Tobi

$BTC, our 63k bottom call, increasing the boldness The bottom is in for two months at least (please read the details before concluding) Five days ago, I mentioned that we likely see a potential bottom in our purple POI, and do so around 63k. Drew my arrow and squigly, and so here we are. Yesterday, price reached that level, and so I repeated this is likely a significant bottom. This also was the next significant area where I seriously consider flipping back to bullish after going bearish from 81k above us. I know it feels like Yesterday that price was at 81k, almost as if flipping bullish again here is a flip-flop. But in a bear market, bitcoin (crypto) drops fast, and a bearish bias doesn't have to be held for a very long time. $BTC dropped another 23% since I flipped bearish so that proves enough. My main stance also has been that I do not believe this to be a 60%+ bear market, nor will we drop much lower in the second half of the year 2026. So, with everything being called out in advance (since 81k), the level responding as it should, and local confirmation saying (to large extent) that this is a significant low, with quantitative data showing at least 2 months of repair necessary to undo the damage, right off our level, in a bear market, that repair means upside. So, I am going to make a bold call, based on all that data, based on all the sentiment, even ancient bears coming back up and suddenly calling for 50k, that's the perfect time to think this low is likely going to hold for at least 2 months. You may think: "what's the point". But it allows us to farm trades in the range and know that every proximity to range low is a good long, as well as early visits to range high (tbd) is a good short. And what happens after, might also become a surprise. I understand everyone is bearish, and I don't want this information to be taken like gospel. In recent time, we have seen I can be wrong as well. Although my bullish bias did end up holding into a range for a long time and resulting in nice trades off it, it was wrong and I expressed myself too loudly towards the end of it. So instead, I decided to change the details, into how I just think the low holds, and anything forth-flowing from that is natural, the tone remains the same however (bullish from 63k). And I will simply continue to take logical trades from there using that bias. Because I can't go against the data, the system and what we planned. So, after turning bearish at 81k, I will be bullish for a while again at 63k. I believe a range forms, and it's most likely favourably traded longside (but I will also be taking shorts). Not the most popular opinion. Many are busy engagement farming the bear market, of course. But I promise you the peak (today, Yesterday), happened at the worst times. Seeing some opinion hedging happening of how this could be a bottom as Feb March in bear markets are green. But without any action, it's just opinion hedging. So I just want to keep it honest and clear, what my thoughts are and how I see this progress whether it's right or wrong. Do not be surprised if we lose the low before end of March, just look at my trades, how I act and whether my bias changes again. But many of you know that I stick to my bias for a long time, it usually plays out for a long time, makes a lot of money, until right, or proven wrong. Again, a weekly close (or anticipated earlier per clear post), invalidates the bias and we can talk about 50k or below. But for now, that's not the case as long as our 63k is the bottom idea holds, as well as our "this won't be a 70-80% bear market". Cautiously for now by holding a low risk long, and 1 spot buy in, but more strongly later if confirmation leads us further.

The first "hard call" I made, was going below 87.7k. Not many believed me especially at the local top we shorted openly at 93/94k multiple times. As suddenly, it was all "100k+ this, bull market is back that, my elliot wave count this, my bottom call they didn't make in live time that" Clear signs of the high timeframe bearish sentiment resetting into a bullish low timeframe one, making me pull one short after the other. Now, we are finally here, below 87.7k, and all those shorts have paid out. I now closed all my shorts, as you know. And I am just making this tweet, to make you look around and notice: how the bears are popping up again now talking about bear markets and talking about lower? I am asking you now because by the time we are back at 112k, most if not all of that will be gone again. After successfully calling 87.7k, part one of the "2 hard calls", 112k is the second hard call we made, and which is in progress now. And slowly but surely, with all confirmation we receive of sentiment confirming our analysis, it is shaping up very favorably. Not to say 112k could come and we could still resume and make new lows. That is totally possible. But that is not the point. The point is, when 112k comes, no one will even dare to talk about bear markets anymore as they are doing now. Just look at 94k. At that time, those exact bears kept silent the entire time into 94k and now talk about it again at this exact time price is below 87.7k. It should be the other way around (sell high, buy low, not sell low, buy high). But it isn't, just because... ...that, is exactly how clear and easy it is to read the sentiment and how easily people expose themselves on X, and with our analysis lining up, how high conviction should be, and how high my conviction is to stay against it like clockwork. Bearish from 94k -> 87.7k, completed. ✅ Bullish from 87.7k -> 112k, in progress. ⌛️ We are living to tell the tale.

