@Ukrainian Institute for the Future

Ukraine’s post-war economy may face a debt challenge. IMF projects: — Public debt > $300B by 2027 — Budget deficit: 17.7% of GDP — Debt: up to 137% of GDP At the same time: — Inflation is rising again (7.6% YoY) — Trade deficit is widening ($4.4B) — Tax increases expected from March 2026 Key question: Can Ukraine sustain recovery without entering a debt trap? 🔗 Full analysis: uifuture.org/en/digests/mac… ... Prepared within the project “Strong Civil Society of Ukraine — a Driver of Reforms and Democracy”. #Ukraine #IMF #Economy #Macroeconomics

⛽️Russia’s oil is under pressure. Ukrainian drone strikes have taken ~40% of Russia’s oil export capacity offline (Reuters). This is no longer tactical — it’s systemic. At the same time, the U.S. may pause arms deliveries to Ukraine (Politico), prioritizing a potential conflict with Iran. Key questions: — Can economic pressure limit Russia’s war machine? — Can Ukraine’s air defense hold without Patriot interceptors? 🔗 Full analysis: uifuture.org/dajdzhesty/viy… Publication created by the NGO "Ukrainian Institute of the Future" together with the Defence Alliance of Ukraine #Ukraine #War #Energy #Defense

Ukraine is running out of cheap energy — or is it? What looks like a crisis may be a strategic pivot: — High electricity prices → deindustrialization — “No cheap energy” → myth — AI → new industrial role — Nuclear → core advantage Key: Ukraine can scale baseload capacity 5x by 2035. This decides one thing: tech core — or periphery. Watch ↓ youtube.com/watch?v=yvdHHJ… Produced within the project “A Strong Civil Society in Ukraine — a Driver of Reforms and Democracy.” #Ukraine #Energy #AI

✈️ Air war is becoming a war of algorithms. Russia deploys drone swarms that operate without human control. Ukraine responds: Defense AI Center “A1” + Saab 340 for airspace control. The largest UAV strike of the war. Next phase: autonomous warfare. This publication was produced by the NGO Ukrainian Institute for the Future in cooperation with the Defense Alliance of Ukraine. #Ukraine #Defense #Drones #AI

Russia is not a “resilient empire.” It is a system that has never stopped suppressing internal revolts. 1552: Kazan falls — Within 5 years: the first major uprising — Then two more within 30 years The pattern repeats for centuries: Bashkirs, Cossacks, the Caucasus, Chechnya. Even in 2022: protests in Bashkiria and Buryatia — with minority populations still bearing a disproportionate cost. The real question is not “why hasn’t Russia collapsed?” It is: how much coercion does it take to hold it together? Short answer: constant, structural violence. This is why Russia struggles with treaties — not by accident, but by design of the system. No collapse ≠ no fragility. Just not yet at the tipping point. 👉 Read the full analysis: uifuture.org/en/articles/ru… This material was prepared with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation (@IRF_Ukraine) #IRFUkraine #UIF #Ukraine #RussianImperialism #Geopolitics #EasternEurope #PostColonial #WarStudies

New taxes for Ukrainians 🇺🇦 Ukraine is considering tax changes that could impact small businesses and entrepreneurs. What will this mean for economic activity? Speaker: @AnatoliyAmelin, — Executive Director and Co-founder of the analytical center UIF #Ukraine #Economy #Taxes #SmallBusiness

Ukraine’s defence tech = speed over perfection. 50%+ of battlefield impact is already driven by Ukrainian solutions. Conversation with Iryna Terekh (Fire Point) 👇 Part of “Vision Ukraine 2035” by UIF. Within the project “A Strong Civil Society in Ukraine — a Driver of Reforms and Democracy” (supported by the International Renaissance Foundation). 🔗 youtube.com/watch?v=jL4f3y… #Ukraine #DefenceTech #UkraineTech #MilitaryTech #Innovation #WarTech #RebuildUkraine #UkrainianInnovation

