Five Putt Cap

Fu$k he's right, isn't he... tonyisola.com/2023/06/the-be…

@PauloMacro Wellington 😂😂😂

@Investor_NICK_ Great thesis for Feb 2024

$LULU bear thesis summed up in one pic …

Guys did we accidentally elect a complete retard

@kiantrades Dear Lord is retail still BTFD in Growth names?

Not to put you down or anything but what the fuck

@TheStalwart @JavierBlas 1973 Yom Kippur War, bruh Embargo covering 5% of global production drove oil from $3 to $5 in October 73 Then statis. Not until Jan 74 did oil spike to $11+

Every normie feels in their gut that oil should go higher. And every oil expert seems to think that every day we get closer to the true disaster scenario. So why is it that oil is not only below the highs of the month, but, as @JavierBlas pointed out, far below the 2022 highs?

@MemesNoWords @KobeissiLetter 6 ships sailed through yesterday, Hoss.

@KobeissiLetter Strait of Hormuz is open for everyone, except Trump and Netanyahu

BREAKING: Oman's oil prices extend losses to -46% from their peak, now down -$80/barrel in just 9 days. Markets are pricing-in an end to the Iran War.

@WorldBriefWire @CryptoNobler Yes I'm sure she'll get right on it.

@CryptoNobler If a trader has a “100% win rate,” drops a $25M oil short right before a major announcement, and people are supposed to call that just “good instincts,” then sure… and rain is dry. If this is real, it does not look like genius. It looks like a question for investigators.

🚨 BREAKING TRUMP INSIDER WITH 100% WIN RATE JUST OPENED A $25,000,000 OIL SHORT AHEAD OF TRUMP’S EMERGENCY ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY. THIS GUY MADE $127 MILLION IN 5 TRADES AND JUST WENT ALL-IN ONCE AGAIN. HE CLEARLY KNOWS SOME BIG NEWS IS COMING TODAY…

@shanaka86 BREAKING: In the last 48 hours…. 😂😂

BREAKING: In the last 48 hours, six things happened that cannot all be true at the same time. And all of them are. One. Trump told the press that Iranian officials “want a deal so badly.” Two. The US sent Iran a 15-point plan via Pakistani intermediaries demanding zero uranium enrichment, surrender of 450 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, decommissioning of Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, a five-year missile halt, proxy cuts, and Hormuz reopening. Three. An unnamed Iranian source told CNN there has been “outreach” and Tehran is willing to listen to “sustainable” proposals. Four. Foreign Minister Araghchi called the war a “grave and unprecedented breach of international law,” denied any talks, ceasefire, or contact of any kind, calling reports “fake news designed to manipulate oil and financial markets.” Five. The IDF assassinated IRGC Quds Force operative Kourani in a naval strike off Beirut. Six. Israeli media reported the US is pushing for a one-month ceasefire while Netanyahu expressed concern Trump might accept a deal that falls short of Israeli objectives. Six signals. Six directions. One 48-hour window. The 15-point plan demands zero enrichment. Iran’s position, stated by Araghchi and Ghalibaf in identical language across every official channel, is that enrichment is an “inalienable right” under NPT Article IV and “can never” be surrendered. These are not positions that meet. Zero enrichment versus inalienable right is not a negotiation gap. It is a theological divide dressed in legal language. The NPT says “inalienable right to peaceful nuclear energy in conformity with Articles I and II.” Iran reads the first clause. The US reads the second. Both are citing the same sentence. Neither is wrong about what it says. Both are wrong about what it means to the other side. The market reacted to the headlines, not the substance. WTI dropped to $88.13 on “deal” news, a 10 percent collapse driven by algorithms reading “ceasefire” and “agreed to key points.” The 10-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.33. Energy traders eased shorts. Gold paused. And then Araghchi went on television and denied everything, Kourani was assassinated, and the IRGC issued a “complete victory” statement from a relocated headquarters. The relief rally was priced on words. The war continued on physics. Iran is running five communication channels simultaneously. The FM denial is for domestic audiences. The Ghalibaf threat is for bond markets. The Araghchi backchannel is for Washington. The IRGC propaganda is for the base. The CNN source is for the global audience. Each contradicts the others. All are true. Iran is denying talks AND conducting outreach. Threatening escalation AND signalling openness. Claiming victory AND admitting the pressure warrants listening. The contradiction is not confusion. It is the strategy of a regime managing five narratives for five audiences while 88 million people sit in blackouts and the toll booth collects yuan. Behind the noise, Saudi Arabia watches. MBS told CBS in 2018 and Fox in 2023 that if Iran develops a nuclear weapon, “we will follow suit as soon as possible.” The US-Saudi 123 agreement signed November 2025 allows Saudi domestic enrichment without mandatory IAEA Additional Protocol. The infrastructure for a regional arms race is being assembled in legal documents while the 15-point plan demands Iran surrender the programme that would trigger it. The pause expires Saturday. The plan demands zero. Iran demands inalienable. The mediators are skeptical. The assassination continues. And the three clocks, nitrogen, yields, yuan, do not read 15-point plans. They tick. Full deep dive analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@jbulltard1 Thought you were a Perplexity (!) guy.

you guys on claude's nuts today are seriously late x.com/jbulltard1/sta…

@DaleAmericaQQQ @jbulltard1 Um, bud? CEO owns 7 million out of 200 million shares.

