QuantVue

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@KobeissiLetter Higher yields instantly pressure valuations, tighten liquidity, and pull money out of growth names. If the 10Y breaks 4.5%, stocks won’t like it for sure.

The 10Y Note Yield is now up 45 basis points in 3 WEEKS. If April 2025 taught us anything, it’s that President Trump does not want the 10Y Yield above 4.50%. We are 10 basis points away.

@KobeissiLetter Yesterday was a major unwinding of positioning from long only funds as well. This environment is sell first ask questions later x.com/getquantvue/st…

BREAKING: The S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, and the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQ, have seen combined outflows of -$64 billion over the last 3 months, the most on record. This marks a sharp reversal from +$50 billion in 3-month inflows posted in November. This is also almost DOUBLE the previous decade high set in 2018. Not even the 2020 pandemic and the March-April 2025 sell-off saw such significant outflows. As a % of assets under management, the 3-month outflow is up to -5%, the biggest since Q1 2023. By comparison, the largest percentage outflow over the last decade was -8% in April 2018. Investors are have rushed to the sidelines.

@KobeissiLetter They always wait for late Friday into the weekend when the markets are closed to perform major market-moving operations and investors have taken note of this. Same story all over again. Context below shared with our Subs this morning.

BREAKING: The Nasdaq 100 falls over -1% as the US announces up to 2,500 additional Marines are being deployed to the Middle East.

Curious what historically follows a capitulation of this magnitude? We’ve modeled S&P 500 performance across every comparable selling event in the dataset. The results, along with our updated market outlook, are in today’s brief. open.substack.com/pub/quantvue/p…

Yesterday’s session stands out. Long-only funds net sold $9.6bn across the Goldman Sachs floor, registering a 50% sell skew. This was the largest single day of net selling in the dataset going back to 2022, a 5-sigma event. Learn what this means for the markets👇

**Get QuantLynk (and LightningLynk on release) here: ** quantlynk.io/pricing Want to try our latest Qpilot and incoming Qrange indicators? **Get our Pro or Elite plan here:** quantvue.io/pricing *FYI - the majority of ATS clients started on Pro or Elite and shortly after upgraded to ATS.* These plans are a fantastic entry point into the QuantVue ecosystem.

We've got another round of exciting updates and new tools coming to our clients. Our CTO Anthony posted the following message over in our members Discord: ---- # New stuff ## Pro Level Users Q_Pilot Pro is receiving an update! You'll see in the screenshot below we now have a trend ribbon, but its not just your standard ribbon - this one is based off the same volume mathematics that find the vol peaks and bottoms, and provides a very very early warning of a reversal and new trend. I put this side by side with competitors like Lux and it absolutely smokes it. There are a couple other things as well, which you'll see in the changelog. Should have the update pushed by this weekend if it's good in beta. ## Elite Level Users In the screenshots you'll see a new indicator - Q_Range. This takes the aggregate of as much research on the topics as is available, my proprietary mathematics, and some stuff I cooked up in my kitchen (don't tell my wife I f*cked up her pots), and brings to you a very cool indicator that predicts the potential range each day. Each of the levels is drawn at the very beginning of that phase (4 phases per NYSE session) and continue to the end of the day. Even if the price breaks out of a later phase it will frequently respect the range predicted in an earlier phase. Honestly this thing is so bizarrely accurate I'm surprised. This will massively benefit any manual trader by giving them a good idea of how large the day's potential range may be, and will be a basis (combined with Q_Pilot) for volume and channel based fades and reversals in the upcoming Q_Pilot ATS. Speaking of Q_Pilot the Elite version is still being tested. I want to release it with good layouts. We have several that are doing well and running as a portfolio. ## ATS Level Users ATS v1.4 is getting a redux, and will reappear as the VPS based remote trading something something. I'll name it something appropriate. Regardless - it's getting updated with new architecture and a sweet color theme that matches the QuantVue Cyberpunk based theme in LL. It should significantly enhance stability, reliability, and ease of use. I don't have an ETA but it has all the base coded just need to put some finishing touches on it and then get it into beta. Also EVO 1.6.1 is now in beta with the enhanced pullback conviction and some better messaging surrounding the exit signal that everyone thinks is an error because its a 415 but usually actually isn't an error. When Q_Pilot Elite is released I will begin work on the ATS version. Alright my adorable little futures ferrets, I'm out. ---- If you missed our last few emails about LightningLynk being released in open beta, here's some details on that below. **"What is LightningLynk?"** → A lightning-fast order execution interface built directly into QuantLynk → DOM-style ladder for 1-click entries and exits → Designed for scalpers and manual traders who need speed → Works seamlessly with all QuantVue indicators We released LightningLynk out in the world via an OPEN BETA the other day. **HOW DO I GET ACCESS?** 1) You need to be a QuantLynk subscriber 2) QuantLynk users can download the program using the link provided over in our Discord members-area Ok, that's it for today. Happy trading out there!

