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A casefire has finally been announced in the Gulf War.
For Trump, its a win
For Iran, it's a pause.
For the world, its a relief.
But here's the harder question nobody's asking:
What does "winning" even mean in this war?
Because depending on who you are — the answer is very different.
On February 28, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran — killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and destroying nuclear and military infrastructure.
Iran's Response:
Shut the Strait of Hormuz — which triggered the largest energy supply disruption since the 1973 oil crisis.
39 days later, both sides are talking, off and on. Through negotiators.
But how do things stand right now? Who won?
DOES THE US WIN?
Militarily? On paper, yes.
The US destroyed :
-2,000 + targets
-19 Iranian ships
-1 submarine
-B-2 bombers dismantled hardened ballistic missile facilities.
But this has come at a huge cost to the US.
Trump is right when he says that the Strait of Hormuz is insignificant for American oil.
Trump got it wrong when he underestimated it's impact on US' Asian partners — including its closest strategic allies. They absorbed the overwhelming share of the economic damage.
Of course, Trump has railed against US allies who "didn't help" with the war.
So, America destroyed Iran's military. But in doing so, it also economically punished the very coalition it needs for the next crisis.
DOES IRAN WIN?
Iran lost :
- Supreme Leader
- Nuclear infrastructure
- Mlitary command structure.
And yet —
The conflict has empowered the Revolutionary Guard, and that Iran's strategy is based around its ability to outlast, rather than outgun, its opponents.
Iran held a $120-a-barrel gun to the world's head for 39 days. This is leverage — even in defeat.
THE HORMUZ CHOKEPOINT :
Trump administration boasted that Iran's military has been "obliterated".
Important to note that the world's most powerful military spent 39 days and billions of dollars — and Iran's primary weapon remains intact.
The Strait of Hormuz still remains a chokepoint. A 34-kilometre chokepoint deciding a war.
This is modern day warfare. Asymmetric.
THE CEASEFIRE TERMS TELL THE STORY!
Iran's 10-point peace proposal included :
-Guarantee of no future attacks
-End to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah
-Removal of sanctions
- $2 million fee/ship moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Read that AGAIN.
If accepted, Iran gets a permanent economic WIN from a war it militarily LOST.
THE GCC WILL NEVER BE THE SAME AGAIN.
There are no winners among the Gulf states. Only degrees of loss and varying levels of destruction and permanent damage.
Gulf states+ Iraq lost $1.1 billion/day in oil revenue due to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The GCC economic model has been decimated -
-Food imports disrupted
-Desalination plants struck
-Consumer prices skyrocketing
-Tourism gone
-Unparalleled reputational loss (no more an oasis of luxury/peace/prosperity)
Add to it the miscalculation by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait : that the military op was swift.
#dubaï
SO WHO WINS?
US -
Military Wins
Alliance Loss
Iran -
Military Loss
Negotiation Win
GCC:
Total & Complete Loss
Israel :
Iran's military defeated : Big Win
Ceasefire brokered on Iranian timeline: Loss
Strait of Hormuz:
Part of a rules based global economic order that's now dead.
#straitofhormuz
#IranWar #Israël
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