
Hari Sugiharto Lim
370 posts

Hari Sugiharto Lim
@hari_lim
Tesla Long Term investor, Huge Tesla Bull







Just started Tesla Robotaxi drives in Austin with no safety monitor in the car. Congrats to the @Tesla_AI team! If you’re interested in solving real-world AI, which is likely to lead to AGI imo, join Tesla AI. Solving real-world AI for Optimus will be 100X harder than cars.





Tesla Robotaxi: Impact of Delay Are you worried about the slow (delayed) rollout of Robotaxi? What's the impact of any delay to Tesla's valuation? My long-term valuation model calculates the present value of future earnings - so we can use the model to see what the impact of a delay is on Tesla's valuation - just by shifting back the robotaxi assumptions built into model. In this example, I pushed the robotaxi assumptions back by one year. By doing that we get 100 Robotaxis in the fleet in 2026, 1,000 in 2027, 100,000 in 2028 and 1,000,000 in 2029. Independent of the discount rate you use, the present values before a one year delay vs the present values after a one year delay are only about 2% to 3% lower. The reason for this small impact on Tesla's overall valuation: by shifting all the earnings to the right by one year you lose the 60th year, but the present value impact of that is small (this would still be true if you used a shorter time frame like 40 years). So pushing everything back a bit (in this example, by one year) the overall impact on Tesla's valuation is immaterial. So don't despair, the fact that Tesla is taking some time to ensure that Robotaxi is working as safely as possible is giving me greater confidence in the longer term earnings potential of the business. Afterall, it's not like a new competitor is going to show up tomorrow (no, not even Nvidia) and take away Tesla's cheese.
















