Gary

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Gary

Gary

@garyHeff

individually investing

MA Katılım Kasım 2019
756 Takip Edilen2.4K Takipçiler
Gary
Gary@garyHeff·
I'd start here in trying to determine how Paramount is going to run their business with less cost than the legacy companies
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Gary
Gary@garyHeff·
In February 2026, we executed a six-year cloud infrastructure services agreement with Oracle with a total commitment of $300 million, under which payments escalate over the term, in connection with our anticipated enterprise, data, and streaming workloads. $PSKY
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Sergi
Sergi@sergimp16·
@garyHeff Hi. Impossible to know. But lightera announced capacity expansion recently. I think the backlog ramp up is very significant
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Sergi
Sergi@sergimp16·
Very surprised to see many mediocre optical names going up like crazy and no one paying attention to $OCC. Following for months, the thesis now is at a critical inflection point. I know they never delivered, but the past was looking very different. DC plus military tailwinds…
Sergi@sergimp16

I think when the optics and fiber crowd discover $OCC, which looks like the ugly baby with a nice chance at least, things could get interesting. I tell you the upside (believer) case: $150M sales at 20% EBIT margin vs 72M market cap… $AAOI $GLW $CIEN $LITE $CRDO $AXTI $MRVL

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Gary
Gary@garyHeff·
@sergimp16 have you done any work to attempt to quantify the speed/size of the Lightera ramp up? ... if they were short capacity and took excess from OCC then it could be significant, but that's just a hypothetical
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Sergi@sergimp16·
I don’t think WC will be a problem because I am modeling 4% core busines growth and $7M DC Revenue in 2026, they have access to debt. But I hope it will be a problem because then the most likely is Lightera coming in. Imo the risk of a raise to open market is very low.
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Gary
Gary@garyHeff·
Raises the question: if you're CBS, do you agree to a ~50% increase in NFL rights prior to the start of the '26 season if you haven't yet closed the $PSKY / $WBD deal?
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Gary
Gary@garyHeff·
In the chart above, in almost each instance Nexstar is above 30% market share on a standalone basis before accounting for market share gains from Tegna
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Gary@garyHeff·
"The chart below summarizes Defendants’ approximate Big 4 television retransmission consent market shares, based on revenue, and the effect of the Proposed Transaction on the HHI in each of the eleven Big 4 Overlap DMAs whose viewers include residents of the Plaintiff States."
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Gary
Gary@garyHeff·
Paramount kicked off their regulatory review process in early December despite announcing their deal in late February ... it's as if that jump start will allow the deal to close before the states can respond
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Gary
Gary@garyHeff·
Bonta's office took 212 days from the deal announcement to the filing of the lawsuit
InsideArbitrage@InsideArbitrage

California Attorney General Bonta Files Lawsuit Seeking to Block Nexstar $NXST/ Tegna $TGNA Merger - 📺The deal would create the largest broadcast station group in the United States, putting more broadcast programming in the hands of fewer people, cutting local jobs. 📺The deal is also expected to raise prices and harm consumers. 📺In filing this lawsuit, @AGRobBonta joins the attorneys general of New York, Colorado, Illinois, Oregon, North Carolina, Connecticut, and Virginia. 📺In California, the combined entity would own half of the Big Four (FOX, NBC, ABC, and CBS) network-affiliated stations, including the local FOX and ABC stations in the Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto area and the local FOX and CBS stations in the San Diego area.

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Gary@garyHeff·
@ClarkinM That's a shame. They were one of a kind.
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MDC@ClarkinM·
Going through some 13F's, did Indaba shut down? One of my favorite funds to sift through their holdings, hope the best for the team there.
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Gary
Gary@garyHeff·
Maybe a merger arb pro like @BongCapital can answer this one: what's the purpose of these eleventh hour fake bidders? This isn't the first time I've seen something like this. For instance, Nobelis Capital for Warner Bros
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Gary
Gary@garyHeff·
David Zaslav once again shaped the Warner Bros merger negotiations for the sole benefit of David Zaslav $WBD
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Gary
Gary@garyHeff·
@TheNarrenschiff The capacity utilization "ramp" is always just around the corner. Is there a good reason for this? What's actually going on with this company?
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Paul Narrenschiff
Paul Narrenschiff@TheNarrenschiff·
Imagine if people stopped thinking $LFCR was a great business idea that were definitely going to execute in 18 months perpetually into the future and didn't want to pay 20x NTM for it anymore.
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Gary
Gary@garyHeff·
@BichonRedux Agree. Once Ellison / RedBird have tens of billions of dollars worth of $PSKY B shares, they will have a very strong incentive to remove any overhang from the dual-class structure. Thanks for bringing this to light, Bichon.
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Gary
Gary@garyHeff·
>50% $PSKY B shares doesn't confer control given the presence of the non-traded A shares A/B structure enables massive share issuance, no vote M&A Once $WBD completes, Ellison & Redbird collapse A/B share structure, given controlling B share block?
Son of a Bichon (Humility and Gratitude + TRT)@BichonRedux

@PuckNews @WilliamCohan It was engineered so he’d personally still have >50% control. I predicted it months ago.

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Gary
Gary@garyHeff·
Leaving this here for quick reference the next time someone tells me the $PSKY $WBD deal is contingent on Middle East financing
Gary tweet mediaGary tweet media
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Keşfet

@sergimp16 @ClarkinM @BongCapital @TheNarrenschiff @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano