forrest nelson

Do you want the good news or the bad news first about Caleb Williams? First the good news… All 6 of the teams Williams has beaten this season have losing records: Cowboys 3-5-1 Raiders 2-7 Commanders 3-7 Saints 2-8 Bengals 3-6 Giants 2-8 Williams has defeated mostly the worst NFL ranked defenses (Fox Sports): No. 31 Cowboys No. 15 Raiders No. 30 Commanders No. 13 Saints No. 32 Bengals No. 29 Giants Two out of three of Williams losses this season have been against top-12 defenses (Fox Sports): • L No. 7 Lions (6-3) • L No. 12 Vikings (4-5) • L No. 26 Ravens (4-5) Notice a trend? All 6 of Williams’ wins this season have come against teams with losing records and mostly against teams with the worst defenses. Now the bad news… • Williams was 2-7 against top-25 teams at USC. • Williams is 2-9 against NFL teams with winning records in the NFL. Notice a trend? Williams tends to lose against good teams. The only two teams with winning records Williams has ever beaten in his NFL career were in 2024: Rams (10-7) and the Packers (11-6). Bears remaining 2025 schedule: Vikings (4-5) Steelers (5-4) Eagles (7-2) Packers (5-3-1) Browns (2-7) Packers (5-3-1) 49ers (6-4) Lions (6-3) 6/8 of of the Bears remaining games are against teams with winning records. Fox Sports Defensive Rankings of remaining teams on the Bears schedule: Vikings: (No. 12) Steelers: (No. 28) Eagles: (No. 18) Packers: (No. 5) Browns: (No. 2) Packers: (No. 5) 49ers: (No. 21) Lions: (No. 7) 5/8 of of the Bears remaining games are against top-12 NFL Defenses. The defenses Williams defeated in 2024 for his 5 wins that season (Fox Sports): Titans (No. 2), Rams (No. 26), Panthers (No. 32), Jaguars (No. 31), and Packers (No. 5). Only two of those teams had good defenses. Williams has only defeated 2 top-12 NFL Defenses in his entire NFL career. Conclusion: If history holds true looking at the Bears remaining schedule and defense rankings of those opponents—chances are, Caleb Williams and the Bears (6-3) win one —maybe two more games this season. Maybe—maybe not —they beat the Vikings (lost to them once already this season and they have the No. 12 defense), and maybe —maybe not —beat the Browns, because the Browns have the No. 2 defense. That will be a tough game. The Bears defeated the Titans (No. 2 defense in 2024) 24-17. I predicted the Bears would go 7-10 back on May 14: x.com/firstroundmock… Please don’t mistake Caleb Williams beating up on bad teams in college and the NFL for him being “good” like they are desperately trying to sell you on —truth be told —he hasn’t done well against the good teams. That doesn’t bode well for Williams from here on out in 2025. Current Fox (2024-2025) NFL Defensive Rankings: x.com/firstroundmock… Photo Credit: Getty Images

#OTD in 2021, Leury Legend delivered.