brian green

@Kross_Roads Existing revenue that goes away is basically 0%. But Robinhood bull case is not (to me) massive market share in crypto. It’s the super app/sum of the parts that leads to market share across the board. Every feature legacy can implement makes that customer harder to “poach”.

@greenbrian63 Okay, and what % of an impact does that have on their revenue? It's extremely likely it rounds down to 0%. People still think Robinhood is heavily tied to crypto revenue. Yes, there's a connection, but they've diversified significantly since the past crypto winter.

$HOOD Each time a new player enters crypto, people expect Robinhood's demise. Three issues with that: 1️⃣ Robinhood's crypto revenue is nearing 10% of their overall revenue and will likely be under 10% this year, especially as predictions markets, international expansion, and banking / credit cards continue to ramp. This is a very different scenario than where their crypto % was at in 2021. 2️⃣ Do we seriously expect that $SCHW will take a meaningful amount of crypto business from Robinhood? That sure wasn't the case for $BULL or $SOFI (probably - a bit too early to tell on that one with 100% certainty). And if they somehow do take business from Robinhood (very unlikely), how meaningful would that be? Let's imagine an outlandish scenario where Schwab takes 20% of Robinhood's crypto business. That's like 2.5% of their revenue. A dent, even in that very unrealistic scenario. 3️⃣ UI, positioning, and pricing. Robinhood is incredibly vertically integrated, and will be increasingly so as the Robinhood Chain gets built out. Yes, a whole lot of other companies offer crypto as well, but there aren't many who can compete with pricing unless they're burning cash to do so. There are cheaper options (DEX) out there and always have been, but that's where the UI comes into play. Pricing is important, but if a large part of your users understand crypto and invest accordingly, you don't have to have the absolute lowest price to retain significant volumes. Robinhood is the perfect mix between pricing and positioning.

@BadAINoData @christopherrufo @grok Thats too much work I think ill just go to work tomorrow instead. I mean I think I will encourage my friend to go to work tomorrow instead...

@greenbrian63 @christopherrufo @grok 1) obtain leaked personal information: name, SSN, employer 2) file for unemployment 3) provide your bank account for deposits 4) enjoy $450/week for 26 weeks

California's unemployment insurance system is so insecure, a Memphis rapper named Nuke Bizzle taught his listeners how to steal massive amounts of cash. Mr. Bizzle later pleaded guilty to stealing more than $700k from the program. "You gotta sell cocaine, I just file a claim."

@JuanRodrig07 Even if this is a joke, its telling that we are not sure if it is or not.

$PYPL Goetz Trillhaas (Country Director, PayPal Ads Germany) on LinkedIn. “Our infernal tests have shown that wearing formal attire leads to a measurable 6.3% increase in sales performance. Whether in client meetings or virtual calls, the impact of a suit and tie on perceived professionalism and trust of our media partners is significant” 😳😳😳😳

@FunOfInvesting Our own trojan horse...

In other news, I started in a leadership role at a fintech company and in my onboarding $SOFI came up on our competitors list 😅

@TheBabylonBee You should make one about trump being a huge supporter of the metric system since finding out Gas is $1.00 a liter. “They get $1 gas because they call it 'Liter'. Some people don't know they call it that. Totally unfair. Why don't we call it liter and have $1 gas?”

Trump Presidential Library To Feature Solemn 'Reflecting Pool' Of Liberal Tears buff.ly/Tg1USrz

@StockMarketNerd I am too... tempted for the first time since last April to trim a couple positions in hopes of re-buying lower. Gonna try and resist thought.

I have so little faith in this bounce. Probably a good sign. 😂

@Jason @farzyness Just don’t be surprised if there’s a revolution and a bunch of heads are cut off. Jobs are extraordinarily important, especially for young men. Without meaningful work they either commit suicide via substance abuse and video games, or kill those they deem responsible.

Here’s the truth: we’ve already reached AGI — we just haven’t implemented it broadly. Millions of jobs are being lost as we speak. Entire careers will be retired. The rich and powerful investors and founders who implement AGI will get bizarrely rich beyond what makes sense. It will break people's brains on both sides. It’s gonna suck for a lot of our friends and family, who aren’t obsessed with their careers, because things are moving so fast they won’t have even left the starting gate by the time the awards are handed out. We’re gonna have to solve for a lot of second- and third-order effects, some of which will suck (job loss) and some of which will be awesome. AI will create free/cheap energy, free education, cheaper and better food, homes that build themselves and medicine that makes you as healthy as a 30-year-old when you’re 100. … change is hard, but humans are the most adaptable species nature has ever created. We can figure it out.

@JaguarAnalytics He should make a $1,000 bill 😂

BREAKING: Treasury announces Pres Trump's signature to appear on new US currency, replacing the traditional signature of the Treasurer of the United States, which has appeared on bills since 1861

@svpino My suspicion is that the value in 5 years will not be on the technical side but on the project management/design side of things. Someone with a vision actually is more capable of executing on that vision than ever before.

Last year, I met a person who has never written a single line of code in his life, yet he feels he can build anything he wants. He told me point-blank: "I challenge you to tell me something I can't build using AI." I tried to explain, but I couldn't find the right words. The most fascinating aspect of vibe-coding is how it has convinced so many people to believe they are better and more capable than they really are.

@svpino I’ve never written a line of code but am “vibe coding” something that I never could have built before. Very time consuming and requires a subscription but if I can make something I thoroughly enjoy using then I can’t imagine what someone with a little base knowledge could do.

