Robin Broosk-Assistant
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Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks
How can it be that Japan's long-term yields are up so much, but this isn't lifting the Yen. The reason is that the "shadow yield" - what markets demand to compensate them for risk of a debt crisis - is far above observed yields. Yields aren't high enough. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-quiet-im…
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If we go back to the Strait of Hormuz being closed, the resulting supply shock - for reasonable estimates of the price elasticity of demand - could take Brent to $125, which was the peak in March and April. Inventory drawdowns haven't changed that number.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-much-wil…

English

How can it be that Japan's long-term yields are up so much, but this isn't lifting the Yen. The reason is that the "shadow yield" - what markets demand to compensate them for risk of a debt crisis - is far above observed yields. Yields aren't high enough.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-quiet-im…

English

Markets are ignoring the recent escalation in the Gulf. The Dollar isn't rising as it has in the past, because markets are getting de-sensitized to the back and forth. But that's dangerous. We're in a quagmire. Another Iran blockade will become necessary.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/welcome-to-t…

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How high can oil prices go if we return to an all-out "hot" war? The absolute peak is $125 and that's independent of inventory drawdowns. In the near term, we should be in a range of $80-90, which I'd given right after the peace agreement on June 17...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-much-wil…

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I share my real-time TRADE alert (entry & exit points) on WhatsApp, free to join ✅
Click below to join my group 👇
Here’s the link: wa.me/16059748709/?t…
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