Front Wave Research

📰 Front Wave Market Insights - 12th May 2026 ⚠️ NIFTY downgraded to Weak – Stay Cautious! The market structure has deteriorated rapidly. Over the last few sessions, we’ve gone from a strong momentum setup to broad downgrades across the dashboard — and that shift is now clearly visible. 📊 Dashboard Updates: 🔻 Nifty → Weak 🔻 Bank Nifty, Realty, Energy → Weak; Most other indices → Neutral This is no longer a “buy the dip” environment. 🌍 Macro Pressure: 🛢 Oil near $100 continues to weigh heavily on markets and sentiment. 💡 Strategy: • Stay cautious • Cut weak longs / respect stop losses • Avoid aggressive dip buying For now, the trend remains negative and we take it day by day until the dashboard turns green again. 📉 In this phase: Sell on rises, preserve capital, wait for the next clean setup.

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🟡MFSL - Q4FY26 Max Financial Services reported a challenging Q4 FY26 with PAT turning to loss of ₹26.35 Cr due to fair value volatility and elevated finance costs. However, the business fundamentals remain strong with VNB growing 30% YoY, APE growth of 21% exceeding guidance, and NBM expanding 175 bps. The proposed MFSL-AMLI amalgamation and Axis Bank capital infusion of ₹389 Cr could unlock value. The surprise magnitude is minor as the company met volume guidance but faced earnings miss due to one-time items. 💡Key Investment Insights: 🟢Positive Factors: VNB grew 30% YoY to ₹1,633 Cr in 9M FY26 APE growth of 21% exceeded management guidance of 15-17% NBM expanded 175 bps YoY to 23.6% in 9M FY26 Embedded Value grew 16% YoY to ₹28,110 Cr Solvency ratio stable at 201% Standalone entity turned profitable: ₹5.90 Cr vs loss ₹9.22 Cr in FY25 Private market share increased 53 bps YoY to 9.8% Individual Adjusted FYP grew 20% YoY 🔴Risk Factors: Q4 FY26 PAT loss of ₹26.35 Cr vs profit ₹31.31 Cr in Q4 FY25 FY26 PBT declined 73.4% YoY to ₹119.77 Cr Life Insurance segment profit declined 52.9% YoY to ₹221.56 Cr Finance costs surged 136% YoY to ₹111.86 Cr Unallocated expenses increased 4.7x to ₹89.56 Cr Net fair value loss of ₹93.59 Cr in Q4 FY26 vs gain ₹41.53 Cr in Q3 FY26

🟡TORNTPOWER - Q4FY26 Q4 FY26 results show mixed performance with margin expansion (43 bps YoY) offset by 69.2% PAT decline due to absence of one-time tax benefit. T&D segment delivered strong 34.7% YoY EBITDA growth while Generation turned loss-making. Cash conversion remains strong at 2.21x but FCF negative due to heavy capex. Nabha Power acquisition (₹3,660 Cr) on track for June 2026 completion will add 1,400 MW capacity. FY27 outlook includes slightly higher capex and 1.2-1.5 GW capacity additions. 💡Key Investment Insights: 🟢Positive Factors: EBITDA margin improved 43 bps YoY to 17.94% in Q4 FY26 T&D segment EBITDA grew 34.7% YoY to ₹1,111.37 Cr with margin improving to 18.2% Renewables segment revenue grew 16.4% YoY with EBITDA margin at 68.5% Finance costs declined 10.6% YoY to ₹934.47 Cr due to debt refinancing CFO/PAT ratio strong at 2.21x indicating high cash conversion quality Interest service coverage improved to 6.17x from 5.50x Nabha Power acquisition on track for June 2026 completion - will add 1,400 MW coal capacity 🔴Risk Factors: PAT declined 69.2% YoY to ₹331.49 Cr due to absence of deferred tax credit Generation segment turned loss-making at -₹38.93 Cr in Q4 FY26 Revenue declined 0.8% YoY to ₹6,406.07 Cr Other expenses grew 42.5% YoY significantly outpacing revenue Free cash flow negative at ₹2,240.46 Cr due to heavy capex Debt/equity ratio deteriorated to 0.67x from 0.46x

