@wfithian Somewhat off topic, but is there a list of open problems in stats like the erdos problems?
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Henry Bemis
10.6K posts
Henry Bemis
@henrybemis13
Was Just seeking an answer to the question what is an American? Now at Bluesky only with same handle
🇺🇸 Katılım November 2016
2.8K Takip Edilen200 Takipçiler
2026 Yıllık Özeti
@henrybemis13 hesabının Twitter yılını gör
This conjecture was, by far, the most interesting open problem in my area of statistics. Any statistician would have been excited to construct this counterexample, and I’d have been thrilled for them.
GPT-5.6 solved it, but I wish a human had.
Edgar Dobriban@EdgarDobriban
AI has helped resolve an important question in statistics. In the area of multiple hypothesis testing, the goal of controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) has been introduced in a seminal paper by Benjamini and Hochberg (1995). They also introduced a method (the Benjamini-Hochberg or BH method) and proved it controls the FDR. This method has been widely adopted in modern high-throughput science, including in genomics, astronomy, economics, etc. The paper has has garnered more than 130,000 citations to date. However Benjamini and Hochberg showed FDR control only when the data for the individual tests are *independent*. In practice, these data are often dependent; a good example is data on genetic variants due to linkage disequilibrium. Later work has focused on extending the validity of the BH procedure, e.g., to a form of positive dependence by Benjamini and Yekutieli (2001). The question of when the BH procedure controls the FDR has remained open. Over the last twenty years, many authors, including Reiner-Benaim (2007), Kim and van de Wiel (2008), Benjamini (2010), Sarkar (2023), Sarkar and Zhang (2025), have conjectured that the BH procedure controls the FDR for two-sided tests using any correlated Gaussian data. These authors have presented both theoretical and empirical evidence supporting, but not directly showing, the conjecture. With the help of AI (specifically GPT-5.6 Sol Pro), I have settled the question in the negative: The Benjamini-Hochberg procedure does *not* generally control the false discovery rate at the desired level for correlated two-sided Gaussian tests. This was done by exhibiting a Gaussian factor model for which, at a nominal level alpha=0.01, the false discovery rate is proved to be FDR>0.0104. There is a lot of interesting commentary to be made: 1. This result should be of interest to everybody in the field of statistics. Emmanuel Candes of Stanford University once called the false discovery rate and the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure "one of the two most important developments in statistics after 1950" (the other being James-Stein shrinkage). The present conjecture is probably the most central question about FDR/BH that was unresolved to date. 2. GPT-5.6 one-shot the problem after 90 minutes of reasoning, whereas with 5.5 I was not able to solve it even after iterating with multiple parallel agents for perhaps 20 hours. So the capability improvement is quite real. Exciting times to live in! 3. The argument is not especially surprising, but it does combine an asymptotic approach (standard for FDR analysis, see e.g., Genovese and Wasserman, Efron, etc) with a numerical certificate in a way that would be pretty non-standard in the field. Once we have the specific example, then straightforward simulations also support that the false discovery rate is indeed higher than the nominal value (see attached fig). 4. The current degree of violation over the nominal level is relatively small (0.104 vs 0.1). So the importance of this result is mainly conceptual. The practical implications remain to be determined. Overall, an exciting development! Preprint is available here (faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/upl…) and will be on arxiv tonight; supporting code is here (github.com/dobriban/BH).
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@JamesSurowiecki The issue here is backing into the player and taking a dive. The shielding was fine. He had possession of the ball
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This is obstruction by the player "guarding" the ball, and should be called every time. Instead, it's never called, and the player actually trying to get to the ball is routinely called for a foul, as in this clip. Incredibly frustrating.
Geeb@Geeb1872
Refs need to cut this shite out. By far my biggest pet hate in football.
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@oscarcsims @2nothda In baseball, 70% of players in the most competitive league are from USA but it’s still hard to win all the WBC titles competitions
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@oscarcsims @2nothda If we define dominance as winning almost all international competitions involving each country’s best players, than we clearly dominate basketball
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Strongest argument against the tedious “we would dominate you at soccer if we cared” yankposting is the World Baseball Classic. They don’t even dominate the world championships of a sport they invented at a tournament they always host and fund!
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@oscarcsims @2nothda Just like the WBC is pretty much a crap shoot (which is part of the reason it’s so fun to watch)
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@oscarcsims @2nothda …you’re probably right that like baseball, soccer has a lot of randomness, so it would be hard to dominate in the same way we dominate basketball
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Weird that soccer development is being framed online as a socialist success story when in reality it’s the one narrow domain in which euros are more hyper-capitalistic than us
Kevin Van Valkenburg@KVanValkenburg
I do think one point in favor of the American soccer model that isn't coming up much (outside @jaycaspiankang, who wrote a whole book about all this) is the trail of broken boys who get chewed up and spit out by the Euro/Latin academy model, who are left with no education.
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@HendrickD82 I’m actually glad there are more international players in basketball and baseball. We get accused of being parochial because of usa football but those two sports are truly international and that’s a good thing
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@HendrickD82 We still dominate basketball and baseball and we’re second best in hockey
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America has 4 major sports.
The 5 best players in basketball are 4 Europeans and a Canadian.
The best player in baseball is Japanese.
The best hockey players are Canadian or Russian.
The only sport they have the best player is the one sport thats exclusive to America.
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@WanToImprove2 @liverpxxl9 @SherwoodStrauss This actually exists more in Olympic sports in the USA than in other team sports where kids are actually recruited at such a young age
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@liverpxxl9 @SherwoodStrauss This ruthlessness absolutely exists in other sports, it’s a terrible take
If Americans can’t reproduce the EU football model, it’s certainly not for lack of brutality
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European soccer greatness isn't some utopian fairytale that we Americans can easily imitate
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@justhere4fun87 @Tom_D_B_ I had good ball skills but lacked speed in HS. Also hit a growth spurt, which made me more muscular but even slower
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@justhere4fun87 @Tom_D_B_ But also Americans who never played soccer beyond rec league don’t understand how difficult running in soccer is, requiring both decent speed and endurance
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I think the thing is that Americans don’t really have a game where you have to control a ball with anything other than your hands, and so (perhaps understandably, let’s be charitable) have no conception of the skill required to control one with your feet, legs, chest and head.
Scott McKay@TheHayride
The reason soccer is "the world's most popular sport" is that it's the cheapest one. All you need is a ball. That burned out car over there is one goal and that dumpster over there is the other. You don't need any equipment. You don't even need shoes. Kids with no hands can play soccer. Most of the best players seem to be from Third World countries where they live in mudhuts and wear Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl Champions shirts every day. Stop talking to me about what a beautiful, sophisticated game it is. It isn't. Yes, there are plays. There are plays in every sport. But football, basketball and baseball are far, far more sophisticated and require greater skill and athleticism than soccer, and you people sound like idiots trying to claim otherwise.
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@calecampbell88 Soccer is really the only sport that is super popular in more than 10 countries
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Only 4 other countries seriously play hockey. About 7-8 legitimately play baseball, basketball is a popular minor sport around the world but only about 5ish countries are really serious about it, 0 play football. We are “world class” at sports that other countries don’t play.
Darren Rovell@darrenrovell
The game that we are actually world class at — ice hockey — at top youth levels costs double soccer.
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@theoceanblooms Throwing bananas at black players and chanting about gas chambers…
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@theoceanblooms The tomahawk chop and chief wahoo are pretty fucked up, but they pale in comparison to European football
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