$BTC - There is a 91% chance the weekly bottom is in (plus or minus a sweep). In other words, 91% chance there will be no weekly closes below the current low. Fear is everywhere. People talking about waiting out the price action, telling you the bull run is over, telling you to be on the sidelines. This post is not saying new ATH's are guaranteed to come. For that, I will provide other analysis. We first need to call the bottom before even thinking about new ATH's. Yes, I do promise new ATH's. But this post is not about that. This post is about not selling, about not falling for the sentiment that the "bull run is over" and about instead getting excited about these prices. Because, the fear is all just a narrative. One that didn't arise at 125k, one that didn't even arise when we were at 110k and kept dropping. None of that was called for, and here it is, the sentiment in full swing, suddenly, and at the worst time. So this post isn't only to silence the "it's over" or "be careful" or "wait for the trend" posts (whether subtly or loudly), but also to, if the bear market indeed started, to prevent you from selling now (nfa) at the worst time. Because once we do get the move I keep on calling and calling and calling, the narrative will change again. "The bull run is back", "The trend has shifted", and all other quotes that promote you to buy high, sell higher, or more frequently : panic sell lower. Indeed, this post is telling you to NOT wait for the trend change. Because that will just sucker you in on the next local high. Selling now, is going with the sentiment, and waiting for the trend to change is also going with the sentiment. So no matter where you entered or are yet to enter, I have good news, because one of my core chart elements tells me there will be no weekly closes anymore below the current low, before seeing 112k and + (118k) with a 91% chance. So forget about waiting for the "trend", or being careful, or fearing your hold in essence from reading the in-between-the-lines of almost every post out there. I have an analysis telling you the exact opposite, to help you get in before the trend. (Buy before the trend, sell into the trend). The analysis It's one of my favorite types of analyses, the one of capitulation volume. "True capitulation" is where high volume sells, and gets absorbed by even higher volume. The extraction of large funds and companies (the whale degens i.e. the victims) by liquidity generating whales (the winners) So how do we find capitulation volume? It's again the rule of three, which is everywhere in trading markets. For those reasons, this rule is also often abused and overused. Trading isn't as simple as "just use the rule of three". So I like to do my own approach called "the layered rule of three", layered underneath an effective trait of markets. Here, the layer is the volume of weekly (=bull-bear cycle core timeframe) candles. So the essence here of the layered rule of three is simple: if three candles in a row go red with respectable volume peaking above all else, that's capitulation and a bottom. The complexity of this analysis goes beyond it, and it's a bit more nuanced (two small candles could add to large ones, and small green volume candles or retests do not reset the three-in-a-row red streak) But other than that, in simple terms: that's it. I always encourage you to back test and crosscheck for yourself what the action looked like in history. Never believe anything randomly without getting the feel and nature of it yourself first. So for your own reference, I'm giving you the weekly candles where it happened before according to my calibration (with local order flow verification, just as confirmation, not relevant here): 31 March 2025 2 Sep 2024 17 Jan 2022 21 Jun 2021 9 March 2020 18 Nov 2019 26 March 2018 17 Aug 2015 11 Aug 2014 2 more dates prior, not given They all give the pre-historic capitulation volume (on aggregated spot volume BTC:INDEX charts). And from the closes of these candles, price moved either ➡️At least 35% before continuing the bear market (would lead us to 118k) (2 out of 11 times) when ignoring the covid crash which was just a short term shakeout) ➡️Or new ATH's, continuing the bull run (8 out of 11 times) ➡️Or kept going down (1 out of 11 times) So that also answers from one statistical angle that the bull run is not over with a probability of 75%. Add that on top of the 112k is 99% certainly coming, as you know I am very confident in that level. And 118k (the 35% move), has a 91% chance of coming, as per analysis here (10/11 = 91%). Summary So that's it. A very strong and daring call to tell you the bottom is close, no new weekly closes below the current weekly low (a small wick below is possible, who cares), before 112k with a 99% chance, 118k with a 91% chance (this analysis), and the bull run continuing with a chance of 75% chance (new ath's). That is just 1 statistic. There is way, way more to it. I spend 12 hours a day (re)fin(d)ing these. Here is just another big one to give you a strong idea, continuing the theses, despite my mistake of closing the last long. Analysis still holds, execution mistakes are always possible, the sized and fresh large capital from selling other type of assets is reopened on spot instead and is the current one being run in the journey of trades. Hope this clears up the timeline of all the "trend shift waiters" or bear market believers. Enjoy.