🟡TATAPOWER - Q4FY26 Tata Power delivered margin expansion of 470 bps YoY to 25.6% despite 12.9% revenue decline, driven by fuel cost savings and T&D turnaround (EBIT +74.8%). Mundra SPPA resolution enables FY27 restart. However, CAPEX execution at 55% of target and 53% CFO decline raise concerns. Renewables growth (52.2% YoY) is offset by margin compression in that segment. The FY30 doubling targets remain on track but require acceleration from current 9.8% EBITDA growth rate. 💡Key Investment Insights: 🟢Positive Factors: EBITDA margin expanded 470 bps YoY to 25.6% despite 12.9% revenue decline, driven by fuel cost savings T&D segment EBIT grew 74.8% YoY with margin expansion of 460 bps to 12.7%, confirming turnaround Mundra SPPA executed March 23, 2026 enabling plant restart from April 2026 PAT grew 8.4% YoY to ₹1,415 crore; normalized PAT growth 13.5% after adjusting for ₹94 crore impairment Renewables segment revenue surged 52.2% YoY to ₹15,028 crore, becoming second-largest contributor Bad debts to receivables improved dramatically from 0.83% to 0.08% QoQ indicating better collection efficiency Net worth grew 11.4% YoY to ₹42,153 crore 🔴Risk Factors: CAPEX at ₹13,695 crore achieved only 55% of ₹25,000 crore FY26 target raising execution concerns Operating cash flow declined 53% YoY to ₹5,993 crore due to ₹6,253 crore working capital outflow Debt/Equity increased from 1.49x to 1.62x YoY, above management's FY30 target of <1.5x Kleros arbitration unfavorable award of USD 490.32 million; appeal filed but contingent liability remains Renewables margin contracted 410 bps to 22.9% contradicting management's 8-9% EPC margin target Current ratio at 0.87x remains below 1.0x indicating ongoing working capital stress

🔴DRREDDY - Q4FY26 Q4 FY26 was severely impacted with revenue declining 11.6% YoY and PAT falling 86.2% YoY due to Lenalidomide SSA impact in North America (-50.6% YoY). However, India (+20% YoY) and Emerging Markets (+29.2% YoY) demonstrated strong growth exceeding guidance. Regulatory risks resolved with SEC/DOJ closures, and semaglutide launch provides near-term catalyst. Margin compression (EBITDA 13.0%) remains a concern vs 25% target, though ex-one-offs adjusted to 19.5%. 💡Key Investment Insights: 🟢Positive Factors: India revenue grew 20% YoY, exceeding 15%+ growth guidance Semaglutide launched in India March 2026, Canada NOC received April 2026 SEC and DOJ investigations closed without enforcement action Emerging Markets grew 29.2% YoY, Europe +13.9% YoY partially offsetting NA decline R&D spend at 7.3% of revenue within 7-8% guidance range 77 pending ANDAs growing from 71 prior quarter Global Generics gross margin at 48.3% approaching 50-55% guidance Free cash flow positive at ₹16,888 Mn despite challenging quarter 🔴Risk Factors: North America revenue collapsed 50.6% YoY due to Lenalidomide SSA EBITDA margin at 13.0% (19.5% ex-one-offs) significantly below 25% target PSAI margin at 16.4% well below 20-25% guidance range PAT declined 86.2% YoY to ₹2,201 Mn RoCE declined to 15.8% from ~28% target (12.2 pp gap) CAR-T and Eftilagimod trial discontinuations resulted in ₹2,264 Mn impairments One-time items totaling ~₹9.8 Bn pre-tax impacted quarterly results

🟡DIXON - Q4FY26 DIXON delivered strong FY26 with 25.76% revenue growth to ₹4,887 Cr and robust cash generation (FCF ₹715 Cr, CFO/PAT 1.08x). However, Q4 saw a 35.9% PAT decline due to the absence of prior year's exceptional gain, and operating margin compressed 124 bps missing expansion guidance. The company's heavy capex cycle (₹1,068 Cr) and backward integration through Q Tech acquisition position it for future margin improvement, but near-term execution remains mixed with PLI scheme uncertainty pending. 💡Key Investment Insights: 🟢Positive Factors: FY26 revenue grew 25.76% YoY to ₹4,887 Cr, exceeding management's strong growth target Operating cash flow of ₹1,782 Cr with CFO/PAT ratio of 1.08x indicates high earnings quality Free cash flow of ₹715 Cr positive despite heavy capex, up 240% YoY Capex of ₹1,068 Cr delivered capacity expansion at Noida, Tirupati, Chennai and Q Tech acquisition Company EBITDA margin expanded 131 bps to 5.25% including Other Income Working capital remained negative at -7 days, a competitive advantage Finance costs declined 10.94% YoY despite borrowings increasing 131% to ₹468 Cr 🔴Risk Factors: Q4 PAT declined 35.9% YoY to ₹298 Cr due to absence of exceptional gain in Q4 FY25 Operating EBITDA margin compressed 124 bps YoY to 3.86%, missing guidance of 120-130 bps expansion PLI income of ₹1,110 Cr recognized but pending disbursement; scheme expires March 2026 Depreciation grew 39.77% YoY, significantly outpacing revenue growth due to aggressive capex NCI contribution increased to 12.5% of PAT from 11.1%, diluting owner earnings Revenue growth decelerated to 2.1% YoY in Q4 from strong earlier quarters