@CGInvesting10 Yeah I use it for investing. Not great for trading but excellent for investing.

I’m curious… Does anyone actually invest with $SOFI?

@grok @KrisPatel99 @stevenfiorillo @muddywatersre @SoFi @grok Does SoFi retain the risk? Have they falsely inflated 2025 gains by 9% EBITDA?

Kris is referring to a seller-financed loan sale practice in Muddy Waters' short report on SoFi. SoFi sells whole personal loans to PE-backed trusts (tied to Carlyle, Sixth Street, Luminarx Capital) via Cantor Fitzgerald as intermediary. SoFi then provides secured loans funding ~90% of the purchase price at ~5% (while loans yield ~13%). MW claims this isn't a true arms-length sale, retains SoFi's risk/control (fails ASC 860), and inflates 2025 gains on sale by ~$96M (9% of adj. EBITDA).

My phone has been going off nonstop due to the short report from @muddywatersre regarding @SoFi. Here is my opinion on the Personal Loan Charge Off Rate which is just one aspect. The Muddy Waters Thesis The Muddy Waters short thesis relies heavily on the idea that SOFI is artificially suppressing its Personal Loan charge off rate to protect the Fair Value of its assets. Muddy Waters argues that SOFI's true charge off rate is sitting closer to 6.1% which is drastically different from the 2.80% annualized net rate the company reported in Q4 2025. They claim SOFI pulls this off by offloading distressed loans just days before the 120-day mandatory charge off window, and stashing defaulted loans in off-balance-sheet Variable Interest Entities (VIEs). If SOFI had to plug that 6.1% rate into its discounted cash flow (DCF) models, Muddy Waters estimates it would wipe out $259 million in Fair Value gains, dragging down 2025 Adjusted EBITDA by almost 25%. To back this up, the report points to court filings showing SOFI sold $62.5 million in defaulted loans to Eltura Ventures, LLC for just $5 million (about 8 cents on the dollar) to dodge the charge-off hit. The Reality of SOFI’s Disclosures If you take a close look at SOFI’s financial disclosures and standard banking practices they paint a very different picture. The idea that SOFI is secretly burying losses assumes their metrics are meant to mislead investors. In reality, SOFI openly details these exact moves in its SEC filings. Their earnings releases clearly state that the reported 2.80% Q4 2025 charge off rate already bakes in asset sales, new originations, and late-stage delinquency sales. Management even models out what the numbers would look like without these sales to give the market total transparency. Their filings explicitly note that if they hadn't sold those late stage delinquent loans that the all-in annualized net charge off rate for Q4 2025 would have been around 4.4%. This would have been 0.2% higher than in Q3 2025. Capital Optimization, Not Manipulation Selling late stage delinquent loans right before the 120-day mark isn't a shady accounting loophole. From what I have researched, it’s standard practice for capital optimization across the consumer lending industry. Federal rules indicate that personal loans generally need to be charged off at 120 days past due. By the time a loan gets that close to the wire, the odds of internal collections recovering the principal are practically zero. Offloading the asset at a deep discount to a specialized debt buyer makes strategic sense. It brings in immediate cash that can be redeployed into new, performing loans, and it permanently hands off the headache of tail-end collection risks, legal fees, and operational drag. SOFI is upfront about this as they refer to it as a value enhancing move driven by better recovery capabilities and the retention of servicing rights. Calling a routine distressed asset sale a fraud mechanism ignores basic economics. SOFI getting 8 cents on the dollar in cold hard cash today is objectively better than taking a total accounting loss and wasting years chasing pennies through the courts. The Math on Vintage Performance Zooming out to look at the massive block of loans originated from Q1 2020 through Q3 2025, 60% of the principal has already been paid down. This has generated significant levels of cash flow for SOFI. On the paid off balance, SOFI has taken just 6.8% in net cumulative losses, which represents only 4.1% of the total original balance. SOFI operates with an underwriting tolerance capped at an 8% life of loan cumulative net loss, which they publicly state. To breach that 8% limit on the 2020–2025 cohort, the remaining 40% of unpaid principal would have to suffer a catastrophic 10% charge-off rate. When I factor in tighter credit standards and how more recent cohorts are performing compared to the historical cohorts, it makes the odds of hitting those loss levels incredibly slim in my opinion. I feel that the internal default assumptions in SOFI's Fair Value models are backed up by actual, realized vintage performance data, directly contradicting the claim of systemic manipulation. Conclusion Everyone has the right to their own opinion. I believe that there are many holes in the short report from Muddy Waters. I plan on making a detailed video about all of the aspects I disagree with. @Futurenvesting @Futurenvesting @Kross_Roads is there anything I missed on this aspect? This will make for a great discussion when all of us speak tomorrow and Friday night. @anthonynoto I believe I have everything correct for $SOFI and if I don't I apologize in advance.

@KrisPatel99 @stevenfiorillo @muddywatersre @SoFi @grok what is Kris referring to?

@stevenfiorillo @muddywatersre @SoFi what about the deal with cantor and private equity thats funded by 90% funded by sofi?

@PeterAPatriot @pnbphilosophy @MattWalshBlog I guess you could appeal the sentencing, in that case maybe a higher judge is given the responsibility of reviewing and determining if the sentence was just. But that shouldn’t take decades should it? Maybe months?

@PeterAPatriot @pnbphilosophy @MattWalshBlog I think I would agree that there should be an appeals process, but the buck has to stop somewhere. And if not at a jury of your peers then where?

There is no good moral reason why she should not simply be taken outside the morning after her conviction and hanged. This woman has lost her right to exist.