Gregory Brew
59.6K posts
@gbrew24
Senior Analyst, Iran and Oil @EurasiaGroup. Formerly @ISSYale. Author of "The Struggle for Iran" and "Petroleum and Progress in Iran." Views my own.
My feed. This is all over the place and the civil military divide in Iran between the IRGC and civilian leaders continues to rear its ugly head
"A senior U.S. defense official said the U.S. military is still not seeing any Iranian military movements on the ground that reflect a potential "closing' of the strait." It doesn't matter. Just the announcement itself is sufficient to deter use of the Strait of Hormuz. axios.com/2026/06/20/ira…
If this is real (and not just some more posturing ahead of talks in Switzerland), it may serve as a major test of Iran's "new status quo" in the strait. Shipping had begun moving again since Weds, JMIC had lowered threat level, demining had commenced. Can Iran close the strait with threats, or will it need to return to using force to stop the flow of traffic?
Iran joint military HQ (Khatam al-Anbiya): "In view of the blatant bad faith and breach of covenant by America regarding the failure to implement the first article of the end-of-war agreement, and in reaction to the relentless and continuous violation of the ceasefire by the Zionist regime in southern Lebanon...the failure of the Zionist occupying forces to withdraw from the territories of southern Lebanon, it is announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to the passage of vessels."
Something worth thinking about re: Trump’s current Iran stance. He said he wanted to end the war to avoid “economic catastrophe” and avoiding becoming the next Hoover. But he also said if Iran violates MOU-based process, he’d bomb Iran…which could restart war.
The king of the last empire on United States territory had eight wives, surrendered undefeated, then went on regular hunting trips with the president, and was an extra in several early Westerns.
Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are heading to Switzerland for possible nuclear talks with Iran. The talks, originally planned for Friday, were delayed due to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, and a new date has not been confirmed. Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, a key mediator, is also in Switzerland. Source: Axios
Two things can be true at once. Trump has totally backed this deal and he wants Vance to be the public face of it so he can pretend he had nothing to do with it in the event it all blows up. He also knows the Iranians prefer Vance as their interlocutor and the new gambit is rapprochement. “Bad boyars, good tsar” is the wrong framing. It’s “heads Trump wins, tails Vance loses.” He’s done this before, deflecting criticism about what Colby does at DoD by calling him “JD’s guy.” You don’t need to overthink it. His tendencies are well-advertised and known.
And we should remember that, for now, the key question is not "does Iran say Hormuz is open" but rather "do shippers fear Hormuz might be closed" Whatever the official statements, a sense of uncertainty will have a detrimental effect on traffic (see also: Bab el-Mandab)
Statement from Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander:
JD Vance on arming Iranian protesters: It's actually somewhat difficult. You know, you can't just drop weapons from the sky here. There isn't really the infrastructure to get weapons to the heart of the Iranian people. One of the things the president was very bothered by was all of these innocent protesters who were being slaughtered by the people who were in charge a few months ago. Those people are now gone. But we're going to see: Do these new leaders treat the people differently? We certainly hope so. And if they don't, we can figure it out once we actually see their conduct. Source: CBN News