🔴RUSTOMJEE - Q4FY26 Rustomjee delivered strong operational performance in FY26 with pre-sales of ₹4,022 Cr (100.5% of guidance) and launch GDV of ₹9,813 Cr (140% of guidance), while maintaining debt/equity at 0.51 within limits. However, profitability deteriorated significantly with PAT declining 54.1% YoY and EBITDA margin compressing 545 bps to 4.75%, while operating cash flow was severely negative at ₹-509 Cr. The disconnect between operational execution and financial performance reflects the lag in revenue recognition under percentage of completion accounting and higher project-level financing costs. FY27 focus should be on margin recovery as projects progress from early-stage to mid-stage. 💡Key Investment Insights: 🟢Positive Factors: Revenue grew 31.5% YoY to ₹2,635 Cr (FY26) Pre-sales of ₹4,022 Cr achieved 100.5% of guidance Launch GDV of ₹9,813 Cr exceeded guidance by 140% Business Development GDV of ₹10,420 Cr exceeded guidance by 174% Debt/Equity at 0.51 remains within guidance limit of <0.75 Credit rating upgraded to A+ with Positive Outlook by India Ratings Collections grew 13% YoY to ₹2,621 Cr 🔴Risk Factors: PAT declined 54.1% YoY to ₹78.86 Cr despite 31.5% revenue growth EBITDA margin compressed 545 bps to 4.75% from 10.2% prior year Operating cash flow severely negative at ₹-509 Cr (CFO/PAT = -5.36x) Free cash flow negative at ₹-518 Cr Total borrowings increased 62% YoY to ₹1,463 Cr ROE at 2.8% far below long-term target of 25%+ Effective Tax Rate of 14.1% below guidance range of 20-25%

🟢BERGEPAINT - Q4FY26 Berger Paints delivered a strong Q4 with EBITDA margin of 18.3% (standalone) exceeding management's 15-17% guidance range and volume growth of 11.8% surpassing the ~10% target. PAT grew 27.5% YoY demonstrating strong operating leverage despite raw material cost pressures. The 10-quarter high gross margin of 42.3% and accelerating volume growth (11.8% vs 8% in Q3) indicate a sustained margin inflection. Price increases of over 11% from March 2026 and strong demand recovery in urban markets provide near-term catalysts. The debt-free balance sheet and strong cash conversion (1.28x) support continued execution. 💡Key Investment Insights: 🟢Positive Factors: Q4 Standalone EBITDA margin 18.3% exceeded 15-17% guidance range by 130-330 bps Q4 volume growth 11.8% exceeded management guidance of ~10% by 180 bps PAT grew 27.5% YoY to ₹335.25 crore, significantly outpacing revenue growth of 6.1% Gross margin at 42.3% is a 10-quarter high, indicating sustained margin improvement Operating cash flow of ₹1,406.43 crore represents 1.28x cash conversion quality Company maintains debt-free balance sheet with Debt/Equity at 0.02x Volume growth accelerated from 8% in Q3 to 11.8% in Q4 showing demand momentum Subsidiaries and JVs delivered double-digit growth in topline and operating profit 🔴Risk Factors: Raw material costs grew 7.7% YoY vs revenue growth 6.1%, indicating input price pressure Total expenses grew 8.4% YoY vs revenue 6.1%, causing margin compression at operating level Inventory build of ₹180.83 crore in Q4 provides temporary margin boost but may reverse FY26 PAT declined 4.6% YoY to ₹1,128.02 crore despite Q4 strength Subsidiary contribution to PAT is modest at 2.4%, limiting diversification benefit Nepal operations impacted by political instability affecting regional performance