@jbulltard1 He owns half the company himself lol. $140m is a rounding error to him

I don't know what the $TTD CEO saw laying out $140m recently but this is the biggest pile of shit in the market, its like a doom loop of bad news

@moseskagan @pratjoey Epic case study in the worship of the almighty dollar right here

@pratjoey I can tell from these comments!

For the love of G-d, sell!

@shanaka86 BREAKING 😂

BREAKING: The nitrogen trap just closed. Three locks snapped shut simultaneously. The planting window is closing behind them. And the food the world eats next year is now being decided by molecules that cannot reach the soil in time. Lock one: the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC permissioned corridor allows oil tankers from friendly nations to pay $2 million in yuan and pass. It does not allow fertiliser vessels to pass at any price. Zero approved fertiliser transits in 24 days. The Gulf supplies 49 percent of the world’s exported urea and roughly 30 percent of traded ammonia. That supply is not delayed. It is denied. The gate opens for molecules that fund the gatekeeper. It stays closed for molecules that feed the planet. Lock two: Russia. The world’s largest exporter of ammonium nitrate just halted all AN exports until after April 21. Three to four million tonnes per year, gone from global markets at the exact moment the Northern Hemisphere needs it most. The official reason is “domestic priority.” The strategic effect is leverage. Russia earns windfall revenue from the oil price spike its ally’s war created, then removes the fertiliser that farmers need to plant through the crisis. The disease and the cure, again, from the same address. Lock three: China. Beijing has banned exports of nitrogen-potassium blends and phosphate fertilisers through August 2026. China is the world’s largest phosphate producer and a major nitrogen supplier. The ban removes the last alternative source that could have compensated for Hormuz and Russia. Three locks. Three countries. Three deliberate decisions timed to the same biological calendar. The biological calendar does not negotiate. Corn requires nitrogen at the V6 to VT growth stage or kernel set is permanently reduced. Wheat requires it at tillering and jointing or grain fill collapses. Rice requires it at transplanting or yield drops 20 to 40 percent in low-input systems. These are not economic models. They are cellular processes. The plant either receives nitrogen during the window or it does not. If it does not, no subsequent application, no price increase, no policy reversal can recover what was lost. The damage is written into the biology of the seed. The US Corn Belt window closes mid-April. European top-dressing is happening now. Indian Kharif preparation begins in May. Bangladeshi Boro rice transplanting is underway this week. Every one of these windows is closing while the three largest sources of nitrogen on Earth are simultaneously locked: Hormuz by military blockade, Russia by export decree, China by trade ban. The USDA Prospective Plantings report arrives March 31. The FAO Food Price Index publishes April 3. These will quantify what the molecules already know: the nitrogen did not arrive. The yield loss is locked in. The 5 to 10 percent global drag will concentrate where the buffers are thinnest: subsistence farms in Bangladesh, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, where a 20 percent shortfall does not mean lower profits. It means hunger. Sri Lanka banned synthetic fertiliser in 2021. Rice yields collapsed 40 percent. The government fell. In 2008, fertiliser and oil spiked simultaneously and food riots erupted across 30 countries. In 2026, the strait blocks fertiliser while Russia and China withdraw the alternatives, and the planting windows close on a planet with nowhere else to turn. The war is fought with missiles. The famine is fought with molecules. The molecules are trapped behind three locks on three continents, timed to the one calendar that cannot be paused, extended, or negotiated: the calendar written into the DNA of every seed in the soil. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

This will always be my favorite gold bear tweet of all time 20 year bear market, when gold was below 1800 too

the corruption is the most structurally significant part of the administration. drain. the. swamp.

@adamscochran @TheRealZeni Premarket trading opens on most brokerages 7:00a. At that point liquidity expands meaningfully compared to 4:00a-6:59a window. Not a coincidence Trump's tweet was 7:05a.

@TheRealZeni Last night he was tweeting about bombing them and saying they had 48 hours to comply. 5 min before his announcement of "talks" which Iran denies, people just happen to buy massive volume? If you're truly that stupid you deserve the fleecing tbh.

