Globalaren

@Snaljapen Men du ser inte någon regulatorisk risk? Osannolikt att man i Asien skulle börja bry sig om det, helt plötsligt, när man får en enkel genväg att minska sina utsläpp.

@Snaljapen …även om den passar mixen just nu. Håller helt med ang. I-Tech, särskilt när det inte finns någon eldsjäl/VD med relativt stor ägarandel med i bilden (lättare fatta dumma, kortsiktiga beslut med andras pengar…). Så många bolag diworsifierar när de har en toppen-käenprodukt.

Ge mig ditt 2026 bästa case att studera under julledigheten. Krav: 1 lönsamt (positiv VpA), 2 market cap 800-2500 msek, 3 kassaflödespositivt, 4 engagerad huvudägare Vilken parameter skall driva värdetillväxten? Omsättningstillväxt, marginalexpansion eller multipelexpansion?

@rjn551 Dels har man varit försiktig med prishöjningar pga. något osäker marknad, men framförallt kör man ett pris = all funktionalitet nu. Befäster man sin marknadsposition riktigt ordentligt finns ingen anledning till att prissättningen inte skulle kunna vara modulär. 2/2

@rjn551 Det finns många saker att gilla som långsiktig ägare, t.ex. att bolaget fortfarande ägs/leds av grundarna, samt att man har starkt fokus på sin kärnprodukt. Jag tror också att man har en latent pricing power som kanske underskattas lite på några års sikt. 1/

Opter har haft det lite kämpigare senaste året men q3 var ändå hyggligt, om än bara 8% tillväxt. Borde väl kunna nå ca 100 Mkr i oms i år ändå,vilket var målet för ett par år sen. Men Ebit kanske 24-25 exkl engångskostnader. Tappar sällan kunder men det har varit några konkurser

@Snaljapen befattningshavare som också är storägare i $ITECH. Dessutom svårt veta hur bolaget ska värderas när regulatorisk risk ligger som en våt filt och kanske spiller över från EU (även om det i praktiken är osannolikt).

@Snaljapen Spontant känns tryckkokare i skogen (vars tillväxt inte riskerar att hämmas indirekt/direkt av regulatoriska krav) till EV/EBIT ~8,5 och som screenar dåligt pga. chipsfabrik + annat smått och gott som ett rimligare alternativ. Gillar inte att det inte finns någon engagerad 1/

@IcqqkaeyD @balkemyr @IcqqkaeyD What an unnecessarily rude comment… 1 minute of research and you’d quickly realize that, in practice, they’re not preferred shares. Keep up the good work, Balkemyr!

@balkemyr it's a pref dumbass

A&O Johansen $AOJ (growth 11 %) PE (2025)=12.8 Grodno S.A. (growth 3 %) PE (2025)=13.7 Rexel (growth 2 %) PE (2025)=15.7 Wesco $WCC (growth 8 %) PE (2025)=20.5 $ALLIGO (growth 2 %) PE (2025)=23-ish Ferguson $FERG (growth 4 %) PE (2025)=25-ish Solar A/S (growth -2 %) PE (2025)=50

@longonly1981 Som vanligt en av veckans höjdpunkter. Jag har tackat er tidigare, men vill återigen ge beröm för en fantastisk intervjupodd! Tips på gäster: Viktor Edlund, som byggt upp Opter från grunden. Vore spännande att höra om hans doldis-entreprenörsresa. Någon på Melker Schörling också?

Ett samtal med legenden Mats Qviberg blir sällan händelsefattigt open.spotify.com/episode/2Hfmes…

@JM_Investment0 According to the 20-F he doesn’t appear to hold any shares at all.

Details on ownership can be found in the 20-F form they release. Go on the investor section of their website, look under financials and annual filings and it’s the top result. I would rather the take rate decline than have the TPV growth slow at this stage. Long term, even as markets become more developed I still see a need for a company like $DLO, just as there is a need for Stripe and Adyen but more so considering the lack of common currencies. My hope is that as markets reach that stage, $DLO will have a majority market share and even if take rates decline, they will make a lot of money.

