geertb
16.5K posts
@geertb
soms zot, soms debiel, soms gewoon, soms creatief, soms slim, maar meestal gewoontjes.
🇬🇧 The recent capital gains tax increase in the UK was expected to bring additional tax revenue. Instead, high-net-worth individuals and families are leaving the country, leading to a 10% fall in net capital gains tax revenue. Welcome to the Laffer curve, suckers.
🚨 The largest autopsy study reveals that the vaccine caused 74% of deaths.
The war in the Strait of Hormuz will reach your local pharmacy within six weeks. Not because your pharmacist follows geopolitics. Because the active pharmaceutical ingredients in roughly half of America’s generic prescriptions begin as petrochemical derivatives manufactured in India, and India’s petrochemical industry begins as crude oil that transited 21 miles of water that closed on March 4. Nearly 70 percent of the active ingredients in US generic drugs are produced in India. India imports approximately 40 percent of its crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The crude feeds refineries that produce naphtha. The naphtha feeds petrochemical crackers that produce intermediates. The intermediates feed pharmaceutical plants in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Hyderabad that produce the API, the active pharmaceutical ingredient, that is shipped to contract manufacturers in the United States, Europe, and across Asia. The chain from the strait to the tablet is six steps long. Every step requires the one before it. CNBC reported that the Hormuz closure puts America’s generic drug supply at risk. Fierce Pharma warned of longer-term effects on US manufacturing and generics. Think Global Health mapped the pharmaceutical supply chains most vulnerable to disruption. The consensus across trade publications, health policy analysts, and industry executives is identical: four to six weeks of current inventory exists in the pipeline. After that, shortages begin with the most complex formulations first. Cancer drugs are the highest risk. Biologics requiring cold-chain storage have the shortest shelf life and the longest replenishment cycle. Clinical trial medications depend on uninterrupted supply chains that are now interrupted. Insulin analogues, antivirals, and cardiac medications all contain intermediates sourced from Indian manufacturers whose input costs are rising with every day the strait remains closed. Air cargo is the emergency bypass. But air freight rates from India have climbed 200 to 350 percent on some routes since the war began, according to logistics tracking firms. Gulf air capacity is down 79 percent because airports in the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar have been damaged or operate under restricted conditions. The Suez Canal route adds 10 to 14 days to maritime shipping times. The Cape of Good Hope route adds 21 to 28 days. Both alternatives assume the Red Sea remains navigable, which the Houthi threat has complicated since 2024. The World Health Organisation reported a 70 percent funding gap for its operational response in the region. Medical supply chains to Iran itself have been devastated, with hospitals reporting shortages of surgical supplies, blood products, and anaesthetics. But the downstream pharmaceutical effect extends far beyond the war zone. Every Indian manufacturer that pays more for crude pays more for naphtha, pays more for intermediates, and passes the cost forward into API prices that American generic drug companies absorb until they cannot absorb any further. The molecule does not know it is a medicine. The strait does not know it is a pharmacy. The petrochemical derivative that becomes a blood pressure tablet transits the same water as the petrochemical derivative that becomes a fertiliser pellet. Both are trapped. Both have shelf lives. Both have planting windows or prescription refill cycles that do not negotiate with blockades. Six weeks. Then the pharmacy starts calling patients about substitutions. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Does Iran have the legal right to create checkpoints in the Strait of Hormuz? According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982, they do not. However, Iran signed but never ratified UNCLOS 1982, similar to the United States. As a result, Iran reverts to UNCLOS 1958. The key difference between the two conventions is that the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982 designates the Strait of Hormuz as an international strait, allowing for "transit passage." In contrast, UNCLOS 1958 refers to international straits with "innocent passage." The term "innocent passage" permits foreign vessels to navigate through a coastal state's territorial waters without prior authorization, provided their passage is considered "innocent," meaning it does not threaten the peace, good order, or security of the coastal state. Under the rules of UNCLOS 1958, Iran can enforce its domestic laws in the Iranian part of the Strait concerning: - Safety of navigation - Pollution prevention - Security and surveillance Iran asserts that the United States cannot enjoy the rights of "transit passage" as defined in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), arguing that the U.S. only has the right of "innocent passage" since it never ratified UNCLOS 1982. In response, the U.S. dismisses this claim, stating that "transit passage" has become a principle of "customary law." This means that if all countries adhere to a particular practice for decades, it becomes legally binding, regardless of whether the treaty has been ratified.