We see opportunities in the fear of others. We called for support overnight on our Substack and expected buying around our pivot. For 6 hours, the market was trying to break below and failed, which ultimately resulted in a sharp 70-point reversal. $ES

Long-term bias kills short-term trades. The market doesn't care about your conviction, it cares about price action. 🎯 Pivot held 5+ times today. 30+ point bounces each time. 👀 Q_Range dropping soon, built for manual traders alongside Q-Pilot. $ES

@KobeissiLetter It's pretty bad. A lot of investors have already positioned for this though. The volatility isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

This is absolutely insane: The world is quite literally facing what appears to be the largest energy crisis in history. US crude oil futures are now trading at a $20+/barrel DISCOUNT to Brent, also one of the largest on record. As the US increases production and taps into reserves, the EU is facing a full out energy crisis. European natural gas prices are up another +30% today and physical crude oil prices in Oman and elsewhere are trading at $150+/barrel. In other words, the gap between Oman and US prices now stands at ~70%, or ~$70+ per barrel. It has become so bad for Europe that the market is now pricing-in 2 interest rate HIKES in 2026, even as the US removes sanctions on Russian oil. US rate cuts in 2026 are almost entirely priced-out as a result with Core PPI inflation on PRE-WAR data rising to its highest since February 2023. The entire global economy just took a complete 180 degree turn in 3 weeks. The next few months are going to be historic.

Retail investors have moved early into oil-sensitive outperformers, echoing a pattern distinct from the Russia-Ukraine episode while $ invested in equities shrunk ~15% week-over-week — plunging ~43% since the start of the conflict.

🎯 While many attributed the pullback to the PPI print, we flagged the prior 2-day advance as fragile before the report ever dropped, and didn't identify a single area of support until 90 points lower. The absolute bottom of the session for 2 hours remains our first pivot. $ES

@KobeissiLetter People thought the worlds problems were over due to a two-session upside. This is what we've shared this morning prior to the PPI inflation number.

BREAKING: US February PPI inflation rises to 3.4%, above expectations of 2.9%. Core PPI inflation rises to 3.9%, above expectations of 3.7%. Core PPI inflation is at its highest since February 2023 and this data does not include the Iran war. Rate cuts are being priced-out.

Learn what this means for the markets in today's brief: open.substack.com/pub/quantvue/p…

The VIX decline was driven by hedge monetization, not genuine risk appetite returning. Investors unwound put protection aggressively while call buying remained thin. The options market was saying the hedges were no longer worth carrying at these premiums.

Last week delivered something traders rarely see: spot down, vol down. Typically when equities sell off, implied volatility rises as demand for hedges increases. That relationship broke down, and the decomposition below shows why.

@KobeissiLetter Hormuz Traffic has also plunged. Almost nothing goes through.

The Strait of Hormuz is now dominating global market coverage: The number of stories mentioning "Hormuz" on the Bloomberg terminal is up to a record 62,010 this month. This marks a +4,084% increase since the end of February. This also exceeds stories mentioning "ChatGPT" by +1,359%. Even at its February 2023 peak, "ChatGPT" stories only reached 17,990, or -71% lower than "Hormuz" today. This comes as the Strait of Hormuz, a route for ~20% of global oil supply, remains largely closed to shipping amid the Iran War. The entire world is watching the Strait of Hormuz.

@KobeissiLetter The volatility risk premium is elevated. Investors are paying extreme premiums to hedge, yet realized moves aren't cooperating. Historically, when VRP reaches these extremes, forward returns on $SPX have been constructive.

Demand for downside protection on US stocks is rapidly rising: The 1-month put-call skew on the S&P 500 is up to ~12 points, the steepest since December 2021. This means investors are paying some of the highest premiums for bets on lower prices over bets on higher prices since the 2020 crash. The put-call skew has nearly doubled since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, short positioning in ETFs surged for the 2nd-consecutive week and at one of the fastest rates on record. Furthermore, ETFs have reflected over 35% of the market trading for 11 straight days, in-line with the longest streak on record seen in 2020, driven by shorts and hedging activity. Investors are hedging at a near-record pace.

Quote from this morning's Market Brief, flagging the risk of a market where nobody owns the upside. Volatility measures both risk and magnitude. It can just as easily trigger a sharp directional move as the one we just saw, and broadly anticipated. $SPX

Markets are flashing stress signals beneath the surface, and the positioning data tells a story the headlines are not. Subscribe to read where institutional flows, systematic strategies, and volatility dynamics are pointing next. 👇 open.substack.com/pub/quantvue/p…

Positioning in US equity futures has started to reset. Investors remain net long overall, but the speed of the recent reduction highlights that a meaningful amount of discretionary de-risking has already taken place. Read what this means for the market in today's Brief 👇