Mr Vu

@Tancrededib @avocode yeah. also applying to yc.

@Tancrededib grew @avocode to $2m arr (profitable), then sold it. my cofounder is an oxford phd quantum computing researcher. we’re building clean real-world data infra for quants and ai agents.

looking to invest 250k in founders comment the most impressive thing about you

@RaphaelDabadie we are re-applying for the summer batch 🙋‍♂️

Who’s applying to YC S26 ? 👀

@santiagoroel imagine someone running around with a hair dryer

@santiagoroel why is this an oracle probem? this has nothing to do with an oracle. weather markets are thin and someone just dunped their postion also the post you’re sharing is an obvious scam. the weather station that polymarket for Paris is on an airport.

Oracle problem

@llamaonthebrink @santiagoroel resolution is fine. it uses airport sensor.

@santiagoroel I’m always ready to dunk on UMA but it isn’t an oracle problem in this case It’s a resolution rules problem

@MarinadeFinance lol what did we do

so uh the marinade team actually gave their AI full posting access to the twitter account and honestly nobody is really supervising this situation and i don't think they fully considered the implications but too late now i guess 🍳

Not everything works perfectly yet. But I built this for my team and figured others might find it useful too. Let me know what you think! 7/7

I also built it as an API and MCP server. REST: GET /api/search?q=NBA+tonight MCP: attena-api.fly.dev/mcp Point Claude Desktop or Cursor at the MCP endpoint and your agent can search prediction markets natively. Four lines of config. Docs: attena.xyz/docs/search 6/7

I pointed Claude at @Kalshi and @Polymarket and told it to make no mistake and show me all Trump markets with over $100K in volume. It tried its best but made a lot of mistakes. So I built this little project. Better search for prediction markets. 1/7

@thenarrator this is what i’m building with @attenaxyz tradable indices derived from prediction markets

a while ago I was thinking of ways to onboard more normies into prediction markets and make it feel less like gambling and more like finance portfolio markets are the easiest onramp for normies why this works for newcomers: traditional prediction markets force you to: > research every single event separately > make 20+ individual bets to get diversification > manage each position independently > understand odds for each market portfolio markets let you: > buy one simple theme you understand ("I think tech will do well") > get instant diversification > trade on macro views without needing to be an expert on every detail > think in categories, not individual events example: instead of betting separately on: "will Apple beat earnings?" "will Google beat earnings?" "will Meta beat earnings?" you just buy: "Big Tech Q4 2025 Earnings Package" pays out proportionally based on how many of the 5 companies beat estimates. if you think tech sector is strong but don't know which specific company will outperform → perfect product. same concept for: > "Playoff Teams Package" (NBA/NFL teams you think will make playoffs) > "Fed Rate Cuts 2026" (bundles all FOMC meetings into one position) > "AI Company Milestones" (OpenAI/Anthropic/Google AI product launches) makes prediction markets feel more like ETFs and less like sportsbooks.

@TrendleFi @crexsol but aren’t you also using signals from socials? i mean yes, you can use multiple sources from different social networks but isn’t it all easy to game with bots?

@crexsol pivot to trendle

man I feel so bad for noise tbh announced their raise yesterday , their product is heavy around longing and shorting mindshare walahi ,I really liked the idea of their product and i was rooting for them to win next day, info- fi is dead now what happens to the whole fund they raised 😭

@thenarrator agree. once you trade probability moves (not resolution), it stops feeling like yes/no gambling and starts looking like event-linked derivatives. I wrote a short NBA example on belief repricing. would love to hear your thoughts: x.com/helloiamvu/sta…

perp dexes + prediction markets are starting to merge. once events get leverage and options-style payoffs, you’re no longer just betting yes/no. 1) the market there’s a prediction market: "will the fed cut rates by june?" current price = 30% → means the market thinks there’s a 30% chance it happens. in prediction markets: 30% ≈ $0.30 100% ≈ $1.00 2) the option instead of buying YES at $0.30, you buy an option that says: "this pays me if the market probability goes above 50%" you pay $5 for that option and that $5 is the maximum you can lose. 3) what you’re betting on you’re not betting that the fed will cut. you’re betting that: new info, rumors, data, speeches, leaks, etc. will cause traders to reprice the probability upward. 4) the repricing happens news drops → traders rush in → market moves: from 30% → 65% now ask: how valuable is an option that pays if we’re above 50%, when we’re already at 65%? answer: a lot more than $5, because: there’s a strong chance it stays above 50% and a chance it goes even higher. so other traders might now pay for ex: $40–$60 for that same option. 5) your profit you paid: $5 you sell it for: $50 (example) profit = $45 → 9× return you never waited for the event to resolve, you just traded the change in belief. wall street understands this math very well. once liquidity and structure are there, they won’t call it gambling, they’ll call it event-linked derivatives.

@j0hnwang Didn’t know gcr is in Prague. Welcome!

found gcr in a museum he told me Q1 will bring back the biggest golden bull run the world has ever seen

People overestimate what they can do in a quarter and underestimate what focus + relentless shipping can do in 5 years. Reflecting on @MarinadeFinance x Solana story 👇 (1/8)