5 minutes before Trump’s announcement: * $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip. * $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold. More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close. Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight!

@jbulltard1 Life is grand

The other headline at the bottom…..

@KobeissiLetter Post the tapes of the conversations, Trump.

BREAKING: Iran issues a statement DENYING President Trump's post which claimed the US and Iran have had "productive conversations" to end the Iran War: Iran says: 1. "There has been no indirect or direct contact with President Trump" 2. President Trump is trying to "buy time" in the Iran War 3. President Trump "withdrew" from power plant strikes after Iran's "firm warning" 4. President Trump's comments are "psychological warfare" 5. "Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions as long as psychological warfare continues" Iran has entirely denied all of President Trump's claims.

While our wonderful president was out playing golf all day, the TSA is falling apart, just like our government! Airports a total disaster!

@hkuppy It is not in the interests of the US to open SoH. US does not depend on it for oil. That is why Venezuela was first. Most of that oil is bound for China. 4D chess in action.

Trump can TACO, burrito and chimichanga, but nothing will open Hormuz unless Iran wants it open. We can’t go home with Hormuz shut and missiles raining down on our friends. The only way out, is through Iran.. As scary as that sounds, I think we’re going to mobilize serious boots on the ground. That takes 6+ months. No one’s portfolio is positioned for half a year of this chaos…

@realroseceline If you only ignore the business they're losing, the growth rate would be better.

Thoughts on $TTD It’s currently easy to throw rocks at $TTD. The stock is down significantly, sentiment has changed, Publicis dispute, and the CEO buying $150m of stock. Each of these is unusual on its own, and together they’ve completely changed the narrative. I’ve owned $TTD since it was around a $4b company, and it has been a large position for me. It’s obviously smaller now, that’s part of the game, in hindsight everyone is a genius. Today, almost no one wants to touch it. Markets love extremes, either everything is working perfectly, or everything is broken. But most of the time, reality is in the middle, and that’s where the opportunity usually is. Right now the easy narrative is that growth slowed, so something must be wrong. But a big part of that slowdown has nothing to do with the core business. Political spend ended, and autos and CPG cut budgets due to macro. If it wasn’t for this dynamic, $TTD would have gown 5% faster. Those two verticals are roughly a quarter of revenue, and they pulled back everywhere, not just with $TTD. The rest of the business is still growing nicely. So the real question is not whether growth slowed, it clearly did. The question is what actually broke? When I look at it, I don’t see something broken. I see a business going through “friction”. Most investors focus on the growth rate, but very few ask why this business exists? $TTD is not just an ad tech company, its basically capital allocation platform for marketing dollars. If $TTD didn’t exist, the open internet wouldn’t be neutral, it would be owned. And if you’re a global advertiser, relying entirely on $GOOG or $AMZN is not a great position to be in. You want control and transparency over where your dollars go. That’s the role $TTD plays, and it becomes more valuable as the ecosystem becomes more concentrated. $TTD has an enviable position because it has permission from the largest advertisers in the world to allocate their spend. $TTD doesn’t need to win everything. It just needs the marginal dollar that advertisers don’t want to send to $GOOG or $AMZN, and that becomes more valuable over time. What’s been forgotten is the quality of the business. A 40%+ EBITDA margin business that is still growing is not normal, that’s elite economics. That’s what great businesses look like when they’ve already scaled, not while they are scaling. This model has incredible operating leverage, like $DLO. The cost base is largely built, so as incremental revenue flows through each new dollar is more valuable than the last. Which means when growth stabilizes, cash flow doesn’t just grow, it accelerates! The company is also going through a transition as it grows into its scale. That creates friction, but you’ve seen this before with $AMZN, $META, and $NFLX, where things looked bleak right before the next phase. Ironically all three declined by 75% like $TTD. This is also a hard business to replicate. DSPs are not interchangeable, and what $TTD has built is years of integrations, data, and trust with large advertisers. If it were easy, there would already be real competitors at scale. But there aren’t any independent ones. There are risks. SBC is high, growth has slowed, and agency tension is a thorne (pun intended). But those are not structural breaks. Jeff Green has been running $TTD for years and has made good decisions. The $150m open market purchase is a big deal. CEOs don’t put that kind of money in unless they see something the market doesn’t. Right now the market is focused on what’s going wrong. But what happens if nothing is actually broken? Then you’re left with a business that has elite economics, a model that scales incredibly well, world class cash conversion and a pristine balance sheet with zero debt. Most people are asking what happens next quarter. I’m asking what this looks like in five years if nothing is broken? The biggest risk here isn’t the business. It’s the investor’s ability to sit through the narrative. 🌹