$BTC htf longs And there is the move back up. ✅ Surprised ? Our community, not in the slightest. We said: consolidation is coming for a bit and called out the recent low to be formed once again using that plan, explaining you exactly why we would move back up locally as we hit range low again hitting just under 90k, right back to 92k. Indeed, every time that happened, we anticipated this pattern because at range lows each time: ➡️Shorts turning excess ➡️Along with macro bear bottom calls; ➡️Bears making their posts of how this is a bearish retest, or continuing to defend their positions with words. When you have to defend your positions that often, your bias is likely wrong, a tell-tale. Meanwhile, we established that we are just consolidating, before a move higher as we continue to hold our high timeframe longs. Can't stress enough to just continue holding, not get over fearful at local range lows (or over excited at local range highs). The time to get excited was at our local TP at 94.7k, the exact local top. Now, back to neutral management as we consolidate. That is the plan of our high timeframe long, to mostly hold and ride the upside. So far so excellent. The longer we range by the way and revisit local range highs here at 92k again, the higher the chance for continuation higher. And remember our bullish bias as backbone: no weekly closes below the low, instead building structure and slowly moving higher. Exactly what we are seeing.

🚨 BITCOIN IS BEING HELD IN PLACE, AND IT’S ABOUT TO BREAK If you’re wondering why BTC keeps hovering around $85k-$90k no matter how many people try to push it… I have the answer for you. And it likely resolves within the next ~72 hours. Here’s what’s actually going on: Bitcoin is sitting right on a critical options flip level around $88k ABOVE THAT LEVEL: Market makers are effectively forced to sell into green cancles and buy dips. Any rally is limited and the price goes right back to the middle. BELOW THAT LEVEL: The behavior changes completely, selling pressure feeds on itself and volatility grows instead of getting absorbed. That’s why price keeps getting pulled back to the same area over and over again. It’s not because of traders. Now look at why $90K keeps rejecting. There’s a massive concentration of call options sitting at $90,000. Dealers are short those calls. Every time price pushes toward that level, they hedge by selling spot BTC. So what looks like “sell pressure” is really forced supply showing up exactly where traders expect momentum. That’s why every $90K attempt fails miserably. On the downside, $85K is doing the opposite. There’s heavy put positioning there. As price drops, dealers hedge by buying spot. That’s why dips are bought immediately. This creates a tight range that feels completely normal on the surface, but it’s not stable at all. The reason this matters now is because of timing. A large chunk of option exposure will expire on DECEMBER 26, the day after christmas. Roughly three quarters of the current gamma profile disappears at expiry. Once we get past December 26, that pressure will be completely GONE. Not because people suddenly change their minds, but because the forces pinning price in place are gone. Btw, I’ve been studying macro for the last 22 years, and I’ve been in Bitcoin since 2013. I called the last two major market tops and bottoms. When the next bottom is in and I start buying BTC again, I’ll say it here publicly so you can copy me. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

$BTC 92k, our short area is reached. As promised, I am starting another short now. Main target 87k. Let's get four wins in a row. Alright price moved to our short area of interest. Didn't short last time into the push up, just closed the longs and rested a bit. I mean we took 3 trades in 1 week and found all three winners on the swing trade timeframe top-to-bottom & bottom-to-top. But now we have weekly open below us as well as weekend lows., with a decent distance and we are in a good resistance area. So started shorting here half size of base size again. If NYO takes highs, then going full size. 87k is coming, that is the main target as well as where I get interested to long again. I also set some limit TP partials of 30% at the weekly open in advance. Enjoy. Plan has been planned out, we got what we wanted, so now we start executing again. (In an educational, non NFA way of course.)

Shorted $BTC at 91.5k and here is why. - Rejected 4h swing structure (93k) - Took swing liquidity - LTF shift in structure - Big imbalance to the downside (liquidity) Main target is 88k. Lets see!