Dr. Gerrit Hansen

It's a very common belief that China's high emissions or rapid emissions growth are mainly due to export industries. Like all misconceptions, this one persists because people want to believe in it. In reality, trade (exports net of imports) accounts for about 10% of China's emissions, and trade-linked emissions peaked in 2007 when the global financial crisis hit. Peaked in absolute terms that is, not just as a share of emissions. Start from the fact that China's two highest-emitting sectors are steel and cement. Less than 10% of the steel and none of the cement are exported. China simply uses extremely large amounts of carbon-intensive commodities for domestic demand. My guess is that the myth of export-driven emissions persists for two reasons. One is people want China's emissions to be about "them", which gives them agency (if only through guilt). The other is people who want climate change to be the fault of "the west" alone, even more than it is in reality. I guess both of these also have to do with not wanting to engage with the complexity of the country, and rather ascribe China's emissions to a factor they (think they) can understand without peeking inside the country. To be clear, export industries are one important part of China's emissions, and were a very significant part of the growth in emissions during the COVID pandemic. There are ways in which the rest of the world can influence China's emissions trajectory, including through trade, as well as diplomacy, investments, technology etc. but it's important to start with the reality of China's emissions and their drivers.