🟢MOBIKWIK - Q4FY26 MobiKwik achieved second consecutive profitable quarter with PAT of ₹43.84 Mn, delivering on management's Q3/Q4 break-even guidance. EBITDA margin expanded 2,312 bps YoY to 6.03% driven by 14.1% expense reduction. However, full-year FY26 loss of ₹621 Mn and negative operating cash flow of ₹781 Mn highlight ongoing challenges. New NBFC and broking licenses secured provide future growth drivers, while 34% IPO proceeds remain unutilized. 💡Key Investment Insights: 🟢Positive Factors: Second consecutive profitable quarter achieved with PAT of ₹43.84 Mn vs loss of ₹560.37 Mn in Q4 FY25 EBITDA margin expanded to 6.03% from -17.09% YoY — a 2,312 bps improvement Revenue grew 7.8% YoY to ₹2,887.12 Mn while expenses declined 14.1% YoY Lending operational expenses reduced 95% YoY reflecting successful pivot to lower-risk ZIP EMI New regulatory licenses secured: NBFC (April 2026) and stock broking (February 2026) Finance costs declined 23.4% YoY indicating reduced borrowing levels ₹1,821.55 Mn (34%) of IPO proceeds remain unutilized providing investment runway 🔴Risk Factors: FY26 full-year loss of ₹621.01 Mn despite quarterly profitability — annual guidance not fully met Fixed costs at ₹1,273.05 Mn exceeded management target of ₹1,050-1,100 Mn by 15-21% Working capital deteriorated with trade receivables up 30% YoY Operating cash flow negative at -₹781.40 Mn for FY26 Subsidiaries dragged consolidated PAT by ₹79.47 Mn (12.8% of loss) Fraud incident of ₹403.59 Mn — ₹118.31 Mn remains unrecovered

And for those following The Solar Decade series, here are the previous editions 👇 ☀️ Edition 01 — India’s Solar Manufacturing Buildout …research-indiasolardecade.netlify.app ⚙️ Edition 02 — The Integration Trade …earch-theintegrationtrade.netlify.app 🧬 Edition 03 — The Cell Transition …veresearch-celltransition.netlify.app

India didn’t just build solar manufacturing capacity. It built an entire POLICY FRAMEWORK around it. 🛡️⚡ From: 📜 ALMM Lists 🚫 Import Restrictions 💰 PLI Incentives 🏭 Domestic Content Requirements 🛃 Customs Duties Every policy layer changed: 📈 who could compete 🏗️ who could scale 👑 and eventually, who could lead Over the last few years, India’s solar sector has evolved from an open market… into one of the most strategically protected manufacturing ecosystems globally. 🌏 📘 THE POLICY WALL Solar Decade · Edition 04 Front Wave Research …veresearch-solardecade-e4.netlify.app #waaree #solar #almm #solarcell #premier

🔴ACI - Q4FY26 ACI reported a severely disappointing Q4 with revenue declining 12.9% YoY and PAT plunging 75% YoY as EBITDA margin collapsed by 1450 bps to 14.5%. The company missed all key guidance targets (Salt volume, Bromine production, Oren revenue) and subsidiaries dragged 44.5% of consolidated PAT. Net debt surged 164.5% as the company funds a heavy investment cycle, with finance costs jumping 35x YoY in Q4. Execution quality is poor with multiple guidance misses and significant margin pressure. 💡Key Investment Insights: 🟢Positive Factors: Revenue grew 3.8% YoY for full year FY26 to ₹108,105.07 Lakh Q4 revenue grew 18.2% QoQ indicating sequential recovery from weak Q3 Operating cash flow to PAT ratio strong at 1.32x Total equity attributable to owners increased 3.8% YoY to ₹193,438.97 Lakh Working capital slightly improved with net working capital down 2.7% YoY Board recommended dividend of ₹2.50 per share (125% of face value) 🔴Risk Factors: Q4 revenue declined 12.9% YoY, PAT declined 75% YoY - severe margin pressure EBITDA margin collapsed to 14.5% in Q4 from 29.0% YoY (1450 bps compression) Missed all key guidance targets: Salt volume (4.5-5M tons), Bromine (18k-25k tons), Oren revenue Net debt surged 164.5% YoY to ₹36,379.10 Lakh - company no longer net debt-free Finance costs jumped 35x YoY in Q4, 217.7% for full year Subsidiaries dragged ₹4,751.35 Lakh (44.5%) from consolidated PAT Free cash flow sharply negative at ₹24,253.49 Lakh due to heavy investment cycle Cost of materials consumed rose 39.3% YoY outpacing revenue growth significantly