Let’s talk about dLocal $DLO, my largest and highest conviction holding. I won’t focus on what they do - lots of people talk about that here. Instead I’m going to talk about why I have so much conviction & why I think it’s good value (still). Sorry it’s long… 🧵

@JM_Investment0 …of the business model (the MOAT). What I still don’t understand completely is how the development of undeveloped markets will play out, i.e. will widespread payment methods be accepted, making DLO useless? When it comes to PIX, that doesn’t seem to be the case. 3/3

@JM_Investment0 I believe that the market might underestimate this decline, though; Q2 was most likely not a trend shift, more like a random event. Imho, the long thesis is that DLO can fend off competitors for a long period of time and that the market does not appreciate the longevity… 2/3

@JM_Investment0 Great thread. I think it is safe to assume that the take rate will cont. to decline (Pedro is clear about this in conf. calls). What do you base your take rate assumpt. on? Secondly, one of my concerns is Pedro’s ownership. I find no info about his economic incentives. Thoughts?

If you’ve read this far, thank you. This thread took me a while to write and I would appreciate any feedback and support. I plan to do a similar thread about most of my holdings, this being the first one.

@alexeliasson Lite väl aggressiva antaganden kring marginalerna på kort sikt, kan jag tycka, men lågt tvåsiffrigt P/E på 26e känns fortfarande väldigt attraktivt.

SEB nämner tillväxt i Sverige 🇸🇪, försvarsinvesteringar och underhåll i VA-systemet som framtida drivkrafter för $AOJ, i sin höjning till -> 130DKK. Jag tror inte man behöver bli sängliggande kränkt av att betala p/e 8x + 5% div för nästa år (+ väldigt stort fastighetsbestånd).

@SimeonResearch_ I could of course be wrong (very likely), but mgmt seems to be doing everything right.

@SimeonResearch_ Looking forward to it! One of the most compelling investment cases, as far as I’m concerned, when it comes to businesses with wide moats, incentivised mgmt team that focuses on cost-control and effective capital allocation is PAR Technology (discl. I am a long-term shareholder).

Completely under the radar here that 🇬🇷 markets are up 217% up in the last 5 Years Top performers 📊 🏦 $NBGRY - Up 1074% 🌐 $ILYDA.AT - Up 959% 🏦 $EUROB.AT - Up 758% ⚡️ $MYTIL.ST - Up 591%

@MMMTwealth A few questions: What makes it reasonable to assume a 2+ % take rate, given the secular decline in take rates? From the Q4 report: “we should expect a net take rate compression while delivering high TPV growth”. Secondly, what makes it reasonable to assume a 30 % TPV gr. rate?

Here's why $DLO is undervalued today at $9.81 👇 TPV growth rates are currently at 53% YoY (from Q1) which is 72% in constant currency terms. Given this, historical growth trends, and peers consistent growth rates in emerging markets, $DLO should be able to grow TPV at 30% CAGR through to 2030. This means we could hit $123.6B in TPV by 2030. With a take rate of 2.1% we have $2.6B in revenue by 2030 (based on these conservative numbers). Now if we assume a 30% FCF margin which CEO has publicly stated is the goal, we hit $780M in free cash flow. Given the annualized FCF (based on Q1) would be $378M in 2025, this means $DLO could be growing FCF at 15.7% to reach $780M in FCF by 2030. That means a very conservative FCF multiple of 15x would value $DLO at $11.7B which presents a 4x opportunity. Just a 20x multiple puts $DLO at $15.6B which is a 5.5x opportunity. Why are you not investing in $DLO?

@rubicon59 Thanks for taking the time to chat with me. Much appreciated. Last Q: What are Pedro’s financial incentives? Has he purchased shares or is he only incentivized through options?

@globalaren Difficult. Rough to integrate a myriad payment methods and fin licenses across dozens and dozens of small countries.

$DLO looks very promising. Excellent Q1. Low implied valuation. But will improvements continue?