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Most people watch price. Smart money watches the MVRV Z-Score.
Here’s what it measures:
Market Cap = what Bitcoin is worth right now
Realized Cap = what everyone actually paid for their BTC
The Z-Score shows how stretched that gap is.
When it’s deep red (above 7): market is overheated. People are sitting on huge unrealized gains. Historically = top zone.
When it’s green (near 0 or below): the opposite. Price is at or below what people paid. Capitulation. Historically = bottom zone.
It’s not perfect. But it’s the cleanest signal we have for “are we greedy or are we in pain?”
Save this. You’ll want it next cycle.

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