Crimea annexation wasn’t unexpected. It was a replay. The scenario was written in 1772: “independence,” a controlled ruler, military presence — then annexation. 1783 and 2014 follow the same pattern. Different pace, same logic. What followed: repression, deportations, and a collapse of the local population. Read ↓ uifuture.org/en/articles/th… Part of “Anatomy of Empire”. Supported by the International Renaissance Foundation @IRF_Ukraine #IRFUkraine #Crimea #Ukraine #History #RussianImperialism #UIF

Business in Ukraine = constant uncertainty. Why it still works — and what’s broken: taxes, capital, strategy, war impact. Conversation with Vladyslav Antypov, founder of CERN Ukraine. Part of “Vision Ukraine 2035” by UIF. Within the project “A Strong Civil Society in Ukraine — a Driver of Reforms and Democracy.” 🔗 Link in the comments #Ukraine #UkraineEconomy #BusinessInUkraine #EconomicResilience #Investment #Sustainability #GreenEconomy #RebuildUkraine #CleanTech #VisionUkraine2035

Living on debt Ukraine’s economy is increasingly dependent on borrowing. Rising public debt, fiscal pressure, and external financing risks are growing. Speaker: @AnatoliyAmelin — Executive Director and Co-founder of the analytical center UIF #Ukraine #Economy #Debt #Finance

🛡 Ukraine builds its own “shield” Ukraine is developing a 4-layer air defense system — while partners prepare to test new systems on its territory. Key points: - Domestic “dome” in development - Leonardo to test Michelangelo Dome in Ukraine - FP-7 (300 km) and FP-9 (800 km) missiles in progress - DELTA adds real-time air threat “Radar” This marks a shift: Ukraine is becoming a battlefield lab for next-gen air defense. 🔗 Full analysis: uifuture.org/dajdzhesty/viy… #Ukraine #airdefense #war #miltech #security

🏛 A “state within a state” — a model Russia still uses The oprichnina under Ivan the Terrible wasn’t an anomaly. It was a system: - One state → split into two - One legal → one outside the law - Loyalty → to the ruler, not institutions This model repeats: Stalin → NKVD Putin → FSB, Rosgvardia, Wagner, Kadyrov forces Parallel power structures. Personal loyalty. No rule of law. A system like this cannot be a reliable partner. 🔗 uifuture.org/statti/derzhav…⁠� @IRF_Ukraine #IRFUkraine #Ukraine #Russia #analysis #history #security

⚡️ Ukraine’s electricity market: regulatory shifts behind recovery Ukraine is moving out of power deficit: +3.5 GW restored, solar generation rising, outages nearly gone. But at the same time: - price caps are being revised - import rules are changing - price caps are being revisedtools are emerging Temporary fixes — or a new market reality? Analysis by Andrian Prokip ↓ 🔗 Link in comments This publication is prepared within the framework of the project “Strong Civil Society of Ukraine — A Driver of Reforms and Democracy.” #Ukraine #Energy #Electricity

Ukraine is already among the top arms producers Speaker: @AnatoliyAmelin — Executive Director and Co-founder of the analytical center UIF Within the framework of the project “Strong Civil Society of Ukraine — a driver of reforms and democracy” #defense #defenseindustry #economyofukraine #ukraine #weapons

Ukraine is losing its industry Speaker: @AnatoliyAmelin Executive Director and Co-founder of the analytical center UIF Within the framework of the project “A Strong Civil Society of Ukraine — a Driver of Reforms and Democracy.” #industry #jobs #ukrainianindustry #ukraineeconomy #ukraineeconomy

Drones for the Middle East Speaker: @AnatoliyAmelin — Executive Director and Co-founder of the analytical center UIF #UIF #drones #MiddleEast #geopolitics #security #militarytechnology

Ukraine: how Russia first captured it — 1654 The Pereiaslav Council wasn’t Khmelnytsky’s “mistake.” Both sides signed what they thought was the same deal — but with completely different meanings. — For the Cossacks: a military alliance — For Moscow: permanent submission 360 years later — Minsk agreements. The same imperial playbook. New analysis: Anatomy of Empire: uifuture.org/en/articles/ho… @IRF_Ukraine #IRFUkraine #Ukraine #History #RussianImperialism