☀️ Front Wave Morning Pulse: 🔴NIFTY set to have a weak opening with 0.4% cuts 🔴WTI OIL at 99$ 🔴USDINR at new high of 95.6! 🟢Gold, silver, & copper continue their momentum higher

📰 Front Wave Market Insights - 11th May 2026 Sharp downside move today as renewed tensions pushed WTI Oil back near $100. That pressure immediately reflected across markets. 📊 Dashboard Updates: 🔻 Nifty → Neutral 🔻 Bank Nifty, Realty, Energy → Neutral 🔺 DXY → Neutral (caution signal returning) Over the last few weeks, we’ve consistently highlighted how: 🛢 Oil + 💱 DXY = the key macro variables for our markets. That pressure is now visible again. 📅 What Changes Now? Last week’s broad bullish momentum has cooled into consolidation once again. Structure is no longer as comfortable as before. 🎯 Key Level: 23,800 on Nifty remains the critical support. A decisive break below that can shift markets into a more negative phase. 💡 Strategy: • Stay measured • Watch the dashboard closely • Let the next trend emerge before getting aggressive again For now: consolidation with caution.

🔋 We started with the SCALE of India’s solar manufacturing buildout. ⚙️ Then came the INTEGRATION trade forming beneath it. Now, the focus shifts to the CELL itself. 🧬 📈 PERC → TOPCon → HJT ⚡ 22% → 27% efficiency transition 🏭 ₹3–9 Cr/GW capex range 📊 2 GW → 10 GW planned HJT capacity A technology transition that could reshape: 👑 Market Leadership 📈 Industry Margins ⚙️ Manufacturing Competitiveness 🔋 Module Efficiency Not all cells are equal. And not every manufacturer is prepared for what comes next. 📘 THE CELL TRANSITION Solar Decade · Edition 03 Front Wave Research …veresearch-celltransition.netlify.app #waaree #premier #investing #reliance #solar #almm #cell

22 days before the catalyst, the integration trade has already started. ALMM List-II goes live 1 June 2026. Waaree's $3.5Bn announcement on 7 May was the loudest move ahead of it. Edition 02 reads the five largest listed names against each other. 🌞 The Solar Decade · Edition 02 The Integration Trade | Indian Solar Manufacturing ⚡ 17× capital intensity · module to poly-to-module 🏗️ ₹1.5L Cr+ committed sector capex 📈 27 → 80 GW cell capacity ramp · FY26 to FY28 📅 ALMM List-II live 1 June 2026 🔍 5 names · 5 shapes of the trade 👉 Full read …earch-theintegrationtrade.netlify.app Front Wave Research · SEBI RA INH000018407

🚨 In 24 days, India's solar manufacturing turns into a different industry. On 1 June 2026, ALMM List-II goes live — government solar tenders will require Indian-made cells. The pricing power shifts overnight. We just published our opening note on what this means, who benefits, and why we're spending serious bandwidth here. 🌞 The Solar Decade Sector Note | Indian Solar Manufacturing ⚡ 45 GW capacity added in FY26 🏗️ ₹1.5 lakh cr capex through 2028 📅 ALMM List-II live 1 June 2026 🔍 14 names mapped 👉 Full read …research-indiasolardecade.netlify.app Front Wave Research SEBI RA: INH000018407 #waaree #premier #reliance

#Q4WithETNOW | Satin Creditcare reports Q4 results, check out the key numbers 👇 @LtdSatin #EarningswithETNOW #StockMarketIndia

🚨NTPC plans to establish 30 GW of nuclear capacity across 14 states.

BHARAT FORGE: CO SECURES A STRATEGIC LONG-TERM CONTRACT FROM GLOBAL AEROSPACE GIANT EMBRAER FOR THE MANUFACTURING OF LANDING GEAR FORGINGS

@vijayshekhar But more dependence on China, because of components.