Georgi Karastoyanov

#XAUUSD #GOLD #FED #USA #UK Gold prices tested the $4,100 support level, as we anticipated. Investors following the short-selling strategy have gained over 200 points; you may now lock in profits or close your positions. Gold is expected to find support at $4,100; consider opening a light long position with targets at $4,120–$4,140. Please contact me if you would like precise entry points as well as take-profit and stop-loss levels.

#PPI #XAUUSD #CPI #BOC #Warsh #GOLD #FED #USA The PPI data arrived as expected, with both bulls and bears getting what they wanted. Gold prices surged above $40 immediately after the data release, indicating a systematic retreat in market pricing of interest rate hikes. However, the real referee hasn't taken the stage yet—Wash's Senate testimony will be crucial in setting the tone. Wash said yesterday he "won't look at a month's worth of data," and he's highly likely to repeat that today—this is the biggest risk of a pullback after the bulls' surge. The BOC will speak before Warsh, and is almost certainly expected to remain unchanged, but the market's focus will be on its assessment of the transmission of oil price inflation. If it warns that the transmission risk is widening, it indirectly paves the way for Warsh's testimony. Wash's testimony will likely continue yesterday's tone—affirming progress in inflation, emphasizing that Core inflation remains high, reiterating "zero tolerance" and the 2% target, and refusing to provide a path for interest rates. This combination is neutral in itself, but the market might interpret it as "not dovish enough," as evidenced by yesterday's surge to 4103 followed by a $50 pullback. Be wary of Warsh dampening the PPI increase. In summary, the bulls hold two strong cards: CPI and PPI, while the bears have three hidden cards: Core's accelerating price movement, Warsh's testimony, and oil prices. The first half of today's trading session favored the bulls, but the second half could see a reversal. Avoid chasing PPI increases; wait for Warsh's speech before making a directional decision. My personal assessment: $4100 remains the toughest nut to crack this week. Short-term focus is on the $4070-$4100 area. As long as gold prices don't firmly establish themselves above $4100, the bears will remain in control, with a target of $4040-$4020.

#XAUUSD #GOLD #PPI #FED #USA #CPI #Iran #Warsh Yesterday, influenced by the CPI data, gold briefly surged to around $4100. Overnight, it immediately retreated, and continued to fall in early trading today. The short-term downtrend is unlikely to be reversed by a single data release; such rapid, immediate price fluctuations are unreliable. Currently, the market's focus remains on the US-Iran conflict. Continued US strikes against Iran have led to a resurgence in oil prices, increased inflation expectations, and rising interest rate hike expectations. At present, the only topics the US seems to have for speculation are the Iranian strikes and the resulting interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, global tech stocks have fallen from their highs, and capital has begun its withdrawal, making a crisis imminent. Now, we await the market's tipping point. When the crisis erupts, the market will be reshuffled; stocks that should have risen will catch up, and those that should have fallen will plummet. In the short term, the positive CPI data provides bottom support, but selling pressure above $4100 is heavy. Today's PPI data, coupled with Warsh's Senate testimony, will determine whether the $4100 resistance level can be broken. The FOMC's decision to keep rates unchanged on July 28th is virtually certain, but the expectation of a September rate hike remains as high as 63%, which is the ceiling for gold prices. If retail sales are strong on July 17th and the Iranian withdrawal escalates, gold prices may retest $4000. In the short term, the first resistance level to watch is $4040. If gold prices fail to break through this level, short positions can be initiated again, targeting $4000-$3980. If gold prices hold above $4040, shorting opportunities can be sought in the $4070-$7080 range.

#GOLD #XAUUSD ---TP 4080-4090 HIT 📈📈📈📈 #CPI ✅✅✅✅✅ After the CPI data was released, gold immediately surged to around 4095-4100. The signal successfully reached the target price. All profits were made!

#XAUUSD #CPI #GOLD #USA #FED During the Asian trading session, gold fell below the psychological $4,000 mark—the first time since June 7—signaling that the current correction has entered a deeper phase. The core driver is clear: an extreme geopolitical escalation—involving the closure of the strait and a fourth round of US military strikes—yet capital is flooding into the US dollar and Treasuries rather than gold. The surge in oil prices failed to support gold; instead, it backfired on the metal through the chain reaction of "inflation → rate hike expectations → rising real interest rates." The "safe-haven paradox" is playing out for the sixth time, creating a self-reinforcing negative feedback loop. The short-term outlook is bearish, though chasing short positions below $3,950 is not recommended. Central bank buying, the need for a correction from oversold levels, and a potential "apparent cooling" of the CPI form a strong support zone between $3,950 and $3,960. If tonight's core CPI month-over-month figure drops to 0.2% or lower, gold could rebound to the $4,050–$4,090 range; If the core monthly rate comes in at 0.3% or higher, gold will head straight for $3,950—a level defended by central banks; breaching it would require extreme bearish catalysts. In the short term, watch the $4,040 resistance level; failure to break above this point favors short positions targeting $4,020–$4,000, with a further drop potentially targeting $3,960–$3,950.

#XAUUSD #CPI #GOLD #USA #FED During the Asian trading session, gold fell below the psychological $4,000 mark—the first time since June 7—signaling that the current correction has entered a deeper phase. The core driver is clear: an extreme geopolitical escalation—involving the closure of the strait and a fourth round of US military strikes—yet capital is flooding into the US dollar and Treasuries rather than gold. The surge in oil prices failed to support gold; instead, it backfired on the metal through the chain reaction of "inflation → rate hike expectations → rising real interest rates." The "safe-haven paradox" is playing out for the sixth time, creating a self-reinforcing negative feedback loop. The short-term outlook is bearish, though chasing short positions below $3,950 is not recommended. Central bank buying, the need for a correction from oversold levels, and a potential "apparent cooling" of the CPI form a strong support zone between $3,950 and $3,960. If tonight's core CPI month-over-month figure drops to 0.2% or lower, gold could rebound to the $4,050–$4,090 range; If the core monthly rate comes in at 0.3% or higher, gold will head straight for $3,950—a level defended by central banks; breaching it would require extreme bearish catalysts. In the short term, watch the $4,040 resistance level; failure to break above this point favors short positions targeting $4,020–$4,000, with a further drop potentially targeting $3,960–$3,950.