in the market.
Make it make sense.
cek@cekdrew
Defense Groups are Panicking About the Chinese Jan 1st 2027 Magnet Ban $MP $USAR $ALOY $AREC Defense companies are pushing Washington to delay a deadline, years in the making and now just months away, banning them from sourcing rare earth magnets from China for the US military. Some defense groups want more time to comply with the prohibition on using Chinese samarium cobalt magnets and neodymium iron boron magnets for defence department contracts from January 1, according to four people familiar with the matter. “Unless significantly more capacity comes online, adhering to the 2027 ban may not be feasible.” ft.com/content/4d6651…
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2027 is when DoD qualified ex-China magnet feedstock first flows at meaningful scale via MP Materials. The hard deadline (DFARS ban) is Jan 1, 2027, so primes are essentially racing to that date with near zero margin. Lynas is also a 2027-2028 story. Expecting waiver requests to bridge the gap. Nuts that this has been a clear problem and yet nothing.
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Totally predictable and a case study in what happens when you sit on your hands for 20 years. Would be interesting to know when the defence companies think they'll be ready to source ex-China magnet feedstock. (Hint: further away thank you think). ft.com/content/4d6651… via @ft
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@Reuters Supply chains are weapons wielded at will and with second order effects that ripple across the world. In this case $55tn of market exposure.
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Forced Alpha@forced_alpha
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White House gets small rare earth win, but China's export regime is here to stay reut.rs/4dAxuQr reut.rs/4dAxuQr
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This should make people uncomfortable.
For years, Washington has known Chinese rare earth magnets were buried inside US defence supply chains. Congress gave the industry a deadline. Now the deadline is close, and contractors are asking for more time. Not because the policy is unclear. But because the physical world is difficult to solve for. Yes. You can ban a supplier with a sentence. But you cannot replace the qualified material inside a missile, fighter jet or targeting system in one swipe of a pen. That’s the whole game. Tick tock.
FT China@ftchina
Defence groups clamour to delay US ban on Chinese rare earth magnets ft.trib.al/TcsNqOE
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China Data Centers Tap Spot Power Trading First Time
The arrangement can cut power costs and generate new revenue for data centers, while highlighting their potential role as flexible assets in China’s evolving power system.
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Changing focus is the issue. The hard part is not geology. It’s alignment. China can coordinate capital, permits, infrastructure, customers, and industrial policy over decades.
The west doesn’t move as fast as it cannot. It needs to rebuild the coordination layer for strategic supply chains.Thats the painful part tbh. It takes time. A lot of time we don’t have.
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@forced_alpha @Gaurab So let the West change focus, they should get intentional on improving their metallurgical prowess that can help in ramping up production of these critical elements and rare earths. Accusing China of IP theft and helping Israel to attack perceived enemies should stop
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China builds 120 J-20 stealth fighters a year. Every one needs rhenium-bearing superalloy blades. Beijing is quietly removing the rhenium constraint that has historically capped every modern air force. In 2023, China overtook the US as Chile's largest rhenium buyer. In 2024, domestic production quadrupled from 5.3 to 20 tonnes and held steady since. WS-15 serial production hit the J-20A line in December 2025. The domestic ramp came from roaster retrofits and new recovery equipment at Jiangxi Copper, China Molybdenum, and Zijin Mining. Beijing stockpiles rhenium at about 10 tonnes a year, a surge buffer for combat attrition. The same metallurgy feeds the J-20, J-35, CJ-1000A, gas turbines for grid power, and Pt-Re refinery catalysts. Every tonne Beijing locks in is one fewer for an F135 blade at Pratt & Whitney, an F414 stage at GE, or a Trent XWB rotor at Rolls-Royce. By 2030, China's fifth-generation fighter fleet will outnumber the US Air Force's F-22 and F-35A combined. The rhenium constraint isn't going away. It's becoming binding only on the West.
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Rare earths in a US China deal sounds like a conversation with progress. It isn't. The fact sheet uses "address supply chain concerns", the diplomatic equivalent of "we'll look into it." The critical minerals clause is BS. China holds the ace and we’re sitting with a 1.
Annmarie Hordern@annmarie
White House Fact Sheet on Trump-Xi meeting: * US and China “should build a constructive relationship of strategic stability on the basis of fairness and reciprocity” * Both agreed “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, called to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and agreed that no country or organization can be allowed to charge tolls.” * Confirmed their “shared goal to denuclearize North Korea.” * “China will address U.S. concerns regarding supply chain shortages related to rare earths and other critical minerals, including yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and indium.” * “China approved an initial purchase of 200 American-made Boeing aircraft for Chinese airlines.” * “China will purchase at least $17 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products in 2026 (prorated), 2027, and 2028, in addition to the soybean purchase commitments that it made in October 2025.” * “China restored market access for U.S. beef by renewing expired listings of more than 400 U.S. beef facilities and adding new listings.” whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/20…
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$10tn is probably the floor, not the ceiling.That figure captures the first order shock. The harder part is the second and third order damage. Broken AI supply chains, stranded capex, lost compute revenue, failed ROI on data center buildouts, and forced deleveraging. It’s imperative to consider that every balance sheet is priced on uninterrupted Taiwan capacity.
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A war in the Taiwan Strait would cost the global economy $10 trillion — which gives everyone skin in the game.
Andreas Fulda 🇺🇦 🇹🇼@AMFChina
According to Bloomberg Economics a war in the Taiwan Strait would cost an astronomical 10 trillion US$ in the first year alone [1]. It is in our collective security interest to prevent this world-shattering scenario. For credible deterrence we need to help Taiwan defend itself.
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@kyleichan They should and they’re not. We’ve taken the baton instead and map global supply chains via graphs. Queryable with natural language.
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The US should establish a supply chain risk monitoring mechanism like this from China’s new supply chain security rule:
“Article 9: The state shall establish and improve a monitoring and early warning system for security risks to industrial chains and supply chains in critical sectors. Relevant departments under the State Council shall organize assessments and monitoring of the stability of supply channels for raw materials, technologies, equipment, products, and other inputs in critical sectors, as well as their impact on economic and social stability and national security. They shall identify security risks to industrial chains and supply chains and promptly issue early warning information.
Enterprises, industry associations, chambers of commerce, and other entities that discover situations affecting the security of industrial chains and supply chains may report them to the relevant departments of people’s governments at or above the county level.”
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@FurkanGozukara Supply chains are weapons with trillions of exposure
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Forced Alpha@forced_alpha
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The Pentagon is in absolute panic. Famous Prof. Zhang Weiwei confirms China has officially cut off all rare earth exports to the US military.
He exposes how Washington's disastrous tech war completely backfired, leaving their weapons manufacturing severely crippled.
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When you plan in decades your outcomes are vastly different to those that plan in presidential cycles. It’s clear that supply chains have been weaponized for strategic control.
Chinese AI chip self sufficiency is not just about replacing Nvidia. It is about controlling the full stack beneath compute: power, materials, fabs, equipment, grid flexibility and policy.
All while we’re stuck like a deer in headlights debating policy.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
China is reducing its reliance on foreign AI chips: China's AI chip self-sufficiency ratio is up to a record 41%. This measures the proportion of domestic AI chip demand met by locally produced chips, rather than imported ones. This ratio has QUADRUPLED over the last 5 years. The AI chip self-sufficiency ratio is now projected to more than DOUBLE to ~85% by 2030, according to Morgan Stanley. In other words, China could meet nearly all of its own AI chip demand domestically within 5 years. China's AI chip independence is accelerating.
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