Gregory Brew

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Gregory Brew

Gregory Brew

@gbrew24

Senior Analyst, Iran and Oil @EurasiaGroup. Formerly @ISSYale. Author of "The Struggle for Iran" and "Petroleum and Progress in Iran." Views my own.

Katılım Ekim 2012
4.2K Takip Edilen55.8K Takipçiler
Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
US guidance for shipping: stick to the Omani coast, call the Omanis. That's it.
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Eurasia Group
Eurasia Group@EurasiaGroup·
While America may emerge relatively unscathed from the energy crisis it started by going to war with Iran, the long-term implications for its oil-based economy could be profoundly destabilizing. Our expert @gbrew24 explains for @nytimes: nytimes.com/2026/05/02/opi…
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
On the one hand, Trump wants to break the deadlock--the scheme to get ships out of the strait is clearly a move to undermine Iran's position. On the other hand, it's incremental. And unless there are active escorts, it may not change much. axios.com/2026/05/04/tru…
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
"This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran...I think it would go a long way in showing Goodwill on behalf of all of those who have been fighting so strenuously over the last number of months. If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully."
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
Ship in the strait struck by a projectile. Second incident today. First was a ship attacked by small boats.
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
Iranians propose a plan that starts with the strait gradually reopening. US takes the proposal, sends a response. Shortly thereafter, Trump announces plan to guide neutral ships out of the strait. Trump's message does not reject (or accept) Iranian proposal, but notes that talks are moving in a positive direction.
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
A few things: -Trump is very careful to emphasize that the US will be escorting ships that have no connection to either side in the current conflict--ships that are, in other words, "not hostile." -the US will only be escorting ships to exit the street; he knows that the ships will likely not be returning to the region. -he emphasizes (for the first time in a while) that discussions with the Iranians are going in a positive direction. -he does all of this roughly 1 hour before Brent futures open.
Giovanni Staunovo🛢@staunovo

Trump post on Iran/shipping Countries from all over the World, almost all of which are not involved in the Middle Eastern dispute going on so visibly, and violently, for all to see, have asked the United States if we could help free up their Ships, which are locked up in the Strait of Hormuz, on something which they have absolutely nothing to do with — They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders! For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business. Again, these are Ships from areas of the World that are not in any way involved with that which is currently taking place in the Middle East. I have told my Representatives to inform them that we will use best efforts to get their Ships and Crews safely out of the Strait. In all cases, they said they will not be returning until the area becomes safe for navigation, and everything else. This process, Project Freedom, will begin Monday morning, Middle East time. I am fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all. The Ship movement is merely meant to free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong — They are victims of circumstance. This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran. Many of these Ships are running low on food, and everything else necessary for largescale crews to stay on board in a healthy and sanitary manner. I think it would go a long way in showing Goodwill on behalf of all of those who have been fighting so strenuously over the last number of months. If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
Lots of evidence to suggest US-Iran diplomacy is very active at the moment. At least four proposals have changed hands over the last week. The latest offer from Iran prompted a US response today. No posts from Trump today, and apart from a few calls to reporters (indicating he was not satisfied), nothing else from the US.
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
This place got much better about five months ago, slop way down. Now, out of nowhere, the slop is back. Not sure what to make of it.
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Paul E Williams
Paul E Williams@PEWilliams_·
Presenting Mr. and Mrs. Williams
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
1) this doesn't answer the question. 2) futures do NOT predict future prices, they represent a contract for delivery at a future date 3) futures are primarily useful for refiners gauging the present market condition and calls on inventories--lower futures (backwardation) indicate a tight market.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar

BARTIROMO: Do you think oil prices will be lower before the midterm elections? BESSENT: Ahh -- I think oil prices, we can see in the futures market that oil prices are already lower 3 months, 6 months, 9 months out (Not a yes!)

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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
This is per Al Jazeera and Al-Arabiya, to be clear. I expect we'll see confirmation one way or another soon.
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
Details on Iran's proposal are now getting out--what Iran is offering, rather than just its demands. -15 year enrichment freeze, after which time Iran will enrich to 3.5% -an international body to administer a general peace between the US, Israel, Iran and Hezbollah. -reopening of the strait, including minesweeping (Iran has offered to cooperate with US on this). -gradually ending blockade (so not immediate) -a new clause on "compensation" (unclear but could address tolls)
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
@adamscochran @matthew_petti He said last night he would be reviewing the details (which he indicated he had just received). So I'm not sure WH has made a clear determination on this offer, as yet.
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